Projection of evapotranspiration trend characteristics in the arid-prone belt of northern China

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-04-0600

Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2026, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (4): 600-612.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-04-0600

• Column on“ Regional Drought” • Previous Articles Next Articles

Projection of evapotranspiration trend characteristics in the arid-prone belt of northern China

LI Danhua¹^,³(), ZHANG Qiang²(), ZHANG Tiejun¹, YANG Jinhu², LIU Ziyan⁴, LIU Qing⁵, YANG Jingyi¹, HUANG Yuhan¹, LIU Liwei¹

¹ Gansu Provincial Climate Center， Lanzhou 730020， China
² Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology， China Meteorological Administration， Lanzhou 730020， China
³ School of Resources and Environment， Lanzhou University， Lanzhou 730000， Gansu
⁴ Chengdu University of Information Technology， Chengdu 610225， China
⁵ State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.， Ltd.， Beijing 102209， China

Received:2025-12-23 Revised:2026-03-31 Online:2026-08-30 Published:2026-09-16

北方干旱多发带蒸散变化趋势特征预估

李丹华¹^,³(), 张强²(), 张铁军¹, 杨金虎², 刘紫妍⁴, 刘青⁵, 杨景怡¹, 黄钰涵¹, 刘丽伟¹

¹ 甘肃省气候中心，甘肃兰州 730020
² 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，甘肃兰州 730020
³ 兰州大学资源与环境学院，甘肃兰州 730000
⁴ 成都信息工程大学，四川成都 610225
⁵ 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京 102209

通讯作者: 张强
作者简介:李丹华（1991—），女，甘肃民乐人，工程师，主要从事气候监测预测和气候变化研究。E-mail： 18093184011@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(42230611);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(42375039);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(42575204);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2026J025);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J025);甘肃省教育厅创新基金项目(2024B-278);气象灾害防御科普知识校园推广研究项目(25JRZA046);甘肃省气象局人才专项(2627rczx-C-QNYXRC-02);甘肃省气象局重点项目(Zd2026-C-2)

Abstract

Abstract:

As a key component of the water cycle, evapotranspiration (ET) not only directly affects soil moisture, river runoff, and groundwater recharge, but also plays an important role in the formation and evolution of droughts. Against the background of global warming, accurately projecting ET changes is of great significance for understanding the mechanisms of regional drought occurrence and enhancing drought resilience. Based on ET, mean temperature, and precipitation data from multiple models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study projects the variation trends of ET and its influencing factors in the arid-prone belt of northern China under three future emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that ET exhibits a significant increasing trend under all three emission scenarios, with trend rates of 1.6, 2.0, and 3.7 mm (10 a)^-1, respectively. The variation trend of ET shows a significant response to greenhouse gas emission levels, with higher emission intensities leading to more pronounced increases in ET. ET reaches its intra?annual maximum in summer, followed by spring and autumn, and is at its minimum in winter. The precipitation increase is most obvious in spring, and this contributes substantially to the ET increment. Under different emission scenarios, temperature is the dominant driving factor for ET variations, while precipitation plays a secondary regulatory role. The driving intensity of hydrothermal factors increases with rising emission levels. Precipitation constraint on ET weakens during part of summer, and ET in winter and spring is more sensitive to temperature.

Key words: the arid-prone belt of northern China, evapotranspiration, air temperature, precipitation, projection, influencing factors

摘要：

蒸散发（Evapotranspiration，ET）作为水循环的关键环节，不仅直接影响土壤墒情、河流径流和地下水补给，还在干旱形成与演变过程中发挥重要作用，在气候变暖背景下，准确预估ET变化对理解区域干旱发生机制、提升抗旱能力具有重要意义。本文基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6，CMIP6）多模式输出的蒸散、平均气温和降水量数据，预估未来三种不同排放情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5）下中国北方干旱多发带ET的变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明：三种排放情景下ET均呈明显增加趋势，变化趋势分别为1.6、2.0、3.7 mm·（10 a）^-1；ET的变化趋势对温室气体排放水平表现出显著响应，排放强度越高，ET增幅越显著；ET年内分布夏季最大，春、秋季次之，冬季最小；春季降水量增加最明显，对ET增量贡献较大；不同排放情景下，气温是ET变化的主导驱动因子，降水起次要调控作用，水热因子驱动强度随排放增大而提升，夏季部分时段降水对ET的约束作用减弱，冬春季节ET对气温的响应更为敏感。

关键词: 北方干旱多发带, 蒸散发, 气温, 降水, 预估, 影响因素

CLC Number:

P426.6
P456

LI Danhua, ZHANG Qiang, ZHANG Tiejun, YANG Jinhu, LIU Ziyan, LIU Qing, YANG Jingyi, HUANG Yuhan, LIU Liwei. Projection of evapotranspiration trend characteristics in the arid-prone belt of northern China[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2026, 44(4): 600-612.

李丹华, 张强, 张铁军, 杨金虎, 刘紫妍, 刘青, 杨景怡, 黄钰涵, 刘丽伟. 北方干旱多发带蒸散变化趋势特征预估[J]. 干旱气象, 2026, 44(4): 600-612.

Figures/Tables 15

Fig.1 Spatial distribution of China’s topography， the arid-prone belt of northern China and meteorological stations

Tab.1 Model name and resolution

气候模式名称	所在国家	网格分辨率（纬度×经度）
BCC_CSM2_MR	中国	160°×320°
CESM2	美国	192°×290°
EC-Earth3-Veg-LR	欧洲	160°×322°
CNRM-ESM2-1	法国	128°×258°
INM-CM4-8	俄罗斯	120°×182°
IPSL-CM6A-LR（France）	法国	144°×146°
MPI-ESM1-2-LR	德国	96°×194°
UKESM1-0-LL	英国	144°×192°
CMCC-ESM2	意大利	192°×290°
MIROC-ES2L	日本	64°×130°

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of ET in the arid-prone belt of northern China during the baseline period （1995-2014） based on ERA5 reanalysis data （a） spring，（b） summer，（c） autumn，（d） winter

Fig.3 Monthly variations of ET from ERA5 reanalysis data and simulations of different CMIP6 models （a）， and root mean square error （RMSE） of each model simulation relative to ERA5 （b） in the arid-prone belt of northern China during the baseline period

Fig.4 Interannual variations of annual and seasonal ET anomalies in the arid-prone belt of northern China from 2015 to 2100 based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean under different emission scenarios （a） spring，（b） summer，（c） autumn，（d） winter，（e） annual （Shaded areas indicate inter-model uncertainty， the same as below）

Tab.2 The variation trends of annual and seasonal ET in the arid-prone belt of northern China from 2015 to 2100 under different emission scenarios

排放情景	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	全年
SSP1-2.6	1.7	2.3	1.5	0.7	1.6
SSP2-4.5	2.5	2.4	1.9	1.1	2.0
SSP5-8.5	4.7	4.0	3.5	2.4	3.7
平均	3.0	2.9	2.3	1.4	2.4

Fig.5 Percentage changes of annual and seasonal ET relative to the baseline period for different decades over the arid-prone belt of northern China under different emission scenarios （a） spring，（b） summer，（c） autumn，（d） winter，（e） annual

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of ET variation trends over the arid-prone belt of northern China in different seasons from 2024 to 2100 under different emission scenarios （Unit： mm·（10 a）-1）

Fig.7 Interannual variations of annual and seasonal mean temperature anomalies in the arid-prone belt of northern China from 2015 to 2100 based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean under different emission scenarios （a）annual，（b） spring，（c） summer，（d） autumn，（e） winter

Tab.3 The variation trends of annual and seasonal mean temperature in the arid-prone belt of northern China from 2015 to 2100 under different emission scenarios

排放情景	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	全年
SSP1-2.6	0.17	0.16	0.17	0.16	0.17
SSP2-4.5	0.34	0.37	0.38	0.38	0.37
SSP5-8.5	0.60	0.70	0.74	0.79	0.70
平均	0.37	0.41	0.43	0.44	2.40

Fig.8 Spatial distribution of mean temperature variation trends over the arid-prone belt of northern China in different seasons from 2024 to 2100 under different emission scenarios （Unit： ℃·（10 a）-1）

Fig.9 Interannual variations of annual and seasonal precipitation anomalies in the arid-prone belt of northern China from 2015 to 2100 based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean under different emission scenarios （a） spring，（b） summer，（c） autumn，（d） winter，（e） annual

Tab.4 The variation trends of annual and seasonal precipitation in the arid-prone belt of northern China from 2015 to 2100 under different emission scenarios

排放情景	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	全年
SSP1-2.6	1.8	2.7	1.8	0.6	6.8
SSP2-4.5	2.7	4.6	2.1	1.2	10.6
SSP5-8.5	6.5	9.3	5.5	2.8	24.1
平均	3.7	5.5	3.1	1.5	13.8

Fig. 10 Monthly variations of ET, precipitation and mean temperature in the baseline period and their increments relative to the baseline period under different emission scenarios in the arid-prone belt of northern China during 2015-2100

Tab.5 Monthly correlation coefficients between ET and precipitation， and temperature under different emission scenarios in the arid-prone belt of northern China during 2015-2100

月份	ET与降水量			ET与气温
月份	SSP1-2.6	SSP2-4.5	SSP5-8.5	SSP1-2.6	SSP2-4.5	SSP5-8.5
1	0.32*	0.47*	0.64*	0.51*	0.77*	0.92*
2	0.42*	0.47 *	0.65*	0.58*	0.80*	0.94*
3	0.42*	0.26*	0.75*	0.54*	0.84*	0.93*
4	0.47*	0.49*	0.62*	0.69*	0.79 *	0.94*
5	0.39*	0.59*	0.62*	0.48*	0.73*	0.83*
6	0.50*	0.36*	0.40*	0.32*	0.55*	0.78*
7	0.48*	0.49*	0.67*	0.54*	0.67*	0.85*
8	0.20	0.51*	0.65*	0.72*	0.77*	0.89*
9	0.34*	0.34*	0.67*	0.62*	0.81*	0.90*
10	0.40*	0.31*	0.54*	0.49*	0.78*	0.89*
11	0.37*	0.58*	0.60*	0.58 *	0.81*	0.93*
12	0.40*	0.44*	0.60*	0.52*	0.77*	0.94*

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Projection of evapotranspiration trend characteristics in the arid-prone belt of northern China

北方干旱多发带蒸散变化趋势特征预估

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