干旱气象 ›› 2020, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 878-885.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2020)-05-0878

• 业务技术应用 • 上一篇    

陕西道路结冰时空变化特征及其风险预警模型

张宏芳,卢珊,沈姣姣,张曦,党超琪   

  1. 陕西省气象服务中心,陕西 西安 710014
  • 出版日期:2020-10-30 发布日期:2020-10-30
  • 作者简介:张宏芳(1981— ),女,高级工程师,主要从事气象服务与应用气象研究工作.
  • 基金资助:
    陕西省自然科学基金项目(2019JM-088)、中国气象局交通气象服务能力建设项目及中国气象局公共气象服务中心创新基金项目(M2020034)共同资助

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Road Icing in Shaanxi and Its Risk Warning Model

ZHANG Hongfang, LU Shan, SHEN Jiaojiao, ZHANG Xi, DANG Chaoqi   

  1. Shaanxi Meteorological Service Centre, Xi’an 710014, China
  • Online:2020-10-30 Published:2020-10-30

摘要: 高速公路交通灾害风险研究是专业气象服务发展的新方向,也是未来交通气象预报服务的一项重要内容。利用1980—2017年陕西94个气象台站地面观测资料,分析陕西不同天气状况下道路结冰的时空变化特征,探讨并构建陕西道路结冰风险预警模型。结果表明:陕西高速公路道路结冰在关中西北部至陕北西部宜君、长武、甘泉一带以及陕北北部神木一带有2个中心,其中雨夹雪或降雪结冰占比最大。道路结冰主要发生在11月到次年3月,初冰日陕北、关中一般出现在10月中下旬,陕南出现较晚在11月,而终冰日主要出现在3月和4月,其中1月结冰日数最多,1990年代之后道路结冰日数有减少趋势。尝试建立的陕西道路结冰风险预警模型在业务系统中能够实现自动制作,且预报效果较好。

关键词: 道路结冰, 时空分布, 风险预警, 陕西

Abstract: Research on highway traffic disaster risk is a new direction for the development of professional meteorological services, and it is an important content of traffic weather forecasting services in future. Based on the ground observation data at 94 weather stations in Shaanxi from 1980 to 2017, the temporal-spatial change characteristics of road icing under different weather conditions were analyzed by using EOF method, etc., firstly. And the risk warning model of road icing in Shaanxi was discussed and established. The results show that there were two centers of road icing in the northwest of Guanzhong to the west of northern Shaanxi and Shenmu of northern Shaanxi, and the ratio of sleet or snowfall road icing was the maximum. The road icing mainly occurred from November to next March in Shaanxi, and the beginning date of road icing generally occurred in mid-to-late October in northern Shaanxi and Guanzhong, while that occurred later in November in southern Shaanxi, but the ending date of road icing mainly occurred in March and April in three regions, and the road icing days in January was the most. After the 1990s, the days of road icing decreased. The risk warning model of road icing was established and applied to business system in Shaanxi, and it could complete automatic production, the prediction effect was better.

Key words: road icing, temporal-spatial distribution, risk warning, Shaanxi Province

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