Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Forecast Test of T639 Model on Heavy Snowfall in Warm Area of Northern Xinjiang


  1. 1. Institute of Desert Meteorology of CMA, Urumqi 830002, China;
    2. Aletai Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Aletai 836500, China;
    3. Tuokexun Meteorological Station of Xinjiang, Tuokexun 838100, China;
    4. Qinghe Meteorological Station of Xinjiang, Qinghe 836200, China)
  • Online:2015-12-31 Published:2015-12-31



  1. 1.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002;
  • 作者简介:庄晓翠(1964- ),女,重庆人,本科,高级工程师,从事天气预报及其相关研究工作
  • 基金资助:



Based on the thirteen processes of heavy snowfall in warm area of northern Xinjiang from November to next March during 2009-2014, 72 hours forecast effect of T639 model was verified by using statistic and synoptics methods. And on this basis the application pattern of T639 model was established. The results showed that the errors of situation fields, the specific humidity on 850 hPa, 700 hPa and 500 hPa,the water vapor flux on 700 hPa, and the vorticity over middle and lower troposphere for heavy snowfall in warm area of northern Xinjiang forecasted by T639 model were relatively small, and the forecast precisions were higher, especially within 48 hours. The synoptic test showed that the consistency of the moisture flux divergence on 850 hPa, relative humidity, divergence, dew-point deficit in middle and low troposphere, and vertical velocity within 48 hours forecasted by T639 model with the actual were better, it has a better indicative significance for heavy snowfall in warm area of northern Xinjiang.

Key words: T639, heavy snowfall in warm area, forecast test


基于T639模式,针对2009~2014年11月至次年3月发生在新疆北部的13场暖区强降雪天气过程的72 h内预报效果进行统计学和天气学检验分析,建立该模式在新疆北部暖区强降雪天气中的应用模型。结果表明,T639模式对72 h内北疆暖区强降雪天气形势场和对流层低层比湿、水汽通量以及对流层中低层涡度的预报误差较小,精度较高,尤其是48 h内。天气学检验表明,该模式对48 h预报时效内850 hPa水汽通量散度、相对湿度、散度及对流层中低层温度露点差和垂直速度的预报一致性较好,对新疆北部暖区强降雪预报具有较好的指示意义。

关键词: T639, 暖区强降雪, 预报检验

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