WRF模式的陆面过程方案对积雪的敏感性分析

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2025-06-0953

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

积雪对地表能量过程的复杂影响是冬季复杂地形区数值模拟的关键不确定源，亟待深入研究。利用WRF v4.3模式，针对兰州新区2014年有雪期（2月18—26日）与无雪期（1月11—19日）开展模拟对比试验，基于4座测风塔观测数据，系统评估了SLAB、Pleim-Xiu、RUC和NoahMP 4种陆面方案对近地面气象要素的模拟性能，揭示了积雪对模拟精度的影响及其对陆面方案的敏感性。结果表明，无雪期模拟效果良好：气温模拟相关系数（R）为0.80~0.97，归一化中心均方根误差（Normalized Centered Root Mean Square Errors，NCRMSE）为0.27~0.60；风速模拟R为0.46~0.82，绝对偏差普遍低于0.5 m·s^-1，且能较好地再现坡风环流特征。而在积雪期，模拟精度显著下降：约半数方案气温R低于0.80，最大冷偏差超过5.00 ℃，NCRMSE升至0.38~0.79；风速NCRMSE增至0.77~2.52，风向频率误差可达无雪期的2倍。泰勒图分析进一步表明，积雪增强了模拟结果对陆面方案的敏感性，有雪期各方案归一化标准差的离散性显著大于无雪期。在4种方案中，NoahMP在积雪期表现最优，其气温R稳定在0.9左右，冷偏差最小，且NCRMSE多低于0.5。准确表征积雪过程对提升冬季复杂地形区的气象模拟能力具有重要意义。

关键词: 兰州新区, WRF模式, 积雪效应, 陆面过程参数化方案, 近地面气象场

Abstract:

The complex influence of snow cover on surface energy processes constitutes a critical source of uncertainty in wintertime numerical simulations over complex terrain and therefore warrants further investigation. Comparative simulation experiments were conducted for a snow-covered period (18-26 February) and a snow-free period (11-19 January) in 2014 over the Lanzhou New Area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.3. Four land surface models (LSMs), SLAB, Pleim-Xiu, RUC, and NoahMP were systematically evaluated against observations from four meteorological towers to reveal the impact of snow cover on simulation accuracy and scheme sensitivity. Satisfactory performance was achieved during the snow-free period: correlation coefficients (R) of air temperature ranged from 0.80 to 0.97, with normalized centered root mean square errors (NCRMSE) of 0.27-0.60. The R of wind speed ranged from 0.46 to 0.82, and the absolute bias was generally below 0.5 m·s^-1, successfully reproducing slope wind circulation. Conversely, simulation accuracy declined significantly during the snow-covered period. R of air temperature for half of the LSMs decreased below 0.80, cold biases exceeded 5.00 ℃, and NCRMSE increased to 0.38-0.79. Wind speed NCRMSE increased to 0.77-2.52, while wind direction frequency errors doubled. Taylor diagram analysis demonstrated that snow cover enhanced the sensitivity to LSMs, indicated by increased dispersion in normalized standard deviation among the schemes. NoahMP exhibited the superior performance with the lowest cold bias under snow-covered conditions (R≈0.9; NCRMSE<0.5), emphasizing the significance of accurate snow process representation for improving winter meteorological simulation in complex terrain.

Key words: Lanzhou New Area, WRF simulation, snow cover, land surface scheme, near-surface meteorological fields

中图分类号:

P435

周燕艳, 王颖, 魏瑞瑞, 赵天一. WRF模式的陆面过程方案对积雪的敏感性分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2025, 43(6): 953-966.

ZHOU Yanyan, WANG Ying, WEI Ruirui, ZHAO Tianyi. Sensitivity of land surface schemes to snow cover in the WRF model[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2025, 43(6): 953-966.

图/表 10

图1 WRF模式四重嵌套模拟区域（a）和D04地形高度（填色，单位：m）与兰州新区4座测风塔（黑色圆点）分布（b）

Fig.1 WRF four-domain nested grid configuration (a) and terrain elevation (the color shaded, Unit: m) and locations of four meteorological towers (black dots) in the innermost D04 (b)

图2 2014年2月19日08:00积雪覆盖期（a）与2014年1月13日08:00无雪期（b）500 hPa位势高度（蓝色等值线，单位：dagpm）与温度（红色等值线，单位：℃）分布（红色星形为兰州新区位置）

Fig.2 The 500 hPa geopotential height (blue contour lines, Unit: dagpm) and temperature (red contour lines, Unit: ℃) at 08:00 on 19 February 2014 during snow-covered period (a) and 08:00 on 13 January 2014 during snow-free period (b) (The red star represents the location of Lanzhou New Area)

图3 2014年2月19日08:00积雪覆盖（a）与2014年1月13日08:00无积雪（b）D04区域MODIS遥感影像

Fig.3 MODIS true-color images showing the D04 region with snow cover (a) at 08:00 on 19 February 2014 and without snow cover at 08:00 on 13 January 2014 (b)

图4 积雪覆盖期各陆面方案T2及T70模拟值与观测值的散点图（*表示通过置信水平为95%的显著性检验，下划线数字为最优值。下同）

Fig.4 Scatter plot of T2 and T70 from various land surface schemes against observations during snow-covered period （* indicates significance at the 95% confidence level， the underlined numbers represent the optimal values. The same as below）

图5 积雪覆盖期WS10、WS70各测风塔观测值及不同方案模拟值的日变化

Fig.5 Diurnal variations of WS10 and WS70 observed and simulated by four land surface schemes at four meteorological towers during snow-covered period

图6 积雪覆盖期各测风塔10 m与70 m高度观测与不同方案模拟的风玫瑰图

Fig.6 Wind roses diagrams of the 10-m and 70-m observations from each meteorological tower， together with four land surface schemes during snow-covered period

图7 无雪期各陆面方案T2及T70模拟值与观测值的散点图

Fig.7 Scatter plot of T2 and T70 from various land surface schemes against observations during snow-free period

图8 无雪期WS10、WS70各测风塔观测值及不同方案模拟值的日变化

Fig.8 Diurnal variations of WS10 and WS70 observed and simulated by four land surface schemes at four meteorological towers during snow-free period

图9 无雪期各测风塔10 m与70 m高度观测与不同方案模拟的风玫瑰图

Fig.9 Wind roses diagrams of the 10-m and 70-m observations from each meteorological tower， together with four meteorological towers during snow-free period

图10 不同陆面方案各测风塔有雪、无雪条件下T2、T70、WS10及WS70归一化泰勒图

Fig.10 Normalized Taylor diagrams for T2， T70， WS10， and WS70 from four land surface schemes at four meteorological towers during snow-covered and snow-free periods

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