浙江省中尺度数值预报系统的地表太阳辐射预报订正方法

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-02-0327

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用2019年杭州站辐射观测数据及浙江省中尺度数值预报业务系统(Zhejiang WRF ADAS real_time modeling system,ZJWARMS)逐时模拟结果,评估ZJWARMS对地表太阳辐射的模拟效果。在此基础上,选取ZJWARMS输出的短波辐射通量、云量、地表温度、比湿等10个气象因子,建立不同天气分型的地表太阳辐射预报(model output statistics,MOS)订正模型。结果表明:ZJWARMS能较好地模拟太阳辐射的日变化特征,其与观测值的相关系数达0.82,但总体上模拟值较观测值偏大,晴天时误差相对较小,阴雨天时误差明显增大。MOS模型订正后,预报效果明显改进,平均绝对百分比误差由订正前的273.4%下降至46.3%,均方根误差由246.7 W·m^-2下降至105.0 W·m^-2。MOS模型订正效果在不同月份存在一定差异,8月订正效果最好,订正后平均绝对百分比误差由126.6%下降到26.3%,4月订正效果相对较差,订正后平均绝对百分比误差为56.6%。

关键词: ZJWARMS, 地表太阳辐射, 效果评估, 订正

Abstract:

Using the radiation observational data at Hangzhou station and the hourly simulation output data by Zhejiang WRF ADAS real_time modeling system (ZJWARMS), the forecast effect of radiation was evaluated in 2019. On this basis, the MOS correction models under different weather conditions were built based on ten meteorological factors from ZJWARMS output, including shortwave radiation flux, cloud cover, surface temperature, humidity, etc. The results showed that ZJWARMS had a good ability in simulating the diurnal variations of surface solar radiation, the correlation coefficient between simulation value and observation value of radiation was 0.82. However, the system generally overestimated surface solar radiation. The lowest error appeared on sunny days, while there was a significant increase of error on overcast days or rainy days. The correction model could effectively improve the prediction effect of surface solar radiation. After the correction of MOS model, the mean absolute percentage error decreased from 273.4% to 46.3%, and the root mean square error dropped from 246.7 W·m^-2 to 105.0 W·m^-2. The correction effect exited difference in different months, and that in August was the best, and the mean absolute percentage error decreased from 126.6% to 26.3%, while the correction error was larger in April, the mean absolute percentage error was 56.6%.

Key words: ZJWARMS, surface solar radiation, effect evaluation, correction

中图分类号:

P422.1

顾婷婷, 潘娅英, 张加易. 浙江省中尺度数值预报系统的地表太阳辐射预报订正方法[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(2): 327-332.

GU Tingting, PAN Yaying, ZHANG Jiayi. Correction method of surface solar radiation forecast based on ZJWARMS[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(2): 327-332.

图/表 6

图1 2019年杭州站地表太阳辐射观测值与ZJWARMS模拟值(a)及均方根误差(b)逐时变化

Fig.1 The hourly variation of surface solar radiation observation value and simulation value by ZJWARMS (a) and root mean squared error (b) at Hangzhou station in 2019

表1 2019年不同天气条件下杭州站地表太阳辐射观测值与ZJWARMS模拟值对比分析

Tab.1 The comparison analysis of surface solar radiation observation value and simulation value by ZJWARMS at Hangzhou station under different weather conditions in 2019

天气类型	地表太阳辐射/(W·m^-2)		平均绝对百分比误差/%	相关系数
天气类型	观测值	模拟值	平均绝对百分比误差/%	相关系数
中雨及以上	31.7	187.8	723.3	0.61^**
阴天或小雨	105.9	335.2	239.7	0.63^**
多云	282.3	464.4	97.8	0.69^**
晴天	572.4	570.7	33.1	0.83^**

表2 ZJWARMS输出的气象因子与地表太阳辐射观测值的相关系数

Tab.2 The correlation coefficients between meteorological factors outputed by ZJWARMS and observated surface solar radiation

气象因子	相关系数
10 m比湿	0.168^**
地表温度	0.596^**
2 m气温	0.423^**
2 m相对湿度	-0.413^**
2 m水汽混合比	0.168^**
地表气压	-0.233^**
总云量	-0.318^**
入射短波辐射通量	0.791^**
500 hPa相对湿度	-0.188^**
850 hPa露点温度	0.103^*

图2 杭州站2019年4个典型月份地表太阳辐射观测值、ZJWARMS模拟值及MOS模型订正值的对比

Fig.2 Comparison of surface solar radiation observation values with simulation values by ZJWARMS and correction values by MOS model at Hangzhou station in four typical months of 2019

图3 杭州站2019年4个典型月份07:00—18:00ZJWARMS模拟的地表太阳辐射及MOS模型订正结果的平均绝对百分比误差逐时变化

Fig.3 The hourly variation of mean absolute percent error of surface solar radiation simulation values by ZJWARMS and correction values by MOS model at Hangzhou station from 07:00 BST to 18:00 BST in four typical months of 2019

表3 杭州站2019年4个典型月份ZJWARMS模拟及MOS模型订正后地表太阳辐射的误差分析

Tab.3 The error analysis of surface solar radiation simulation values by ZJWARMS and correction values by MOS model at Hangzhou station in four typical months of 2019

月份	方案	均方根误差/(W·m^-2)	平均绝对百分比误差/%	相关系数
1月	ZJWARMS模拟	250.7	375.8	0.71^**
	MOS模型订正后	81.6	54.9	0.90^**
4月	ZJWARMS模拟	275.0	287.9	0.72^**
	MOS模型订正后	122.9	56.6	0.91^**
8月	ZJWARMS模拟	229.5	126.6	0.77^**
	MOS模型订正后	105.4	26.3	0.94^**
10月	ZJWARMS模拟	240.7	324.7	0.67^**
	MOS模型订正后	107.1	49.9	0.91^**

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