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甘南高原大到暴雨天气过程分型及特征

王成福1,谢蕊2,吉哲君1,敖泽建1,罗王军1,陈洋1,魏娟娟1,金满慧1   

  1. 1.甘肃省甘南州气象局,甘肃合作747000; 2.甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃天水741000
  • 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-28
  • 作者简介:王成福(1988— ),女,工程师,主要从事中短期天气预报业务工作. E-mail:ly850216un@163.com。
  • 基金资助:

    甘肃省气象局青年优秀科技人才项目资助

The Circulation Classification and Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall in Gannan Plateau

WANG Chengfu1, XIE Rui2, JI Zhejun1, AO Zejian1,LUO Wangjun1, CHEN Yang1, WEI Juanjuan1, JIN Manhui1   

  1. 1. Gannan Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province, Hezuo 747000, Gansu, China;
    2. Tianshui Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province, Tianshui 741000, Gansu, China
  • Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28

摘要:

基于2013—2016年甘南州181个区域站及自动站小时雨量观测资料,提取出53次大到暴雨天气过程,在此基础上进一步分析卫星云图、雷达观测资料以及历史天气资料。结果表明:甘南地区的大到暴雨天气过程主要出现在雨季,7、8月出现频次较高,其天气形势主要分为:西风槽型、副热带高压边缘型、低涡切变型、两高之间切变型、高压内部切变型5种类型,且以西风槽型为主。各类型大到暴雨天气过程的预报侧重点有所不同,西风槽型大到暴雨预报主要侧重于天气尺度环境场分析,其降水时间长,强度较弱(15 mm·h-1以下),副热带高压边缘型、低涡切变型、两高之间切变型大到暴雨天气的预报主要归结为对高原上短时强降水的预报,短时强降水的实时观测可为这三种类型大到暴雨天气过程的预报提供重要依据。

关键词: 关键词:甘南高原, 大到暴雨, 概念模型, 卫星云图, 雷达

Abstract:

Total 53 heavy rainfall events were identified by historical hourly precipitation from 181 regional stations and automatic meteorological stations over Ganan Plateau during 2013-2016. Corresponding synoptic characteristics were analyzed and extracted from the satellite imagery, radar observation and historical weather data. The results show that heavy rainfall always occurred during the rainy season, especially in July and August. The synoptic situations of heavy rainfall were mainly divided into five patterns including west wind trough, subtropical high-pressure borderline, strong shear in low vortex, wind shear between two high systems and wind shear in high systems, but the westerly trough was dominant. The emphasis of the prediction procedure of heavy rainfall was different among these five synoptic conditions. Under the situation of westerly trough, contribution of large-scale environment played an important role. The precipitation could last long time with weak intensity (less than 15 mm ·h-1). However, forecast about subtropical high-pressure borderline, strong shear in low vortex, wind shear between two high systems should be focused on the prediction of short-term heavy precipitation over the plateau. The real-time observation of short-term heavy rainfall could provide an important basis for the prediction of these three types of extreme rain events.

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