干旱气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 317-326.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-02-0317

• 技术报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于西南区域中尺度模式系统预报的陡峭地形过渡带降水订正方法

黄楚惠1(), 牛金龙1,2, 李国平3, 陈朝平1, 肖递祥1, 张平1   

  1. 1.四川省气象台,高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川 成都 610072
    2.四川省成都市气象局,四川 成都 610071
    3.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川 成都 610225
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-26 修回日期:2021-12-21 出版日期:2022-04-30 发布日期:2022-05-10
  • 作者简介:黄楚惠(1981— ),女,四川眉山人,汉族,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事天气诊断与预报应用研究. E-mail: huangchu267@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    四川省科技计划重点研发专项(2022YFS0542);2021年中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z33);2021年中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J27);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJYJXMS202113);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJZD202101);四川省气象局智能网格预报创新团队;国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507200);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000905);国家自然科学基金(42175002);国家自然科学基金(42075013);国家自然科学基金(41765003)

Correction method of precipitation in steep terrain transition zone forecasted based on southwest center WRF ADAS real-time modeling system

HUANG Chuhui1(), NIU Jinlong1,2, LI Guoping3, CHEN Chaoping1, XIAO Dixiang1, ZHANG Ping1   

  1. 1. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
    2. Chengdu Meteorological Office of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610071, China
    3. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
  • Received:2021-08-26 Revised:2021-12-21 Online:2022-04-30 Published:2022-05-10

摘要:

基于地形和西南区域中尺度模式系统(southwest center WRF ADAS real-time modeling system,SWCWARMS)20:00(北京时,下同)和08:00起报的逐3 h风场、相对湿度场,计算地形降水估算量并结合SWCWARMS预报降水场构建降水订正方程,进而对2018—2020年汛期6—8月日降水、四川盆地降水过程及四川盆地西部降水过程3类降水进行订正,并仅对川西高原东坡到四川盆地西部的陡峭地形过渡带进行检验评估。结果表明:(1)各量级降水量订正值TS相对于SWCWARMS预报降水量的TS均有不同程度提高,20:00起报的订正效果优于08:00。对于大雨及以上量级均以四川盆地西部降水过程订正效果最佳, 20:00起报的12~36 h大雨、暴雨和大暴雨的降水量订正值 TS相对提高率分别为19%、25%和37%,且命中率高,空、漏报率明显减小,订正效果较好。(2)降水订正方程对四川盆地西部降水过程类型中的区域性暴雨个例和一般性降水个例均有较好的订正效果,即使是SWCWARMS模式预报的大雨、暴雨和大暴雨预报降水落区与实况差异甚远的个例也有一定订正效果。

关键词: 陡峭地形过渡带, SWCWARMS, 地形降水, 订正方程

Abstract:

Based on topography and forecasted 3-hour wind fields, relative humidity fields initialed from 20:00 BST and 08:00 BST by using the SWCWARMS (southwest center WRF ADAS real-time modeling system), the precipitation correction equation was constructed by calculating the terrain precipitation estimates combined with precipitation fields forecasted by SWCWARMS. The daily precipitation, precipitation processes in Sichuan Basin and in western Sichuan Basin during flood season from June to August during 2018-2020 are corrected, and the precipitation in the steep terrain transition zone from the eastern slope of western Sichuan Plateau to the western Sichuan Basin was tested and evalcated only. The results are as follows: (1) The TS of the precipitation correction value with each magnitude was improved compared with TS of forecasted precipitation by the SWCWARMS. The correction effect of precipitation forecasted initialed from 20:00 BST was better than that initialed from 08:00, and the correction effect of the precipitation processes in western Sichuan Province was the best for heavy rain and above. Compared with the SWCWARMS, the relative improvement rates of TS of corrected value of precipitation with heavy rain, torrential rain and heavy downpour were 19%, 25% and 37%, respectively, the hit ratio was higher, the false alarm rate and miss rate were decreased significantly. (2) The correction equations of precipitation had a good correction effect on both torrential rain and general precipitation cases of precipitation processes in western Sichuan Province occurring in the steep terrain transition zone, even for cases of precipitation area predicted by the SWCWARMS was far from the actual situation.

Key words: the steep terrain transition zone, SWCWARMS, topographic precipitation, precipitation correct equationsss

中图分类号: