Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data and agricultural flood disaster data in Hainan Island from 1966 to 2015, the grey relation analysis method and correlation analysis method were used to revise the monitoring indicator of agricultural flood disaster. The agricultural flood disaster monitoring indicator was gradually selected by combining with historical flood records and agricultural areas suffering from agricultural flood disaster, the temporal and spatial distribution features of agricultural flood disaster were analyzed in the area for nearly 50 years using this indicator. The results are as follows:(1) The agricultural flood monitoring indicator was the initial indicator threshold plus 22 mm in Hainan Island. The agricultural flood index which was calculated by revised indicator had significant correlation with the agricultural flood-affected ratio, the inundated rate and the barren rate, and the correlation coefficients were 0.36 (P<0.05), 0.53 (P<0.01) and 0.40 (P<0.05), respectively. (2) The frequency of large agricultural flood increased relatively in the rest of the time in Hainan Island except the 1980s in which it decreased obviously. Meanwhile, the agricultural flood areas concentrated on the central and eastern regions and gradually expanded from the central and eastern regions to the northern and western regions.

Key words: agricultural flood, indicator revise, temporal and spatial analysis, Hainan Island

摘要： 利用海南岛1966—2015年逐日降水数据、农业洪涝灾情等资料，运用灰色关联度分析、相关分析等方法，修订海南岛农业洪涝灾害监测指标，基于修订后的指标分析近50 a海南岛农业洪涝灾害时空分布特征。结果表明：（1）修订的海南岛农业洪涝灾害监测指标在原始指标临界值基础上增加22 mm，修订指标计算出的农业洪涝指数与受灾率、成灾率和绝收率均呈显著相关，相关系数分别为0.36（P＜0.05）、0.53（P＜0.01）、0.40（P＜0.05）；（2）海南岛发生大涝次数除1980年代明显减少外，其余时段相对增多；（3）农业洪涝多发区集中在中东部，呈中东部向北部和西部地区逐步扩大的趋势。

关键词: 农业洪涝, 指标修订, 时空分析, 海南岛