冷涡背景下天津夏季三次不同强度极端短时强降水物理量特征对比分析

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2025-03-0424

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在相似环流背景下开展不同降雨强度降水过程的局地关键物理量对比分析，是提升该地区强降水事件精细化预报能力的有效路径。本文基于多源观测数据，对2022年6月28日（简称“6·28”过程）、7月1日（简称“7·1”过程）和7月26日（简称“7·26”过程）天津3次冷涡背景下的雨强突增过程开展物理量阈值分析。结果表明：“6·28”过程中，极强水汽辐合（-8.0×10?? g·hPa?1·cm?2·s?1）、低抬升凝结高度（962 hPa）与深厚暖云层（4.0 km）形成协同效应，叠加冷池出流与低空辐合触发的中尺度涡旋，以及低质心风暴和列车效应，共同导致本次过程雨强最大增幅达96.6 mm·h^-1；“7·26”过程以较高的环境温度（32.1 ℃）和对流有效位能（2 464 J·kg?1）促使高质心风暴垂直发展，但冰相粒子占比增加使得雨强增幅（88.8 mm·h^-1）受限；“7·1”过程受弱垂直风切变（1.3 m·s?1）与冷池强度（21.9 ℃）不足影响，冷池出流无法与低层辐合协同触发新对流，导致雨强增幅最低（55.3 mm·h^-1）。3次过程雨强跃增前均存在共性物理量阈值：对流有效位能大于1 200 J·kg?1、暖云层厚度大于3.1 km、整层大气可降水量大于47.5 mm，且地面辐合线出现时间超前强降水发生时间1.5~2.0 h。此外，回波顶高、组合反射率、垂直累积液态水含量与雨强增量的相关系数均超过0.90，前1 h露点温度变化与雨强增量的相关系数为-0.90。

关键词: 极端短时强降水, 冷涡, 雨强突增, 中尺度涡旋

Abstract:

The comparative analysis of local physical processes of rainfall with different intensities under similar circulation background is an effective way to improve the accurate forecasting ability of heavy precipitation events in the region. Based on multi-source data, this paper analyzed the thresholds of physical quantities of sudden increase of rainfall intensity during three heavy rainfall processes under the background of cold vortex in Tianjin on June 28 (hereinafter abbreviated as the “6·28” process), July 1 (hereinafter abbreviated as the “7·1” process) and July 26 (hereinafter abbreviated as the “7·26” process) in 2022. The results show that during the "6·28" process, the synergistic effects of extremely strong water vapor convergence (-8.0×10^-7 g·hPa^-1·cm^-2·s^-1), low lifting condensation level (962 hPa), and deep warm cloud layer (4.0 km), combined with the mesoscale vortices triggered by cold pool outflow and low-level convergence, as well as low-quality storms and the training effects, collectively resulted in a maximum rainfall intensity increase of 96.6 mm·h^-1.During the “7·26” process, the higher ambient temperatures (32.1 ℃) and convective effective potential energy (CAPE) (2 464 J·kg^-1) promoted the vertical development of high quality storms. However, the increasing proportion of ice phase particles limited the increase in rainfall intensity (88.8 mm·h^-1). During the “7·1” process, the weak vertical wind shear (1.3 m·s^-1) and insufficient cold pool strength (21.9 ℃) were impossible to trigger new convection, with the lowest increase in rainfall intensity (55.3 mm·h^-1). There are common thresholds of physical quantities before the sudden increase in rainfall intensity in the three processes: the CAPE greater than 1 200 J·kg^-1, the warm cloud layer thickness greater than 3.1 km, total atmospheric precipitable water greater than 47.5 mm, and the occurrence time of the surface convergence line being 1.5-2.0 h ahead of the occurrence time of heavy precipitation. The correlation coefficient between ET, CR, VIL and rainfall intensity increment exceeded 0.90, while the correlation coefficient between dew point change in the first hour and rainfall intensity increment was -0.90 during the extreme heavy rainfalls.

Key words: extreme short-term heavy rainfall, cold vortex, sudden increase in rainfall intensity, mesoscale vortex

中图分类号:

P445

靳振华, 卜清军, 黄安宁. 冷涡背景下天津夏季三次不同强度极端短时强降水物理量特征对比分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2025, 43(3): 424-434.

JIN Zhenhua, BU Qingjun, HUANG Anning. Comparative analysis of physical quantity characteristic of three extreme short-term heavy rainfalls with different intensities under cold vortex background during summer in Tianjin[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2025, 43(3): 424-434.

图/表 11

表1 主要物理量列表

Tab.1 Main physical quantity list

因子分类	物理量	单位
对流潜势因子	对流有效位能（Convective Available Potential Energy，CAPE）	J·kg^-1
	抬升凝结高度（Lifted Condensation Level，LCL）	km
	湿层厚度（Humidity Layer Thickness，H_wet）	km
	暖云层厚度（Warm Cloud Layer Thickness，H_warm）	km
	0~6 km垂直风切变（0~6 km Vertical Wind Shear，SHR₆）	m·s^-1
	K指数	℃
	强天气威胁指数（Severe Weather Threat Index，SWEAT）
动力因子	垂直速度（Vertical Velocity，w）	Pa·s^-1
水汽因子	整层大气可降水量（Precipitable Water Vapor，P_WV）	mm
热力因子	假相当位温（Pseudo Equivalent Potential Temperature，θ_se）	K
回波参数	组合反射率（Composite Reflectivity，CR）	dBZ
	回波顶高（Echo Top，ET）	km
	垂直累积液态水含量（Vertical Integrated Liquid Water Content，VIL）	kg·m^-2

图1 2022年天津3次极端短时强降水过程雨强极值落区（圆圈数字表示各站点极端短时强降水发生的先后顺序）

Fig.1 The extreme rainfall intensity areas of three short-term heavy rainfall processes in Tianjin in 2022（The circle digital indicates the sequence of occurrence of the extreme short-term heavy rainfalls at each station）

图2 2022年天津3次极端短时强降水过程不同站点不同时刻雨强较前1 h增量

Fig.2 The increment of rainfall intensity compared to the previous hour at different stations and times during three short-term heavy rainfall processes in Tianjin in 2022

图3 2022年天津3次极端短时强降水过程发生前200、500、700、850 hPa环流形势（黑色圆圈表示冷涡环流，字母A、B、C、D表示冷涡中心；风矢，单位：m·s-1；紫色实线表示槽线，红色线包围区域表示天津地区）

Fig.3 The circulation situation at 200 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa, and 850 hPa before the occurrence of three extreme short-term heavy rainfall processes in Tianjin in 2022 (The black circle represents the cold vortex circulation, the letters A, B, C and D represent the centers of the cold vortex; wind vectors, Unit: m·s-1; the purple solid line represents trough lines, the area surrounded by the red line indicates the Tianjin area)

图4 2022年天津3次极端短时强降水前北京站T-ln P图

Fig.4 T-ln P diagram at Beijing station before three extreme short-term heavy rainfall processes in Tianjin in 2022

图5 2022年天津3次极端短时强降水过程不同站点不同时刻雨强较前1 h增量及垂直速度（w）、1 000 hPa和850 hPa比湿差值（?q1000-850）前4 h最大值

Fig.5 The increment rainfall intensity compared to the previous hour at different stations and times, as well as the maximum values of vertical velocity (w) and the specific humidity difference between 1 000 hPa and 850 hPa （?q1000-850） in the first 4 hours during three extreme short-term heavy rainfall processes in Tianjin in 2022

图6 2022年天津3次极端短时强降水期间不同站点水汽通量散度（填色，单位：10-7 g·hPa-1·cm-2·s-1）、假相当位温（等值线，单位：K）的时间-高度剖面

Fig.6 The time-height sections of water vapor flux divergence （the color shaded， Unit： 10-7 g·hPa-1·cm-2·s-1） and pseudo equivalent potential temperature θse （isolines， Unit： K） at different stations during three extreme short-term heavy rainfall processes in Tianjin in 2022

图7 2022年天津3次极端短时强降水过程不同站点不同时刻雨强较前1 h增量、地面前1 h露点温度及温度

Fig.7 The increment of rainfall intensity compared to the previous hour, dew-point temperature and temperature in the previous hour of the ground at different stations and times during the three extreme short-term heavy rainfall processes in Tianjin in 2022

图8 2022年天津3次极端短时强降水过程塘沽站雷达组合反射率因子沿对流风暴回波最强区域所在直线的垂直剖面（单位：dBZ）

Fig.8 The vertical profile of the combinations reflectivity factor along the straight line of the strongest area of convective storm echo at Tanggu Station during three extreme short-term heavy rainfall processes in Tianjin in 2022 （Unit： dBZ）

图9 2022年天津3次极端短时强降水过程不同站点不同时刻雨强较前1 h增量及CR、ET和VIL前1 h最大值

Fig.9 The increment of rainfall intensity compared to the previous hour at different stations and times, as well as the maximum values of CR, ET and VIL in the previous hour during three extreme short-term heavy rainfall processes in Tianjin in 2022

图10 2022年天津3次极端短时强降水过程不同时刻地面风场（风矢，单位：m·s-1）和1.5°仰角基本反射率（填色，单位：dBZ）（红色点线为地面辐合线，字母D表示涡旋中心）

Fig.10 The ground wind fields (wind vectors, Unit: m·s?1) and basic reflectivity at 1.5° elevation angle (the color shaded, Unit: dBZ) at different times during three extreme short-term heavy rainfall processes in Tianjin in 2022 (The red dotted line represents the ground convergence line, the letter D represents the center of the vortex)

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