中亚复合高温干旱事件识别与特征分析

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2024)-01-0019

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

由于复合高温干旱事件造成的综合效应远超普通干旱事件，复合高温干旱日益受到人们关注。基于中亚地区1981—2020年欧洲中期天气预报中心的第五代再分析陆地产品（Land Component of the Fifth Generation of European Reanalysis，ERA5-Land）的逐小时温度数据、月尺度潜在蒸散量数据和日尺度多源集成降水产品，计算标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index，SPEI）和日最高温度，识别复合高温干旱事件并分析其特征，得到以下结论：（1）复合高温干旱事件在中亚各地区空间分布上呈非集中趋势，1980年代、1990年代、2000年代和2010年代发生频次较高的区域分别位于东南部、北部、西北部和西部；（2）这些事件的时间分布表现出由大波动变为平稳小波动的趋势，且2020年之后将维持此平稳状态；（3）分析1984、1993、2010、2020年4个复合高温干旱事件典型年份，发现1984年高温干旱主要集中在中亚东南部，1993年仅零星地区偶发，2010年北部多发复合高温干旱事件，2020年则集中于西部地区。

关键词: 复合高温干旱, 中亚, 时空分析, 标准化降水蒸散指数

Abstract:

The compound drought and heat wave has been paid more and more attention and the combined effect is far more than ordinary drought events. The characteristic of the events was explored in Central Asia from 1981 to 2020, based on hourly temperature data and monthly potential evapotranspiration data of the Land Component of the Fifth Generation of European Reanalysis (ERA5-Land) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and daily multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation data. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and daily maximum temperature were calculated to identify the events. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The spatial distribution of compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia was not concentrated. The regions with high frequency of the events in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s were mainly distributed in the southeast, north, northwest and west, respectively. (2) In terms of temporal distribution, the general trend of the events had changed from large fluctuation to small fluctuation, and likely to remain stable after 2020. (3) Studying the four typical years of 1984, 1993, 2010 and 2020, it is concluded that the compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia were mainly concentrated in the southeast in 1984, sporadic occurrences in a few scattered regions in 1993，in the north in 2010 and in the west in 2020.

Key words: compound droughts and heat waves, Central Asia, spatiotemporal analysis, SPEI

中图分类号:

P426.616

杨英杰, 曹倩, 税玥. 中亚复合高温干旱事件识别与特征分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(1): 19-26.

YANG Yingjie, CAO Qian, SHUI Yue. Identification and characteristic analysis of compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(1): 19-26.

图/表 6

图1 中亚研究区

Fig.1 The study area in Central Asian

图2 1981—2020年中亚地区复合高温干旱事件发生频次

Fig.2 Frequency of compound drought and heat wave events in Central Asia from 1981 to 2020

图3 1981—1990年（a）、1991—2000年（b）、2001—2010年（c）和2011—2020年（d）中亚复合高温干旱事件频次的空间分布

Fig.3 Spatial distribution of frequency of compound drought and heat wave events in Central Asia during 1981-1990 (a)、1991-2000 (b)、2001-2010 (c) and 2011-2020 (d)

图4 中亚地区典型年份SPEI随时间的变化

Fig.4 The variation of SPEI in typical years in Central Asia

图5 中亚地区典型年份日最高温度随时间的变化

Fig.5 The variation of Tmax in typical years in Central Asia

图6 中亚地区1984（a）、1993（b）、2010（c）和2020年（d）复合高温干旱事件发生频次空间分布

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of frequency of compound drought and heat wave events in Central Asia in 1984 (a), 1993 (b), 2010 (c) and 2020 (d)

参考文献 25

[1]	戴新刚, 汪萍, 2020. 亚洲中部干旱气候研究综述与机理分析[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 14(1): 1-12.
[2]	邓铭江, 龙爱华, 章毅, 等, 2010. 中亚五国水资源及其开发利用评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 25(12): 1 347-1 356.
[3]	邓振镛, 文小航, 黄涛, 等, 2009. 干旱与高温热浪的区别与联系[J]. 高原气象, 28(3): 702-709.
[4]	黄婷婷, 林青霞, 吴志勇, 等, 2021. 黄河流域干旱时空特征及其与ENSO的关联性分析[J]. 人民黄河, 43(11): 52-58.
[5]	李忆平, 李耀辉, 2017. 气象干旱指数在中国的适应性研究进展[J]. 干旱气象, 35(5): 709-723. DOI
[6]	路金强, 甘容, 杨峰, 等, 2022. 基于SPEI指数的河南省干旱特征及与环流指数的相关性分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电, (4): 17-24.
[7]	彭宇, 李发东, 徐宁, 等, 2021. 1990—2019年中亚五国干旱状况时空变化特征及大气涛动驱动分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 29(2): 312-324.
[8]	阮宏威, 于静洁, 2019. 1992—2015年中亚五国土地覆盖与蒸散发变化[J]. 地理学报, 74(7): 1 292-1 304.
[9]	史婉蓉, 2022. 中亚地区多源降水产品评估及极端降水日变化特征研究[D]. 南京: 南京信息工程大学.
[10]	武新英, 郝增超, 张璇, 等, 2021. 中国夏季复合高温干旱分布及变异趋势[J]. 水利水电技术(中英文), 52(12): 90-98.
[11]	姚玉璧, 张强, 李耀辉, 等, 2013. 干旱灾害风险评估技术及其科学问题与展望[J]. 资源科学, 35(9): 14.
[12]	余兴湛, 蒲义良, 康伯乾, 2022. 基于SPEI的广东省近50 a干旱时空特征[J]. 干旱气象, 40(6): 1 051-1 058.
[13]	张乐园, 王弋, 陈亚宁, 2020. 基于SPEI指数的中亚地区干旱时空分布特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 37(2): 331-340.
[14]	张方慧, 王巧荣, 2023. “一带一路”背景下中国与中亚国家合作新进展与发展方向论析[J]. 宁夏社会科学, (4): 65-72.
[15]	赵惠珍, 何涛, 郭瑞霞, 等, 2023. 基于SPEI的甘南高原气象干旱变化特征[J]. 干旱气象, 41(5): 688-696. DOI
[16]	HU Z Y, ZHANG C, HU Q, et al, 2014. Temperature changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 based on multiple datasets[J]. Journal of Climate, 27(3): 1 143-1 167.
[17]	MAZDIYASNI O, AGHAKOUCHAK A, 2015. Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(37): 11 484-11 489.
[18]	MUKHERJEE S, MISHRA A K, 2021. Increase in compound drought and heatwaves in a warming world[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(1): e2020GL090617. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090617
[19]	PEÑA-GUERRERO M D, UMIRBEKOV A, TARASOVA L, et al, 2022. Comparing the performance of high-resolution global precipitation products across topographic and climatic gradients of Central Asia[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 42(11): 5 554-5 569.
[20]	TESKEY R, WERTIN T, BAUWERAERTS I, et al, 2015. Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events[J]. Plant, Cell & Environment, 38(9): 1 699-1 712.
[21]	VICENTE-SERRANO S M, BEGUERÍA S, LÓPEZ-MORENO J I, 2010. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate, 23(7): 1 696-1 718.
[22]	WANG C, LI Z, CHEN Y N, et al, 2022. Increased compound droughts and heatwaves in a double pack in Central Asia[J]. Remote Sensing, 14(13): 2 959-2 977.
[23]	WANG W J, ZHANG Y Q, GUO B, et al, 2021. Compound droughts and heatwaves over the Huai River Basin of China: From a perspective of the magnitude index[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(11): 3 107-3 119.
[24]	WU X Y, HAO Z C, TANG Q H, et al, 2021. Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 41(1): 393-403.
[25]	YE L, SHI K, XIN Z H, et al, 2019. Compound droughts and heat waves in China[J]. Sustainability, 11(12): 3 270-3 283.