干旱气象

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

宁夏降水变化及其对青藏高原加热场的响应

  

  1. 1.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225;
    2.宁夏回族自治区银川市气象局,宁夏银川750002;
    3.宁夏回族自治区气候中心,宁夏银川750002
  • 出版日期:2015-08-31 发布日期:2015-08-31
  • 通讯作者: 朱晓炜
  • 作者简介:王迎春(1967-),女,工程师,主要从事气象业务和雷电监测预警以及防雷技术服务管理工作.E-mail:nxqxwyc@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    科技部社会公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY201306027)、宁夏重点实验室开放基金"青藏高原加热场对宁夏降水的影响"和宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金(NZ12281)共同资助

Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in Ningxia and It’s Response to Heating Field over Tibetan Plateau

  1. 1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;
    2. Yinchuan Meteorological Bureau of Ningxia, Yinchuan 750002, China;
    3. Ningxia Climate Centre, Yinchuan 750002, China
  • Online:2015-08-31 Published:2015-08-31

摘要:

基于1961~2012年宁夏各站逐月降水资料,通过趋势分析和EOF方法,对不同季节降水的时空变化规律进行分析得出,近52 a来,宁夏降水整体呈下降趋势,且下降幅度由北向南明显增大;在季节分布上,春、夏、秋季的降水量均呈减少趋势,尤其秋季降水减少趋势最显著,冬季降水呈现上升趋势,变化幅度也是由北向南逐渐增大。结合高原加热场资料,通过SVD方法,寻找高原加热场对宁夏月降水的高影响时期,发现6月降水与前期11月至次年1月的加热场呈负相关,11月降水与前期11月至次年1月的加热场呈正相关;4~5月加热场对后期7、8月的降水有显著影响,前者为正相关,后者为负相关。重新构建新的左右向量,进一步找出不同影响时期的敏感区域,发现在加热场对宁夏降水的高影响时期内,敏感区域不同。其中,银川市和海原、同心、中宁交界处及隆德县3个区域为前期加热场对宁夏6月降水的高敏感区;7月敏感区域位于中部干旱带,尤其是海原、中卫附近;8月敏感区域在引黄灌区和隆德附近;11月敏感区域在南部山区附近。

关键词: 降水, EOF, SVD, 高原加热场

Abstract:

Based on the monthly precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia during 1961-2012, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation in four seasons were analyzed by using trend analysis and EOF methods, firstly. Combined the heating field data over Tibetan Plateau, the responses of monthly precipitation to heating field over Tibetan Plateau were researched by SVD method. The results showed that the annual precipitation in Ningxia during 1961-2012 presented a declining trend on the whole, especially it was obvious in southern mountainous region. The precipitations in spring, summer and autumn decreased from 1961 to 1982, especially the declining rate was the fastest in autumn, while it increased in winter, and the change degree gradually increased from south to north. In addition, the correlation between the heating field from last November to January over Tibetan Plateau and precipitation in June in Ningxia was negative, while it was positive with precipitation in November. The influence of heating fields from April to May on precipitation in July and August was significant, the former was positive correlation, while the latter was negative correlation. During the influence of heating field over Tibetan Plateau on precipitation in Ningxia, the sensitive areas were different. The highly sensitive areas in June located in Yinchuan, Longde and the border of Haiyuan, Tongxin, Zhogning, and in the middle arid area in July, especially in Haiyan and Zhongwei, in irrigation area and Longde in August, and the southern mountainous region in November.

Key words: precipitation, EOF, SVD, heating field over Tibetan Plateau

中图分类号: