干旱气象 ›› 2019, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 550-556.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

近70 a来中亚极端高温事件时空分布

金红梅1, 4,颜鹏程2,柏庆顺3,周甘霖2,段海霞2   

  1. (1.中亚大气科学研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002;2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,
    甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,
    甘肃兰州730020;3.扬州大学物理科学与技术学院,江苏扬州225002;
    4.甘肃省气象信息与技术装备保障中心,甘肃兰州730020)
  • 出版日期:2019-08-30 发布日期:2019-09-04
  • 作者简介:金红梅(1987— ),女,甘肃陇西人,硕士,工程师,主要从事非线性气候动力学及全球气候变化方面的研究. E-mail:jinhm.good@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    中亚大气科学研究基金(CAAS201802)、甘肃省气象局西北区域数值预报创新团队(GSQXCXTD-2017-02)、干旱气象科学研究基金(IAM201715,IAM201604)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)(GYHY201506001)共同资助

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Extreme High Temperature Events in Central Asia over the Last 70 Years

JIN Hongmei 1,4, YAN Pengcheng2, BAI Qinshun3, ZHOU Ganlin2, DUAN Haixia2   

  1. (1. Central-Asia Research Center of Atmospheric Science, Urumqi 830002, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Laboratory
     of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration,
     Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
    3. School of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, Jiangsu, China;
    4. Gansu Meteorological Information and Technical Equip Safeguard Center, Lanzhou 730020, China)
  • Online:2019-08-30 Published:2019-09-04

摘要: 基于NCEP/NCAR 1948—2017年逐日平均气温资料,利用百分位阈值法确定中亚地区极端高温事件的阈值,进而分析该地区近70 a极端高温事件强度、频次时空分布特征。结果表明:中亚地区暖季平均气温的空间分布受地形影响显著,从西南向东北逐渐降低。极端高温事件的强度和频次在1967年前后发生年代际转折,其中强度在转折后要显著高于转折前,频次在转折前呈现负趋势、转折后转变为正趋势。极端高温事件发生的区域也存在显著的年代际变化特征。极端高温事件强度趋势增加最显著的地区位于乌兹别克斯坦西部,负趋势最显著的区域位于中国南疆;频次趋势增加最显著区域位于哈萨克斯坦西部的乌拉尔地区,负趋势显著区域则位于帕米尔高原。

关键词: 极端高温事件, 中亚地区, 阈值, 时空分布

Abstract: Based on the daily mean air temperature data of NCEP/NCAR during 1948-2017, the extreme high temperature events in Central Asia were determined by percentile threshold method, then the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of intensity and frequency of extreme high temperature events over the past 70 years were analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of mean temperature in warm season in Central Asia was significantly affected by topography, and it gradually decreased from southwest to northeast. The intensity and frequency of extreme high temperature events occurred interdecadal transition in 1967. The intensity after transition was significantly higher than that before the transition. The frequency showed a negative trend before 1967 and a positive trend after that. The areas of extreme high temperature events also occurred interdecadal transition. According to the trend distribution of intensity, the region with the most significant increase was located in the west of Uzbekistan, and the region with the most significant negative trend was located in the southern Xinjiang of China. While the most significant increase in frequency trend was in Ural region of western Kazakhstan, and the negative trend was in Pamir Plateau.

Key words:
extreme high temperature events,
Central Asia, threshold, spatial and temporal distribution

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