China has been engaged in short-term climate prediction for nearly 70 years and was one of the earliest countries in the world to carry out short-term climate prediction and relevant researches. Since March 2021, the National Climate Center (NCC) of China has released officially the climate prediction for the next 15-30 days, months and seasons through its website. Short term climate forecasts are receiving increasing attention from society. In 2013, based on the operational prediction of short-term climate and the previous assessment methods, the Department of Forecasting and Networking of China Meteorological Administration issued a new method to assess operationally the short-term climate prediction. Using this new method, this paper analyzed the evaluation results for monthly climate prediction products during 1971-2020 released by the NCC. The results show that the prediction scores are lower in the winter half year than in the summer half year both for monthly temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly percentage. The forecast skill of monthly temperature anomaly has been improved significantly in recent 50 years. The anomaly correlation coefficient between the forecast and observation of monthly temperature anomaly are positive in most parts of China throughout the year, except for December. The prediction level of monthly precipitation anomaly percentage in China in 50 years shows a trend of decreasing first and then increasing, especially in the past 30 years, it shows a relatively stable upward trend. The distribution of correlations between precipitation forecast and observation has three main patterns, which is much more complex than that of temperature, suggesting that the precipitation forecast is more challenging than temperature forecast.
In the context of global warming, soil moisture is a key factor affecting climate drought, crop growth, and environmental change. Using remote sensing technology to estimate soil moisture not only enhances drought early warning capabilities but also holds significant implications for agricultural development, ecological protection, and restoration. This article summarizes the currently used remote sensing data for soil moisture inversion and analyzes its development trends. It elaborates in detail on the principles, advantages, and disadvantages of each inversion method from optical and active-passive microwave perspectives, and further explores four main areas of soil moisture research: active-passive microwave, multisource data fusion, spatial scale conversion, and methods and model improvements. Finally, it outlines the evolutionary trends of remote sensing technology in the field of soil moisture inversion and presents a future outlook.
Based on the drought disaster data of the Heng-Shao drought corridor from 1961 to 2018, the meteorological drought composite index (MCI) was used to study the drought monitoring and evaluation methods of the Heng-Shao drought corridor. The results are as follows: (1) During the peak period of crop water demand (from June to October), the drought events with weighted mean of regional MCI (DI) less than or equal to -0.5 and the process duration greater than or equal to 16 days were included in the statistics, and the three elements such as the extreme intensity, cumulative intensity and duration of DI index were the best factors for annual regional drought assessment. Furthermore, based on the three elements of DI index, the annual assessment index of regional drought (MCIe) calculated by using the TOPSIS method was the best. (2) Based on the MCIe index, the combined grading method of average value and standard deviation was used to obtain the threshold of regional drought degree for normal, drought, severe drought, and extreme drought years. It was found that the MCIe index had a strong ability to assess extreme drought years and normal years in the Heng-Shao district, and had good assessment ability for 2019 and 2020. Furthermore, the extreme disaster year in 2013 was simulated, it was found that the MCIe index could better capture the change of drought in the Heng-Shao drought corridor. Therefore, the MCIe index could support the rapid assessment and early warning of drought in the Heng-Shao drought corridor to some extent.
Water resource is very lack in Qingyang city which is located to resources very difficult to exploit,sustainable development.a saresult total thercs a great short the central region of Loess Plateau, and existing waof available water resource,and it prevents society economy from water resource and this paper, and some problems in utilization of water resource were its utilization status in Qingyang city were surveyed in analyzed combining the local economy and geographical characteristic, and the basic countermeasures of sustainable utilization in water resource were brought forward too.
According to the observational data of aerosols over Lanzhou city from June 2000 to May 2001, the concentration and size distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere including their yearly, monthly and daily variation were analyzed, and the influence of at-mosphere aerosols on human heath was discussed also. The results show that the variation tendencies of monthly mean density of PM10 and monthly mean number of persons infected with respiratory diseaseat the same period are basically coincident, they present nificant positive correlation. When aerosol concentration is on the high increase in 1-2 r avs.the number of persons infected respiratory disease will increase in 1~2 days.