干旱气象

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湖南特大干旱时空变化特征分析

黎祖贤1周盛1樊志超1徐靖宇2兰明才2蒋元华3   

  1. 1.湖南省人工影响天气领导小组办公室,湖南长沙410118;
    2.湖南省气象台,湖南长沙410118;3.湖南省气候中心,湖南长沙410118
  • 出版日期:2018-09-04 发布日期:2018-09-04

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Drought in Hunan Province

LI Zuxian 1, ZHOU Sheng1, FAN Zhichao1, XU Jingyu2, LAN Mingcai2, JIANG Yuanhua3   

  1. 1. Weather Modification Office of Hunan Province, Changsha 410118, China;
    2. Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 410118, China; 3. Hunan Climate Center, Changsha 410118, China
  • Online:2018-09-04 Published:2018-09-04

摘要:

利用湖南建站以来至2014年97个国家气象观测站的逐日气温、降水、相对湿度等观测资料计算逐日气象干旱综合指数,运用线性倾向估计方法,统计分析湖南特大干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明:全省特旱影响范围总体扩大,年际变化呈显著上升趋势。特旱年际变化倾向率总体呈上升趋势,平均值为0.016次·a-1,其中衡邵地区上升最快,湘东北下降最快。整体下半年比上半年更易发生特旱,10月特旱频次最多。桑植、宁乡、怀化、郴州、邵东5个代表站最长干旱持续日数越多,特旱发生概率越大,特旱均发生在最长干旱持续日数20 d以上的年份,且多年连续特旱明显多于单独某一年特旱。各代表站最长干旱持续日数出现频次夏季最高,春季最少,跨季节的连旱一般跨越两个季节,夏秋连旱出现频次最高,个别年份跨越3个季节。

关键词: 特大干旱, 综合气象干旱指数, 特旱影响范围, 变化倾向率

Abstract:

Based on the observational data of daily temperature, precipitation and relative humidity from 97 national meteorological stations from 1965 to 2014, the daily composite meteorological drought indexes (CI) were calculated, then by using linear trend estimation, the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme drought were analysed. The results show that the influence scope of extreme drought in the whole province expanded and the inter-annual changes presented a significant upward trend. The inter-annual change tendency of extreme droughts has been on the rise, with an average value of 0.016 times per year, the fastest rising region was in Hengshao area, and the fastest falling area was in the northeastern part of Hunan. In the whole province the extreme drought in the second half year was more than that in the first half year, and the frequency of extreme droughts in October was the highest. The analysis of the inter-decadal variation of the longest drought days at five representative stations (Sangzhi, Ningxiang, Huaihua, Zhangzhou and Shaodong) showed that the longer the duration of drought, the greater the probability of extreme drought was.The extreme drought occurred in the year when the longest drought lasted for more than 20 days, and the continuous drought  for many years was obviously more than that in a single year. The longest drought days at each representative station, occurred frequently in summer and less in spring. Cross-season drought generally spanned two seasons with the highest frequency in summer and autumn, for individual years, it spanned three seasons.

Key words: extreme drought, CI, range affected by extreme drought, the rate of extreme drought change

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