Abstract:

To reveal the response characteristics of different underlying surfaces to climate change in the Taklamakan Desert, this paper adopts linear trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and correlation analysis to comparatively investigate the meridional variation characteristics of surface meteorological elements in this region over the past 30 years, based on the meteorological observation data from three stations located in the northern margin (Luntai), hinterland (Tazhong), and southern margin (Minfeng) of the desert during 1997-2024. The results are as follows: (1) Significant regional differences exist in the interannual variations of all meteorological elements. Temperatures in Luntai and Tazhong first decreased and then increased, while Minfeng experienced continuous warming, with Tazhong showing the fastest rate of increase. Precipitation significantly decreased in Luntai, slightly increased in Tazhong, and first increased and then decreased in Minfeng. Wind speeds significantly increased in Luntai, while Tazhong and Minfeng exhibited phased turning points. Sunshine duration significantly decreased only in Minfeng, and slightly increased at the other two stations. Relative humidity slightly increased in Luntai and Tazhong, while slightly decreasing in Minfeng. (2) Seasonal variations exhibited distinct regional patterns: Luntai showed pronounced autumn warming, significant wind speed increases in four seasons, and relative humidity increases in spring; Tazhong exhibited marked summer warming, substantial spring-summer wind speed fluctuations, and summer-autumn relative humidity increases; Minfeng demonstrated significant spring warming, pronounced sunshine duration decreases in four seasons, and autumn-winter relative humidity decreases. Precipitation at all three stations concentrated in summer, with Tazhong exhibiting the highest proportion (approximately 64%) of summer precipitation. (3) The correlations among various meteorological elements also exhibited regional differences: temperature and relative humidity showed a negative correlation at all three stations, while relative humidity and precipitation presented a positive correlation; temperature and precipitation were positively correlated at Luntai and Minfeng Stations but negatively correlated (-0.33) at Tazhong Station; temperature and wind speed showed a negative correlation at Luntai Station, a positive correlation at Tazhong Station, and nearly no correlation at Minfeng Station; temperature and sunshine duration were positively correlated at Luntai Station but negatively correlated at both Tazhong and Minfeng Stations. These differences highlight the complexity of climate change over different underlying surfaces in arid regions.

Key words: Taklimakan Desert, meteorological elements, evolutionary trends, regional differences, correlation

摘要：

为揭示塔克拉玛干沙漠不同下垫面对气候变化的响应特征，基于塔克拉玛干沙漠北缘（轮台）、腹地（塔中）与南缘（民丰）3个站点1997—2024年的气象观测数据，采用线性趋势、M-K检验及相关性分析，对比分析近30 a该区域地面气象要素的经向变化特征。结果表明：（1）各要素年际变化区域差异显著，轮台与塔中气温先降后升，民丰持续升温，其中塔中增温最快；轮台降水显著减少，塔中微弱增加，民丰先增后减；轮台风速显著上升，塔中与民丰存在阶段性转折；日照时数仅在民丰显著下降，其余两站微升；相对湿度在轮台与塔中小幅度上升，民丰小幅度下降。（2）各要素季节变化区域特征明显，轮台秋季增温明显、风速四季显著上升、春季相对湿度上升；塔中夏季增温明显、春夏季风速波动大、夏秋季相对湿度上升；民丰春季增温明显、四季日照时数显著减少、秋冬季相对湿度下降。3站降水均集中于夏季，塔中夏季降水占比最高（约64%）。（3）各要素相关性同样呈现出区域差异，3站气温与相对湿度均呈负相关，相对湿度与降水呈正相关；气温与降水在轮台、民丰站呈正相关，在塔中则为负相关（-0.33）；气温与风速在轮台为负相关，在塔中为正相关，而在民丰几乎为不相关；气温与日照时数在轮台为正相关，而在塔中、民丰站均为负相关。这些差异凸显了干旱区不同下垫面气候变化的复杂性。

关键词: 塔克拉玛干沙漠, 气象要素, 演变趋势, 区域差异, 相关性