Abstract:

The fixed-point refined analysis and forecast evaluation of meteorological elements are of great significance to the meteorological guarantee of major sports events. Based on the precipitation analysis product of three-source fusion data from the National Meteorological Information Center and the ERA5 reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the characteristics of meteorological elements were studied at the key venues (Xi’an Olympic Sports Centre, Yan’an University Gymnasium and Hanjiang open water area in Ankang) of the 14th National Games, and the prediction performance of precipitation, temperature and wind products of ECMWF, China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model (CMA-MESO) and grid-guided precipitation forecast products (SCMOC) was inspected at the three key venues. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The probability of precipitation at the three key venues was all high in the historical period of the 14th National Games. On the opening and closing days at Xi’an venue, the probability of precipitation was 46% and 44% and the average daily precipitation was 24.6 mm and 9.8 mm, respectively, and the peak of precipitation and precipitation probability mostly appeared from afternoon to evening. (2) The temperature was relatively low at night and increased rapidly in the daytime, and the daily average temperature mostly fluctuated between 12 ℃ and 18 ℃ at the three venues during the 14th National Games, which is generally appropriate to race. The easterly or southerly winds prevailed at the three venues, and the wind speed at Xi’an and Ankang venues was low, which is suitable to sport events, while the frequency of wind force above grade 4 at Yan’an venue was higher, which may have an adverse effect to sport events. (3) In general, the rain probability prediction accuracy of SCMOC at the three venues was the highest in the historical same period of the 14th National Games, but the frequency of precipitation forecast was significantly lower than the observation, which had the risk of missing forecast. In addition, SCMOC had obvious advantages for the rain probability prediction to precipitation processes with circulation situation of blocking pattern and two-trough and one-ridge pattern, while ECMWF had better performance to precipitation processes with low vortex bottom pattern, and TS value was stable. The accuracy of temperature prediction of ECMWF was better than that of SCMOC and CMA-MESO, while the wind speed forecast of SCMOC had absolute advantages. (4) During the 14th National Games, the performance differences among three forecast products were basically consistent with the historical period, but the overall forecast scores were higher than the historical period.

Key words: the 14th National Games, key venues, meteorological elements, refined features, forecast verification

摘要：

气象要素特征的定点精细化分析和预报评估对重大体育赛事气象保障有重要意义。利用国家气象信息中心三源融合降水分析产品和欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts，ECMWF）ERA5再分析资料，分析第十四届全国运动会（简称“十四运”）西安、延安、安康关键场馆的气象要素特征，并检验ECMWF、中国气象局中尺度数值预报系统（China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model，CMA-MESO）预报产品和国家气象中心网格指导预报产品（SCMOC）对3个关键场馆降水、气温和风的预报表现。主要结论如下：（1）十四运历史同期3个关键场馆发生降水的概率较高，开、闭幕日举行地西安场馆历史上出现降水的概率分别为46%和44%，平均降水量分别为24.6、9.8 mm，且降水量和降水概率峰值多出现在午后至傍晚。（2）十四运历史同期3个场馆夜间气温相对较低，白天快速升温，日平均气温大多为12~18 ℃，适宜赛事活动;3个场馆盛行偏东风或偏南风，西安、安康场馆风速小，适宜赛事活动，而延安场馆出现4级以上风的频次较高，对赛事有不利影响。（3）整体而言，十四运历史同期SCMOC在3个场馆的晴雨预报准确率最高，但降水频次预报较实况明显偏低，有漏报的风险;SCMOC对阻塞型和两槽一脊型降水过程的晴雨预报有明显优势，而ECMWF对低涡底部型降水过程预报表现较好，且TS值最稳定。ECMWF的气温预报准确率优于SCMOC和CMA-MESO，而SCMOC的风速预报具有绝对优势。（4）十四运期间3种产品的预报性能差异与历史同期基本一致，但整体预报评分高于历史同期。

关键词: 十四运, 关键场馆, 气象要素, 精细化特征, 预报检验