Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 780-790.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-05-0780

• Research on Severe Drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Characteristics of compound hot and drought disasters in Hubei under the background of climate change

FAN Jinjin1,2(), QIN Pengcheng1(), SHI Ruiqin1, LI Mengrong2, DU Liangmin1   

  1. 1. Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China
    2. Hubei Public Meteorological Service Center,Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2022-10-11 Revised:2022-10-22 Online:2022-10-31 Published:2022-11-10
  • Contact: QIN Pengcheng

气候变化背景下湖北省高温干旱复合灾害变化特征

范进进1,2(), 秦鹏程1(), 史瑞琴1, 李梦蓉2, 杜良敏1   

  1. 1.武汉区域气候中心,湖北 武汉 430074
    2.湖北省公众气象服务中心,湖北 武汉 430074
  • 通讯作者: 秦鹏程
  • 作者简介:范进进(1988—),女,工程师,主要从事气候与气候变化研究. E-mail:313603476@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    湖北省气象局科技发展基金重点项目(2022Z05);湖北省低碳试点专项“湖北省气候变化事实及影响分析”

Abstract:

The frequent occurrence of extreme climate events caused by global climate change has become a common challenge for scientific community and human society. Due to diverse driving factors and complex spatio-temporal processes, there are significant differences in various regions of the world. Based on the daily precipitation, temperature and other observation data of 76 national meteorological stations in Hubei from 1961 to 2022, the regional hot and drought events in Hubei since 1961 are identified according to the regional hot process monitoring index and the regional drought process monitoring evaluation method. On this basis, the change characteristics of frequency, duration, intensity and influence of the events are analyzed. The results show that regional hot events increase in frequency and intensity, and occur year after year. The change trend of regional drought event frequency is not significant, but it presents a characteristic of mass, continuous and repeated occurrence. Compound hot and drought events increase significantly and their intervals are shortened. The comprehensive intensity of the hot process in the summer of 2022 is the strongest since 1961, which superimposes with the drought in the Yangtze River Basin, producing a chain complex impact from meteorological drought to hydrological drought, agricultural drought and socio-economic drought. Under the background of global warming, the frequent occurrence of extreme hot, drought, compound hot and drought events might become a new normal of climate in Hubei. It is urgent to strengthen the research on the causes of extreme events and disaster risk assessment, and improve the ability to cope with extreme hot, drought and their compound disasters.

Key words: climate change, Hubei, regional hot events, regional drought events, compound hot and drought events, new normal

摘要:

全球气候变化造成的极端气候事件频发已成为科学界和人类社会共同面临的挑战。气候变化驱动因素多样,时空过程复杂,全球不同区域存在显著差异。基于1961—2022年湖北省76个国家气象站逐日降水、气温等观测数据,根据区域性高温过程监测指标和区域性干旱过程监测评估方法,对湖北省1961年以来的区域性高温和干旱事件进行识别,在此基础上分析事件发生频率、持续时间、强度及其影响的变化特征。结果表明:区域性高温事件趋多增强且有连年发生的趋势;区域性干旱事件频次变化趋势不显著,但呈现群发、连发和重发特征;高温干旱复合事件有显著增加、间隔缩短的趋势。2022年夏季高温过程综合强度为1961年以来最强,与长江流域性干旱叠加,产生了从气象干旱到水文干旱、农业干旱和社会经济干旱的链式复杂影响。在全球变暖背景下,湖北省极端高温和干旱及其复合事件频发可能成为气候新常态,亟需加强极端事件的成因及其灾害风险评估研究,提高应对极端和复合型灾害的能力。

关键词: 气候变化, 湖北, 区域性高温事件, 区域性干旱事件, 高温干旱复合事件, 新常态

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