气象条件对深圳市罗湖区上呼吸道感染就诊人数的影响

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2021)-06-0995

干旱气象 ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (06): 995-1005.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2021)-06-0995

气象条件对深圳市罗湖区上呼吸道感染就诊人数的影响

黄开龙¹^,⁴(), 林锦春², 马盼¹, 黄文静², 陆俊翔², 唐小新³, 王式功¹()

1.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都 610225
2.深圳大学第三附属医院,广东深圳 518000
3.广东省深圳市气象服务中心,广东深圳 518000
4.广东省汕头市气象局,广东汕头 515041

收稿日期:2020-04-25 修回日期:2021-01-05 出版日期:2021-12-30 发布日期:2021-12-31
通讯作者: 王式功
作者简介:黄开龙(1995— ),男,广东汕头人,硕士研究生,研究方向为气象环境与健康. E-mail: huangkl123@126.com。
基金资助:
“医学气象学服务于全民大健康的应用研究”(2019ZDIANXM09);国家自然科学基金共同资助(41775147)

Influence of meteorological factors on number of upper respiratory tract infection visits in Luohu of Shenzhen

HUANG Kailong¹^,⁴(), LIN Jinchun², MA Pan¹, HUANG Wenjing², LU Junxiang², TANG Xiaoxin³, WANG Shigong¹()

1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
2. The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518000, Guangdong, China
3. Shenzhen Meteorological Service Center of Guangdong Province, Shenzhen 518000, Guangdong, China
4. Shantou Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province, Shantou 515041, Guangdong, China

Received:2020-04-25 Revised:2021-01-05 Online:2021-12-30 Published:2021-12-31
Contact: WANG Shigong

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区49家社区健康服务中心上呼吸道感染(简称“上感”)的逐日就诊人数和同期气象要素资料,利用不同时间尺度分析上感就诊人数的变化特征,并采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)、广义线性模型(GLM)等研究不同气象要素与深圳地区上感就诊人数的关系。结果表明:深圳市罗湖区上感就诊人数存在明显的季节性变化,春季3—4月、夏季7月和冬季12月至次年1月为发病高峰时段,分别对应24节气中的清明、小暑、小寒节气。DLNM反映气温为主控因素,它对上感就诊人数的影响以冷效应为主,相对风险(RR)在滞后4 d达到峰值(RR为1.041,95%置信区间为1.022~1.060),且女性较男性、中老年人较少儿更易受冷效应的影响;其次是暑期的热效应和春季温度多变的影响。湿度影响主要表现为低湿效应,其相对风险在当天达到峰值(RR为1.058,95%置信区间为1.049~1.068)。气压和风速影响则表现为高压效应和大风效应,RR在滞后1 d达最高。总之,深圳市冬、春季冷空气活动及其所反映的低温、低湿、大风等产生的冷效应是诱发上呼吸道感染的关键因素,其次是夏季持续高温的影响,两者都应予以重点及时防范。

关键词: 上呼吸道感染, 气象要素, 季节性变化, 冷效应, 滞后效应, 24节气

Abstract:

The daily number of patients with upper respiratory tract infection (URI) in 49 community health service centers in Luohu of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018 and meteorological data in the same period were collected to analyze the changing characteristics of the number of patients with URI at different time scales. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and generalized linear model (GLM) were used to study the relationship between different meteorological factors and the number of patients with URI in Shenzhen. The results show that there was a significant seasonal change for the number of patients with URI in Luohu of Shenzhen. The peak periods of cases were March to April in spring, July in summer and December to next January in winter, corresponding to Pure Brightness, Lesser Heat and Lesser Cold of the 24 solar terms, respectively. The DLNM model showed that air temperature was the main impact factor, and its effect on the number of patients with URI presented mainly cold effect, the relative risk (RR) reached the peak after 4 days lag (RR was equal to 1.041, the 95% confidence interval was between 1.022 and 1.060). Women were more affected by cold effect than men, and middle-aged and elderly people were more affected by cold effect than children. Another important factors were thermal effect in summer and the variable temperature in spring. The influence of humidity presented mainly low humidity effect, and the relative risk reached the peak (RR was equal to 1.058, the 95% confidence interval was between 1.049 and 1.068) on the same day. Pressure and wind speed showed high pressure effect and strong wind effect, and RR reached the highest after 1 day lag. In conclusion, cold air activities in winter and spring and their cold effects such as low temperature, low humidity and strong wind were the key factors to induce URI, followed by the impact of continuous high temperature in summer, both of them should be focused on timely prevention.

Key words: upper respiratory tract infection, meteorological element, seasonal variation, cold effect, hysteresis effect, 24 solar terms

中图分类号:

黄开龙, 林锦春, 马盼, 黄文静, 陆俊翔, 唐小新, 王式功. 气象条件对深圳市罗湖区上呼吸道感染就诊人数的影响[J]. 干旱气象, 2021, 39(06): 995-1005.

HUANG Kailong, LIN Jinchun, MA Pan, HUANG Wenjing, LU Junxiang, TANG Xiaoxin, WANG Shigong. Influence of meteorological factors on number of upper respiratory tract infection visits in Luohu of Shenzhen[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2021, 39(06): 995-1005.

图/表 14

表1 2014—2018年深圳市不同气象要素统计特征

Tab.1 The statistical characteristics of meteorological elements in Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

	日平均气温/ ℃	日最高气温/ ℃	日最低气温/ ℃	日平均相对湿度/%	日平均气压/ hPa	日平均风速/ (m·s^-1)	日降水量/ mm	气温日较差/ ℃	日均水汽压/ hPa
X±s	23.5±5.5	27.1±5.6	21.1±5.6	75.4±12.6	1005.6±6.6	1.9±0.8	5.3±17.0	6.0±2.0	23.2±8.3
P_min	3.5	6.5	1.7	19	983.1	0.4	0	0.9	2.7
P₂₅	19.4	23.2	16.8	70	1000.8	1.4	0	4.6	16.4
P₅₀	24.8	28.4	22.5	77	1005.6	1.8	0	5.9	24
P₇₅	28.2	31.7	25.9	84	1010.4	2.3	1.2	7.3	31
P_max	33	37	29.9	100	1027.3	6.1	187.8	14	38

表2 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区上感就诊人数统计单位:人

Tab.2 Summary statistics of the number of upper respiratory tract infections (URI) visits in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

人群	X±s	P_min	P₂₅	P₅₀	P₇₅	P_max
总人群	764.3±258.5	6	629	741	875	2792
男性	391.2±131.9	2	321	379	450	1384
女性	373.0±128.8	1	305	361	430	1408
0~18岁	231.9±106.2	1	172	219	280	1047
19~59岁	470.1±153.7	4	392	455	539	1546
大于60岁	62.3±23.0	0	48	60	75	199

图1 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区上感就诊人数日变化

Fig.1 The daily variation of the number of URI visits in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

图2 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区逐日上感就诊人数月平均变化

Fig.2 The monthly mean variation of the number of daily URI visits in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

图3 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区不同节气的日平均气温及日上感就诊人数分布

Fig.3 The distribution of daily average temperature and the number of daily URI visits in Luohu district of Shenzhen during different solar terms from 2014 to 2018

表3 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区上感就诊人数与气象要素的Spearman相关系数

Tab.3 Spearman correlation coefficients between the number of URI visits and major meteorological elements in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

气象要素	人群
气象要素	全人群	男性	女性	0~18岁	19~59岁	≥60岁
日均气温	-0.120^**	-0.101^**	-0.135^**	0.025	-0.179^**	-0.187^**
日最高气温	-0.117^**	-0.098^**	-0.132^**	0.024	-0.175^**	-0.182^**
日最低气温	-0.137^**	-0.119^**	-0.151^**	0.013	-0.197^**	-0.203^**
日均相对湿度	-0.131^**	-0.129^**	-0.131^**	-0.032	-0.158^**	-0.159^**
气压	0.126^**	0.107^**	0.142^**	0.010	0.167^**	0.182^**
日均风速	-0.020	-0.021	-0.018	-0.067^**	0.010	0.013
日累计降水	-0.155^**	-0.150^**	-0.156^**	-0.124^**	-0.136^**	-0.111^**
日较差	0.098^**	0.100^**	0.093^**	0.055^*	0.101^**	0.094^**
水汽压	-0.147^**	-0.128^**	-0.161^**	0.009	-0.205^**	-0.212^**

图4 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区气温与上感就诊人数的暴露-反应关系三维图

Fig.4 Three-dimensional map of exposure-response relationship between temperature and number of URI visits in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

图5 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区气温关键表征值的相对风险剖面

Fig.5 Relative risk (RR) profile of temperature key characteristic value in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

表4 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区温度效应对不同人群上感就诊人数的影响

Tab.4 The effects of temperature on the number of URI visits in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

不同人群	RR及其95%置信区间
	冷效应(9 ℃)		热效应(31 ℃)
	累积期4 d	累积期10 d	累积期0 d	累积期4 d
全人群	1.06 (0.967~1.162)	1.239^* (1.088~1.411)	1.014 (0.939~1.095)	0.947 (0.833~1.076)
男性	1.057 (0.963~1.16)	1.241^* (1.088~1.415)	1.007 (0.931~1.088)	0.946 (0.831~1.077)
女性	1.063 (0.968~1.167)	1.238^* (1.084~1.413)	1.022 (0.945~1.104)	0.948 (0.832~1.079)
0~18岁	0.883 (0.786~0.993)	0.801 (0.676~0.949)	1.076 (0.984~1.176)	1.014 (0.873~1.177)
19~59岁	1.130^* (1.033~1.235)	1.409^* (1.243~1.598)	0.986 (0.913~1.065)	0.915 (0.806~1.04)
≥60岁	1.115^* (1.001~1.242)	1.597^* (1.376~1.854)	1.000 (0.91~1.098)	0.938 (0.802~1.097)

图6 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区湿度与上感就诊人数的暴露-反应关系三维图

Fig.6 Three-dimensional map of exposure-response relationship between humidity and number of URI visits in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

图7 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区湿度关键表征值的相对风险剖面图

Fig.7 Relative risk profile of humidity key characteristic value in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

表5 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区湿度效应对上感就诊人数的影响

Tab.5 The effect of humidity on the number of URI visits in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

人群	RR及其95%置信区间
	低湿效应(RH=36%)		高湿效应(RH=96%)
	滞后0 d	滞后3 d	滞后2 d	滞后14 d
全人群	1.072^* (1.061~1.085)	1.014^* (1.010~1.018)	1.010^* (1.005~1.014)	1.029^* (1.024~1.033)
男性	1.064^* (1.047~1.081)	1.013^* (1.008~1.019)	1.008^* (1.002~1.016)	1.027^* (1.020~1.033)
女性	1.082^* (1.065~1.100)	1.015^* (1.010~1.020)	1.012^* (1.005~1.018)	1.031^* (1.024~1.037)
0~18岁	1.063^* (1.041~1.086)	0.998 (0.991~1.005)	1.019^* (1.011~1.027)	1.044^* (1.036~1.052)
19~60岁	1.077^* (1.061~1.092)	1.020^* (1.015~1.025)	1.003 (0.997~1.009)	1.024^* (1.018~1.030)
>60岁	1.070^* (1.029~1.113)	1.028^* (1.014~1.042)	1.035^* (1.018~1.051)	1.013 (0.997~1.029)

图8 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区气压(a)、风速(b)与上感就诊人数的暴露-反应关系三维图

Fig.8 Three-dimensional map of exposure-response relationship between air pressure (a), wind speed (b) and the number of URI visits in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

图9 2014—2018年深圳市罗湖区高压(a)、大风(b)效应对上感就诊人数的相对风险剖面图

Fig.9 Relative risk profile of high-pressure (a) and strong wind (b) conditions to the number of URI visits in Luohu district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2018

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气象条件对深圳市罗湖区上呼吸道感染就诊人数的影响

Influence of meteorological factors on number of upper respiratory tract infection visits in Luohu of Shenzhen

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