关键词: IAP/LASG GOALS, 温室气体情景排放浓度, 西北地区, 气候趋势预测

Abstract: The climate change trend was simulated in the last 50 years, and predicted in the next 10 years in Northwest China by using the global ocean-atmosphere land surface system model  developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP/LASG GOALS), which had been run under greenhouse gas emission scenarios provided by IPCC. The results show that the warming started at the end of the 1970s in Northwest China, but temperature increasing was small, and obvious warming began in the middle of the1980s. The climate features was simulated better in the past 50 years over Northwest China. In the future 10 years, the annual average temperature would increase by about 1.67 ℃ in Northeast China. The largest temperature rise would occur in the west, followed by the east of Northwest China, and the smallest temperature rise would occur in the north. The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation would be complex. However, the precipitation would increase in the west of Northwest China. The precipitation would relatively reduce in the east of Northwest China, and the drought would aggravate.

Key words:  IAP/LASG GOALS, CO2 concentrations of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, Northwest China, prediction of climate trend