中国干旱区沙戈荒区域未来风光资源开发的气候风险研究

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-03-0387

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国沙戈荒地区是当前和未来大规模风光发电基地建设的核心区域，开展区域极端事件气候风险研究，对能源基地建设至关重要。本文基于经过偏差校正后的第六次耦合模式比较计划数据，引入沙尘、极端低温、极端高温与发电效率损失的定量关系，并将其纳入气候风险评估框架，使用WRF-Chem模式预估2030—2060年不同排放情景下中国沙戈荒及其子区域风光资源开发的气候风险。结果表明，未来沙戈荒地区单次沙尘发生时对风光发电效率的影响呈增强趋势。极端高温的致灾危险性总体上增强，而极端低温的致灾危险性总体上减弱。在极端事件影响下，未来沙戈荒地区风光资源开发的气候风险总体呈增强趋势。其中，沙尘对风资源开发的气候风险在新疆和青海地区显著增加，对太阳能资源开发的气候风险在青海地区显著增加。极端高温对风资源开发的气候风险在新疆、甘肃蒙西及蒙东地区显著增加，对太阳能资源开发的气候风险在各地区均显著增加。不同排放情景下，极端低温带来的风电开发风险存在显著区域差异。

关键词: 气候风险, 极端事件, 中国沙戈荒地区, 未来预估

Abstract:

The Gobi desert region of China is a core area for current and future large-scale wind and photovoltaic power base construction. Conducting climate risk research on extreme events in this region is therefore crucial for the development of energy bases. Based on bias-corrected datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study adopted existing quantitative relationships among dust disasters, extreme low temperatures, extreme high temperatures, and power generation efficiency losses and incorporated them into a climate risk assessment framework. The WRF-Chem model was used to project the climate risks of wind and solar power development in the Gobi desert region of China and its sub-regions under different emission scenarios from 2030 to 2060. The results indicate that the impact of a single dust event on wind and solar power generation efficiency in the Gobi desert region of China shows an increasing trend in the future. The hazard of extreme high temperatures generally increases, while that of extreme low temperatures generally decreases. Under the influence of extreme events, the overall climate risk for wind and solar resource development in the Gobi desert region of China tends to intensify. Specifically, dust-induced climate risks for wind power development increase significantly in Xinjiang and Qinghai, whereas those for solar power development increase significantly in Qinghai. Extreme high temperatures lead to significant increases in wind power climate risks in Xinjiang, Gansu-western Inner Mongolia, and eastern Inner Mongolia, and cause significant increases in solar power climate risks across all sub-regions. Under different emission scenarios, the wind power development risks caused by extreme low temperatures exhibit notable regional differences.

Key words: Climate risk, extreme climate events, the Gobi desert region of China, future projection

中图分类号:

P467

郭楠, 陈星, 张飞民, 王澄海. 中国干旱区沙戈荒区域未来风光资源开发的气候风险研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2026, 44(3): 387-397.

GUO Nan, CHEN Xing, ZHANG Feimin, WANG Chenghai. Climate risks of future wind and solar resource development in the Gobi desert region of China within the arid zone[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2026, 44(3): 387-397.

图/表 9

图1 沙戈荒地区的空间范围及其子区域

Fig.1 Spatial extent and subregions of the Gobi desert region of China

表1 风光资源开发的气候风险指标

Tab.1 Climate risk indicators for wind and solar resource development

资源类型	指标类型	指标名称	指标内容	指标单位
风资源	危险性	${\mathit{h}}_{1}$	致灾因子频率	次
		${\mathit{h}}_{2}$	致灾因子强度
		${\mathit{h}}_{3}$	致灾因子引起的风电发电效率损失	%
	暴露度	${\mathit{e}}_{1}$	风电基地面积	km²
	暴露度	${\mathit{e}}_{2}$	风电基地总装机容量	kW
	敏感性	${\mathit{s}}_{1}$	垂直风切变（Zhang et al.，2022）	m·s^-1
		${\mathit{s}}_{2}$	湍流强度（夏馨等，2022）
		${\mathit{s}}_{3}$	风速	m·s^-1
光资源	危险性	${\mathit{h}}_{1}$	致灾因子频率	次
		${\mathit{h}}_{2}$	致灾因子强度
		${\mathit{h}}_{3}$	致灾因子引起的光伏发电效率损失	%
	暴露度	${\mathit{e}}_{1}$	光伏基地面积	km²
	暴露度	${\mathit{e}}_{2}$	光伏基地总装机容量	kW
	敏感性	${\mathit{s}}_{4}$	向下短波辐射	W·m^-2

图2 近地面沙尘质量浓度与风电、光伏发电效率损失的线性拟合关系

Fig.2 Linear fitting relationship between near-surface dust mass concentration and efficiency loss of wind and photovoltaic power generation

图3 2030—2060年不同排放情景下沙戈荒地区不同极端事件的频率、强度相对历史时期变化百分率空间分布（斜线区域表示变化百分率通过0.1的显著性检验，下同）

Fig.3 Spatial distribution of percentage changes of frequency and intensity of different extreme events in the Gobi desert region of China during 2030-2060 relative to the historical period under different emission scenarios （Black hatched areas indicate that percentage changes pass the significance test at the 0.1 level， the same as below）

图4 2030—2060年不同排放情景下沙戈荒地区不同极端事件的频率和强度相对历史时期变化百分率的年际变化（*表示线性趋势通过0.1的显著性检验，下同）

Fig.4 Interannual variations of percentage changes of frequency and intensity of different extreme events in the Gobi desert region of China during 2030-2060 relative to the historical period under different emission scenarios （* denotes that the linear trend passes the significance test at the 0.1 level， the same as below）

图5 沙戈荒地区风电和光伏基地暴露度的空间分布

Fig.5 Spatial distribution of exposure degree of wind and photovoltaic power bases in the Gobi desert region of China

图6 未来SSP2-4.5排放情景下不同极端事件影响下风光开发的气候风险相对于历史时期变化百分率的空间分布（单位：%）

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of percentage changes of climate risks for wind-solar power development under the influence of different extreme events in the future SSP2-4.5 emission scenario relative to the historical period （Unit： %）

图7 2030—2060年不同排放情景、不同极端事件影响下风光资源开发的气候风险相对历史时期变化百分率的年际变化

Fig.7 Interannual variations of percentage changes of climate risks of wind and solar resource development in the Gobi desert region of China during 2030-2060 relative to the historical period under different emission scenarios and extreme events

图8 2030—2060年不同排放情景、不同极端事件影响下沙戈荒及不同子区域风光资源开发的气候风险相对于历史时期变化百分率的箱线图

Fig.8 Box plots of percentage changes of climate risks of wind and solar resource development in the Gobi desert region of China and its sub-regions during 2030-2060 relative to the historical period under different emission scenarios and extreme events

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