阿勒泰地区区域性寒潮过程频数及强度变化特征

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-03-0451

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新疆阿勒泰地区是我国寒潮活动高频区，寒潮天气对其冰雪经济造成严重威胁。基于1960—2023年该地区7个国家级气象站逐日最低气温资料，分析区域性寒潮频数、强度及其变化特征，并构建寒潮综合强度指数。结果表明：1）1960—2023年阿勒泰地区共发生区域性寒潮833次，年均13次；冬季（11月—次年3月）区域性寒潮占比达72.5%；区域性寒潮集中在9月下旬至次年3月中旬，占比为84.3%，其中2月中旬区域性特强寒潮占该时段区域性寒潮总数的52.9%，显示强寒潮活动在冬季中后期高度集中。2）区域性寒潮过程呈显著减少趋势[-0.5次·（10 a）^-1，P<0.05]，但1996—2023年区域性特强寒潮增多至每年平均4次，接近1961—1990年峰值，呈现“总量减少、极端性增强”的演变特征。3）寒潮强度具有明显季节分异：冬季以特强寒潮为主（占比40.4%），春、秋季则以一般寒潮为主；区域性特强寒潮最大24 h降温平均达10.9 ℃（极值为18.5 ℃），累计降温幅度平均为17.6 ℃（极值为30.1 ℃），冬季降温幅度明显高于春、秋季。4）冬季寒潮综合强度指数为0.38，明显高于春季（-0.97）和秋季（-1.06）；近30 a来区域性特强寒潮强度呈上升趋势，表明极端寒潮的强度近期进一步增加。5）冬季降水量距平与寒潮频数距平的同步性达84.1%（P<0.01），寒潮频数距平与寒潮综合强度距平的同步性达77.7%（P<0.01），表明冬季降雪偏多年往往寒潮过程偏多、强度偏强、致灾风险偏高。

关键词: 阿勒泰, 区域性寒潮, 寒潮综合强度

Abstract:

The Altay region of Xinjiang is a high-frequency area for cold waves in China, and cold wave weather poses a serious threat to its ice and snow economy. Based on the daily minimum temperature data from seven national meteorological stations in the region from 1960 to 2023, the frequency, intensity, and variation characteristics of regional cold waves were analyzed, and a comprehensive cold wave intensity index was constructed. The results show that: 1) A total of 833 regional cold waves occurred in Altay from 1960 to 2023, with an annual average of 13.0 times. The regional cold waves in winter (November to March of the following year) accounted for 72.5%, and regional cold waves were concentrated from late September to mid-March of the following year, accounting for 84.3%. The regional extremely strong cold waves in mid-February accounted for 52.9% of the total number of regional cold waves during this period, indicating that the activity of strong cold waves was highly concentrated in the middle and late winter. 2) The frequency of regional cold waves has shown a significant decreasing trend (-0.5 times·(10 a)^-1, P<0.05). However, from 1996 to 2023, the number of regional extremely strong cold waves increased to an average of 4.0 times per year, approaching the peak level during the period from 1961 to 1990, presenting an evolution characteristic of “total reduction and enhanced extremality”. 3) The intensity of cold waves showed significant seasonal variations: in winter, extremely strong cold waves were predominant (accounting for 40.4%), while in spring and autumn, general cold waves were more common. The maximum 24-hour temperature drop of regional extremely strong cold waves averaged 10.9 ℃ (with a maximum of 18.5 ℃), and the cumulative temperature drop averaged 17.6 ℃ (with a maximum of 30.1 ℃). The temperature drop in winter was significantly higher than that in spring and autumn. 4) The comprehensive intensity index of cold waves in winter was 0.38, significantly higher than that in spring (-0.97) and autumn (-1.06). Over the past 30 years, the intensity of regional extremely strong cold waves has shown an upward trend, indicating that the intensity of extremely cold waves has further increased recently. 5) The synchronicity between the anomaly of winter precipitation and the anomaly of cold wave frequency reached 84.1% (P<0.01), and the synchronicity between the anomaly of cold wave frequency and the anomaly of the comprehensive intensity of cold waves reached 77.7% (P<0.01). This indicates that years with more precipitation in winter tend to have more frequent and stronger cold waves and a higher risk of disasters.

Key words: Altay region, regional cold wave, comprehensive intensity

中图分类号:

P425.5+4

博尔楠, 赵江伟, 桑哈尔, 努尔江, 王红, 李敖. 阿勒泰地区区域性寒潮过程频数及强度变化特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2026, 44(3): 451-460.

BO Er’nan, ZHAO Jiangwei, SANG Ha’er, NU Er’jiang, WANG Hong, LI Ao. Frequency and intensity variation characteristics of regional cold wave processes in Altay region[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2026, 44(3): 451-460.

图/表 14

图1 阿勒泰地区国家级气象站分布

Fig.1 Distribution of national meteorological stations in Altay region

表1 降温过程基本概念

Tab.1 Basic concepts of cooling process

概念	定义
降温日	当日24 h降温（ΔT₂₄）<0 ℃，定义为一个降温日
降温过程初日	ΔT₂₄≥0 ℃转为ΔT₂₄<0 ℃的初日
降温过程终日	ΔT₂₄<0 ℃持续至ΔT₂₄≥0 ℃的前一日
过程持续日数	降温过程初日和终日之间的天数
过程累计降温幅度	降温过程中所有ΔT₂₄的总和
过程最大24 h降温	降温过程中最大24 h降温（ΔT_24-max）
过程最大48 h降温	降温过程中最大48 h降温（ΔT_48-max）
过程最大72 h降温	降温过程中最大72 h降温（ΔT_72-max）
过程最低气温	降温过程中的日最低气温（T_min）

表2 各等级寒潮过程标准

Tab.2 Standards for cold wave processes at all levels

一般寒潮	强寒潮	特强寒潮
ΔT_24-max≥8 ℃或ΔT_48-max≥10 ℃或 ΔT_72-max≥12 ℃，且T_min≤4 ℃	ΔT_24-max≥10 ℃或ΔT_48-max≥12 ℃或 ΔT_72-max≥14 ℃，且T_min≤2 ℃	ΔT_24-max≥12 ℃或ΔT_48-max≥14 ℃或 ΔT_72-max≥16 ℃，且T_min≤0 ℃

图2 1960—2023年阿勒泰地区区域性寒潮过程的季节分布

Fig.2 Seasonal distribution of regional cold wave processes in Altay region from 1960 to 2023

表3 1960—2023年阿勒泰地区不同等级区域性寒潮过程季节分布及其占比

Tab.3 Seasonal distribution and proportion of cold wave processes with different levels in Altay region from 1960 to 2023

季节	一般寒潮		强寒潮		特强寒潮
季节	频数/次	占比/%	频数/次	占比/%	频数/次	占比/%
春季	68.0	73.9	18.5	20.1	5.5	6.0
秋季	94.5	70.8	27.5	20.6	11.5	8.6
冬季	214.0	35.4	146.0	24.2	244.0	40.4

图3 1960—2023年阿勒泰地区区域性寒潮及不同等级区域性寒潮过程频数和占比逐月分布（a）区域性寒潮，（b）一般寒潮，（c）强寒潮，（d）特强寒潮

Fig.3 Monthly distribution of frequency and proportion of regional cold wave process and regional cold wave process with different levels in Altay region from 1960 to 2023 (a) regional cold wave process, (b) general cold wave, (c) strong cold wave, (d) extremely strong cold wave

表4 1960—2023年11月下旬—2月下旬不同等级寒潮过程频数及占比

Tab.4 The frequency and proportion of cold wave processes with different levels from mid-November to late February during 1960-2023

时段	一般寒潮		强寒潮		特强寒潮
时段	频数/次	占比/%	频数/次	占比/%	频数/次	占比/%
11月下旬	11.0	28.2	10.0	25.6	18.0	46.2
12月上旬	12.5	32.5	10.0	26.0	16.0	41.6
12月中旬	12.5	30.9	10.0	24.7	18.0	44.4
12月下旬	15.5	30.4	12.0	23.5	23.5	46.1
1月上旬	12.0	38.1	8.0	25.4	11.5	36.5
1月中旬	16.0	38.6	8.0	19.3	17.5	42.2
1月下旬	14.0	36.8	8.0	21.1	16.0	42.1
2月上旬	11.0	31.0	9.0	25.4	15.5	43.7
2月中旬	18.5	35.6	6.0	11.5	27.5	52.9
2月下旬	13.5	29.0	13.0	28.0	20.0	43.0

图4 1960—2023年阿勒泰地区区域性寒潮过程变化趋势（a）年，（b）春季，（c）秋季，（d）冬季

Fig.4 Variation trends of regional cold wave processes in Altay region from 1960 to 2023 (a) year, (b) spring, (c) autumn, (d) winter

表5 1960—2023年阿勒泰地区不同等级寒潮过程不同持续日数出现频数及占比

Tab.5 The frequency and proportion of different duration of cold wave processes with different levels in Altay region from 1960 to 2023

过程持续日数/d	一般寒潮		强寒潮		特强寒潮
过程持续日数/d	频数/次	占比/%	频数/次	占比/%	频数/次	占比/%
1	48	12.7	8	4.2	2	0.8
2	190	50.1	86	44.8	82	31.4
3	106	28.0	72	37.5	118	45.2
4	26	6.9	23	12.0	49	18.8
5	8	2.1	2	1.0	7	2.7
6	1	0	1	0.5	2	0.8
7	0	0	0	0	1	0.4

图5 1960—2023年阿勒泰地区区域性一般（a、b）、强（c、d）及特强（e、f）寒潮过程最大24 h降温和累计降温幅度季节（a、c、e）及月际（b、d、f）变化

Fig.5 Seasonal （a, c, e） and monthly （b, d, f） variations of the maximum 24-hour temperature cooling and cumulative temperature cooling amplitude of general （a, b）, strong （c, d） and extremely strong （e, f） regional cold waves in Altay region from 1960 to 2023

图6 1960—2023年阿勒泰地区区域性寒潮过程综合强度的月变化

Fig.6 Monthly variation of the comprehensive intensity of regional cold wave processes in Altay region from 1960 to 2023

图7 1960—2023年阿勒泰地区年（a）和冬季（b）区域性寒潮过程综合强度的年代际变化

Fig.7 Interdecadal variation of the comprehensive intensity of annual (a) and winter (b) regional cold wave processes in Altay region from 1960 to 2023

图8 1960—2023年阿勒泰地区年（a）和冬季（b）区域性特强寒潮过程综合强度的年代际变化

Fig.8 Interdecadal variation of the comprehensive intensity of annual (a) and winter (b) regional extremely strong cold wave processes in Altay region from 1960 to 2023

图9 1960—2023年阿勒泰地区冬季降水量距平与寒潮过程频数距平（a）及寒潮过程频数距平与综合强度距平（b）的散点图

Fig.9 The scatter plots between winter precipitation anomaly and cold wave process frequency anomaly (a), and between cold wave process frequency anomaly and comprehensive intensity anomaly (b) in Altay region from 1960 to 2023

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