Abstract:  Based on road overwater blocking events and cumulative precipitation data in corresponding period in Hainan Province from 2015 to 2018, the general distribution characteristics of road overwater blocking events in Hainan Province and their correlation with precipitation factors were analyzed. The results show that 78.4% precipitation exceeded 100 mm within 24 hours before the events, and 49.0% precipitation exceeded 100 mm within 12 hours before the events. When the hourly rainfall exceeded 50 mm, the cumulative precipitation exceeded 100 mm within 24 hours and the hourly precipitation exceeded 30 mm, the daily precipitation exceeded 50 mm within 3-5 days and the rainfall exceeded 10 mm within 3-6 hours consecutively, the overwater blocking events might be triggered. The rank-correlation method was used for further quantitative analysis, and it showed that the risk of events increased by 1.3% and 0.7% respectively with the increase of 1 mm of cumulative precipitation in 3 and 24 hours. The Logistic risk prediction models of road overwater blocking events were established based on the cumulative precipitation of 3 hours and 24 hours before the occurrence of the event, respectively. When the two models were applied separately, the prediction ability of short-term heavy rainfall and total cumulative precipitation in early stage was insufficient. When the model was applied comprehensively by using the analytic hierarchy process, the prediction accuracy of the road overwater blocking events could reach 91.7%.

Key words: highway, rainfall, grey correlation, risk zoning

摘要： 应用2015—2018年海南省因台风暴雨造成的公路漫水阻断事件及事件发生前对应不同时段的累计降水量资料，分析海南公路漫水阻断事件的总体分布特征及其与降水的关系。结果表明，事件发生前24 h累计降水量78.4%超过100 mm，12 h累计降水量49.0%超过100 mm。当小时雨量超过50 mm，24 h累计降水量超过100 mm且小时雨量超过30 mm，连续3～5 d日降水量超过50 mm且连续3～6 h小时雨量超过10 mm时都可能引发公路漫水阻断事件。利用平滑曲线拟合方法进一步定量分析发现，随着3 h和24 h累计降水量每增加1 mm，公路漫水阻断事件发生的风险分别增加1.3%和0.7%。基于事件发生前3 h和24 h累计降水量分别建立了公路漫水阻断事件的Logistic风险预报模型，当两个模型单独应用时，分别对短时强降雨和前期累计降水总量的反映能力不足，而利用层次分析法将模型综合应用时，对公路漫水阻断事件的预测准确率可达91.7%。

关键词: 降水, 公路漫水阻断, Logistic, 风险预报