干旱气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 327-332.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-02-0327

• 技术报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

浙江省中尺度数值预报系统的地表太阳辐射预报订正方法

顾婷婷(), 潘娅英, 张加易   

  1. 浙江省气象服务中心,浙江 杭州 310017
  • 收稿日期:2021-01-28 修回日期:2021-07-19 出版日期:2022-04-30 发布日期:2022-05-10
  • 作者简介:顾婷婷(1985— ),女,江苏兴化人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事专业气象服务产品研究. E-mail: gutt1985@yeah.net
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省气象局重点项目(2020ZD15)

Correction method of surface solar radiation forecast based on ZJWARMS

GU Tingting(), PAN Yaying, ZHANG Jiayi   

  1. Zhejiang Meteorological Service Center, Hangzhou 310017, China
  • Received:2021-01-28 Revised:2021-07-19 Online:2022-04-30 Published:2022-05-10

摘要:

利用2019年杭州站辐射观测数据及浙江省中尺度数值预报业务系统(Zhejiang WRF ADAS real_time modeling system,ZJWARMS)逐时模拟结果,评估ZJWARMS对地表太阳辐射的模拟效果。在此基础上,选取ZJWARMS输出的短波辐射通量、云量、地表温度、比湿等10个气象因子,建立不同天气分型的地表太阳辐射预报(model output statistics,MOS)订正模型。结果表明:ZJWARMS能较好地模拟太阳辐射的日变化特征,其与观测值的相关系数达0.82,但总体上模拟值较观测值偏大,晴天时误差相对较小,阴雨天时误差明显增大。MOS模型订正后,预报效果明显改进,平均绝对百分比误差由订正前的273.4%下降至46.3%,均方根误差由246.7 W·m-2下降至105.0 W·m-2。MOS模型订正效果在不同月份存在一定差异,8月订正效果最好,订正后平均绝对百分比误差由126.6%下降到26.3%,4月订正效果相对较差,订正后平均绝对百分比误差为56.6%。

关键词: ZJWARMS, 地表太阳辐射, 效果评估, 订正

Abstract:

Using the radiation observational data at Hangzhou station and the hourly simulation output data by Zhejiang WRF ADAS real_time modeling system (ZJWARMS), the forecast effect of radiation was evaluated in 2019. On this basis, the MOS correction models under different weather conditions were built based on ten meteorological factors from ZJWARMS output, including shortwave radiation flux, cloud cover, surface temperature, humidity, etc. The results showed that ZJWARMS had a good ability in simulating the diurnal variations of surface solar radiation, the correlation coefficient between simulation value and observation value of radiation was 0.82. However, the system generally overestimated surface solar radiation. The lowest error appeared on sunny days, while there was a significant increase of error on overcast days or rainy days. The correction model could effectively improve the prediction effect of surface solar radiation. After the correction of MOS model, the mean absolute percentage error decreased from 273.4% to 46.3%, and the root mean square error dropped from 246.7 W·m-2 to 105.0 W·m-2. The correction effect exited difference in different months, and that in August was the best, and the mean absolute percentage error decreased from 126.6% to 26.3%, while the correction error was larger in April, the mean absolute percentage error was 56.6%.

Key words: ZJWARMS, surface solar radiation, effect evaluation, correction

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