J4 ›› 2004, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (2): 57-61.

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The Climate Change and Forecast of Drought during July and August in Longdong Region

WUAi-min1,DONGAn-xiang2,GUOJiang-yong1   

  1. 1.Qingyang Meteorological Bureau,Gansu Qingyan 745000,China;
    2.Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA,Lanzhou 730020,China
  • Received:2004-02-27 Revised:2004-04-22 Online:2004-06-30 Published:2004-06-30

陇东伏旱的气候变化及预报

吴爱敏1董安详2郭江勇1   

  1. 1.庆阳市气象局,甘肃 庆阳 745000;2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃 兰州 730020
  • 作者简介:吴爱敏(1967—),女,河南温县人,高级工程师,主要从事天气预报研究。E-mail:qxjwam@sohu.com
  • 基金资助:

    甘肃省科技厅《西北重大干旱事件的物理成因研究》项目(GS012-A45-118)资助

Abstract:

The drought index is defined by precipitation and evaporation in Longdong region during July and August in this paper,and it is used to denote drought.The drought climate feature is discussed by analyzing its precipitation and the drought index of 15 stations,and it is found 500 hPa mean situation is different in drought and rain yyear.The cause of drought is also discussed by the correlation between drought and Pacific temperature and 500hPa height feild,and finally the forecast model has been established

Key words: the drough tindex;climate feature, cause, forecast

摘要:

利用陇东伏期降水量和蒸发量两要素,定义了伏旱指数来定量表达伏旱,通过对陇东15县(区)伏期降水和伏旱指数的分析,探讨了陇东伏旱的气候特征。对陇东伏期的500hPa平均形势,旱年及多雨年环流特征进行分析,找出旱年、多雨年的主要差异。通过500hPa高度场、太平洋海温与伏旱的相关性,探讨影响陇东伏旱的成因。最后建立了伏旱的预测模型,并进行了预报,经评定效果良好。

关键词: 伏旱指数, 气候特征, 成因, 预报

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