Abstract:

In general，the historical data about natural disasters in small region is not enough to be used for estimating the probability distribution in risk estimation． In this paper，the probability of drought in Altay area was calculated by using the theory of the fuzzy mathematics and information diffusion，and the risk assessment of drought disaster and its regionalization were obtained based on Suefer． The results show that summer drought disaster frequency was higher in Altay area，the probability of drought and serious drought reached 80% and 30%，respectively． The probability of light drought risk was higher in the western and eastern region than that in the middle and northern area，but severe drought probability distribution was on the contrary，the higher risk region was in the middle and northern of Altay area，so these regions should be the key area for defensing drought disaster．

Key words: drought risk, information diffusion, K drought index, Altay area

摘要：

针对小区域历史干旱灾情资料缺乏，用传统的统计模型进行风险估计精度不高的特点，基于模糊数学和信息扩散理论，对干旱区阿勒泰地区夏旱进行分析，并结合Surfer 软件对夏旱风险进行了区划。结果表明，阿勒泰地区夏季旱灾年年发生，出现偏旱的风险概率接近80%，发生重旱的概率约30%，农牧业严重受损程度较大; 轻旱风险概率分布上东、西部大于北部和中部，重旱分布正好相反，干旱高风险区主要集中在中部及北部，这一地区应该成为阿勒泰防御农业干旱的重点区域。

关键词: 旱灾风险, 信息扩散, K 指数, 区划, 阿勒泰地区