干旱气象 ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2): 177-184.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2021)-02-0177

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

多时间尺度气象干旱指数在内蒙古典型草原的适应性研究

武荣盛1,侯琼1,杨玉辉2,冯旭宇1,李彬1,郑凤杰3   

  1. 1.内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051;
    2.内蒙古自治区兴安盟气象局,内蒙古 乌兰浩特 137400;
    3.内蒙古自治区气象灾害监测预警与人工影响天气中心,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051
  • 出版日期:2021-04-30 发布日期:2021-05-07
  • 作者简介:武荣盛(1984— ),男,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为生态与农业气象.
  • 基金资助:
    内蒙古科技计划项目(2020GG0117)、内蒙古科技计划项目(2019GG016)、内蒙古科技重大专项(2020ZD0005-0103)、国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506606)、内蒙古科技创新引导项目(KCBJ2018065)、公益性行业(气象)科研重大专项(GYHY201506001-19)以及内蒙古气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx202007)共同资助

Applicability Evaluation of Multi-time-scales Meteorological Drought Indexes in Typical Steppe of Inner Mongolia

WU Rongsheng1, HOU Qiong1, YANG Yuhui2, FENG Xuyu1, LI Bin1, ZHENG Fengjie3   

  1. 1. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center, Huhhot 010051, China;
    2. Xingan League Meteorological Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Ulanhot 137400, Inner Mongolia, China;
    3. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Warning & Weather Modification Center, Huhhot 010051, China
  • Online:2021-04-30 Published:2021-05-07

摘要: 利用1981—2015年内蒙古典型草原牧草观测站土壤水分和气象观测资料,对比分析不同时间尺度气象干旱指数与各季节0~20、0~50、0~100 cm深度土壤相对湿度的相关性,探究多时间尺度气象干旱指数在典型草原干旱监测中的适用性,并基于多元回归分析构建各站点不同季节土壤相对湿度的预测模型。结果表明:春、夏、秋三季,内蒙古典型草原0~20 cm土壤相对湿度均主要受前2个月水分盈亏的影响,而0~50 cm和0~100 cm的土壤相对湿度不同季节受影响的时间尺度不同。其中,春季 0~50 cm和0~100 cm的土壤墒情受年尺度降水影响最显著;夏季,0~50 cm土壤墒情与前2个月内大气水分平衡状况相关性最高,而0~100 cm土壤干旱则主要受前2~6个月尺度降水亏缺影响最明显;秋季,0~50 cm土壤相对湿度受前3~6个月尺度降水异常影响最显著,而0~100 cm土壤相对湿度则与前3个月尺度的降水和蒸散间的平衡状况关系最密切,且前6个月以上尺度的气象干旱也存在明显影响。CI、MCI和PDSI因考虑大气水分长期亏缺和近期亏缺的综合效应,与各季节不同深度土壤相对湿度的相关性总体高于其他气象干旱指数。基于前期气象干旱指数构建的土壤相对湿度预报模型能够较好地拟合典型草原土壤水分的变化,为当地牧草干旱监测和预警提供一定参考。

关键词: 多时间尺度, 气象干旱指数, 典型草原, 土壤相对湿度

Abstract: Based on soil moisture and meteorological elements data at four pasture observation stations in typical steppe of Inner Mongolia from 1981 to 2015, the correlations between multi-time-scales meteorological drought indexes and soil relative moisture at different depths in spring, summer and autumn were comparatively analyzed, and the applicability of these drought indexes to drought monitoring was explored in typical steppe of Inner Mongolia. And on this basis, the prediction models of soil relative moisture at different depths were built by using multiple linear regression method in different seasons. The results show that the soil relative moisture at 0-20 cm depth in three seasons was affected by atmospheric water balance in the past two months, while the timescales influencing soil relative moisture at 0-50 cm and 0-100 cm depths were different in typical steppe of Inner Mongolia. In spring, the soil relative moistures at 0-50 cm and 0-100 cm depths were significantly regulated by previous annual precipitation. In summer, the soil relative moisture at 0-50 cm depth was closely related to atmospheric moisture balance in the past two months, while the soil drought at 0-100 cm depth was mainly controlled by precipitation deficit in the past 2-6 months. In autumn, the soil relative moisture at 0-50 cm depth was significantly influenced by previous precipitation for 3-6 months, while that at 0-100 cm depth was closely correlated with the balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration in the past three months, and the influence of meteorological droughts in the past six months and above was obvious. CI, MCI and PDSI had higher correlation with soil relative moisture at different depths than other meteorological drought indices in different seasons due to taking into account the comprehensive effects of long-term and short-term atmospheric water deficit. The established prediction models of soil relative moisture based on previous meteorological drought indexes could better capture the change of soil moisture in typical steppe, and they could support the drought monitoring and predication of pasture to some extent.

Key words: multi-time-scales, meteorological drought index, typical steppe, soil relative moisture

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