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山东省1961~2010年降水的非均匀性特征

  

  1. 1. 山东省气象台,山东 济南 250031;
    2. 山东省气候中心,山东 济南 250031
  • 出版日期:2015-08-31 发布日期:2015-08-31
  • 作者简介:万明波(1981-),男,江苏灌云人,硕士,工程师,主要从事中短期与短临预报. E-mail:wanmbo@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    山东省气象局重点课题(2012sdqxz05)、山东省气象局面上课题(2015sdqxm01、2015sdqxm05)及山东省气象局青年科研基金项目(2014SDQN01)共同资助

Nonuniformity Characteristics of Precipitation in Shandong Province During 1961-2010

  1. 1. Shandong Meteorological Observatory, Ji’nan 250031, China;
    2. Shandong Climate Center, Ji’nan 250031, China
  • Online:2015-08-31 Published:2015-08-31

摘要:

根据山东省121个气象站1961~2010年逐日降水观测数据,采用气候趋势系数、M-K突变检验、滑动t检验、Morlet小波分析、相关分析、合成分析等方法讨论了山东省降水集中程度的时空分布特征和变化规律。结果表明:山东省降水集中度(PCD)的变化范围在0.55~0.70之间,鲁西北、鲁中山区、半岛内陆地区为高值区;降水集中期(PCP)变化范围在37~46侯之间,地区间差异明显。PCD多年平均值为0.62,PCP在43侯前后。各站PCD的变化趋势均不显著,大部分站PCP的变化趋势不显著。PCD和PCP没有发生突变,PCD和PCP一直分别存在5 a、8 a左右振荡主周期,同时并存多个周期。多水年和少水年PCD和PCP的空间分布差异较明显,年降水量与年内PCD在全省表现出一致的正相关,与PCP相关系数空间分布差异较大,但整体也表现为正相关性。

关键词: 山东省, 降水集中度, 降水集中期, 非均匀性

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data of 121 meteorological stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2010, the characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution and variation of precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and precipitation concentration period (PCP) were analyzed by using climate tendency coefficient, Mann-Kendall test, Moving t-test, Morlet wavelet analysis, correlation analysis, synthetic analysis, and so on. The results showed that the annual PCD ranged between 0.55 and 0.70 in Shandong Province during 1961-2010, and the high values of PCD distributed in the northwest, the central mountains and peninsula of Shandong Province. The annual PCP ranged from 37 to 46 five-day, which showed obvious regional difference. The annual average PCD and PCP were 0.62 and 43 five-day during 1961-2010 respectively. The climatic tendency of PCD in each station wasn’t significant, while that of PCP decreased obviously in Qingyun and Fucheng stations and increased significantly in Haiyang station during 1961-2010. The annual PCD and PCP didn’t change abruptly mutation from 1961 to 2010, and existed the dominant oscillation periods with five years and eight years cycle. The spatial distribution of PCD and PCP in high flow years and low flow years were obviously different. The annual precipitation was positively correlated with the annual PCD in Shandong Province, while it was positively correlated with the annual PCP as a whole, but the correlation coefficients were more different.

Key words: Shandong Province, precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP), inhomogeneity

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