甘孜州植被覆盖度演变特征及其与气候因子的相关性研究

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2024-06-0944

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究甘孜州地区多年植被覆盖变化与气候因子的关系，可以增进对该区域生态环境发展和生态结构变化的了解，对甘孜州生态保护有重要意义。基于2003—2022年MODIS（Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）-NDVI（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index）数据，使用趋势分析、Hurst指数等分析甘孜州近20 a植被覆盖变化，利用与植被指数存在明显关联性的温度和降水数据，分析植被覆盖变化与气候因子的关系。结果表明，植被覆盖分布与海拔和流域存在一定关联，研究时段内甘孜州NDVI整体呈上升趋势。过去20 a，甘孜州植被覆盖上升区域约占其总面积的67.83%，且有25.37%的区域或将保持与当下相同的演化趋势。降水和温度的空间分布存在区域差异，降水在夏季有明显起伏变化，这与当地夏季受青藏高压影响存在一定联系；降水和温度影响可解释研究时段内区域植被覆盖变化的70%，且温度对植被覆盖变化的贡献高于降水。

关键词: 植被覆盖度, NDVI, 气候因子, 相关性分析, 甘孜州

Abstract:

It is of great significance to study the change of vegetation cover and the influence of climate factors in Ganzi Prefecture for ecological protection and development. Based on MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) -NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data during 2003-2022, trend analysis, Hurst index were used to analyze the changes in vegetation cover in Ganzi Prefecture over the past twenty years. Temperature and precipitation data which are significantly correlated with vegetation index were used to analyze the relationship between vegetation cover change and climate factors. The results indicated that NDVI in Ganzi Prefecture showed an overall upward trend during the study period, and the distribution of vegetation cover was correlated with altitude and watershed. In the past twenty years, the area of vegetation cover increasing accounted for 67.83% of the total area of Ganzi Prefecture, and 25.37% of the area may maintain the same evolution trend as the present in the future. There are regional differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature, and the precipitation fluctuates significantly in summer, which is related to the influence of Qinghai-Tibet High Pressure in summer. Compared with precipitation, the correlation between temperature and NDVI is more significant. The influence of precipitation and temperature can explain 70% of the regional vegetation cover change during the study period, and the contribution of temperature to vegetation cover change is higher than that of precipitation.

Key words: vegetation cover change, NDVI, climate factors, correlation analysis, Ganzi Prefecture

中图分类号:

P461+.7

王敏, 孙树峻, 张健, 李天方, 陈锐, 杨星, 肖雅文. 甘孜州植被覆盖度演变特征及其与气候因子的相关性研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(6): 944-952.

WANG Min, SUN Shujun, ZHANG Jian, LI Tianfang, CHEN Rui, YANG Xing, XIAO Yawen. Characteristics of vegetation cover change and its relationship with climate factors in Ganzi Prefecture[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(6): 944-952.

图/表 9

图1 甘孜州地形（填色，单位：m）及气象站点分布

Fig.1 Distribution of topography （the color shaded， Unit： m） and meteorological stations in Ganzi Prefecture

图2 2003—2022年甘孜州NDVI月（a）、年（b）均值序列

Fig.2 The variations of monthly (a) and annual (b) average NDVI from 2003 to 2022 in Ganzi Prefecture

图3 甘孜州2003—2022年平均NDVI（a）及NDVI变化趋势（b）的空间分布

Fig. 3 The spatial distribution of multi-year mean NDVI (a) and change trend of NDVI (b) from 2003 to 2022 in Ganzi Prefecture

图4 甘孜州NDVI 的Hurst指数空间分布

Fig.4 The spatial distribution of Hurst index of NDVI in Ganzi Prefecture

图5 2003—2022年甘孜州月均降水量（单位：mm）空间分布（a）与逐月降水量序列（b）

Fig.5 The spatial distribution of average monthly precipitation (Unit: mm) (a) and monthly precipitation series (b) from 2003 to 2022 in Ganzi Prefecture

图6 甘孜州2003—2022年多年月平均气温（单位：℃）空间分布（a）与逐月平均气温序列（b）

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of average monthly temperature (a) (Unit: ℃) and monthly average temperature series (b) from 2003 to 2022 in Ganzi Prefecture

图7 甘孜州2003—2022年月均降水量与NDVI的偏相关系数空间分布（a）及两者偏相关系数的逐月变化（b）

Fig.7 Spatial distribution of partial correlation coefficients between average monthly precipitation and NDVI (a) and time series of partial correlation coefficients between them (b) from 2003 to 2022 in Ganzi Prefecture

图8 甘孜州2003—2022年月平均气温与NDVI的偏相关系数空间分布（a）与两者偏相关系数的时间序列（b）

Fig.8 Spatial distribution of partial correlation coefficients between average monthly temperature and NDVI (a) and time series of partial correlation coefficient between them (b) from 2003 to 2022 in Ganzi Prefecture

图9 甘孜州2003—2022年降水（a）、温度（b）与NDVI相关系数的逐月变化

Fig.9 Monthly variation of correlation coefficients between precipitation (a), temperature (b) and NDVI from 2003 to 2022 in Ganzi Prefecture

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