Spatiotemporal characteristics of thunderstorm gales and evaluation of effectiveness of early warning signals in Shanghai

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2025-04-0637

Abstract

Abstract:

To enhance the effectiveness of thunderstorm gale warning signals and achieve a scientific balance between accuracy and lead time, this study systematically evaluates the warning signals based on observation data from 245 automatic weather stations in Shanghai from 2016 to 2023 and warning signals issued by nine district meteorological stations, using the percentile method and synoptic classification. Results show that thunderstorm gales mainly occur from April to August, with the highest frequency in July; their diurnal variation is characterized by frequent occurrence from afternoon to nighttime; extremely strong gales are prone to appear in coastal and riverside areas; and the issuance of warning signals generally precedes the peak occurrence of gales by about 1 hour. The overall effectiveness score is 14.1 points (out of 100), and the average score for extremely strong thunderstorm gales is 28.2 points, with the warm shear type scoring the highest (49.2 points) and the stationary front shear type the lowest (12.1 points). During subtropical high-edge and stationary front shear processes, the western Pacific subtropical high tends to be stronger and displaced westward. Case studies indicate that extremely strong thunderstorm gales associated with the upper-level cold vortex under the influence of the northeast cold vortex achieve relatively higher scores. However, similar to other processes, when the wind force reaches beaufort scale force 12 or above, warnings are often issued later than the actual occurrence. Subtropical high-edge gales have a relatively wide impact range, and warnings are generally issued in a timely manner across districts, resulting in overall higher effectiveness scores.

Key words: extremely strong thunderstorm gales, strong convection, warning signals, effective evaluation, Shanghai

摘要：

为提升雷暴大风预警信号的有效性，并在准确率与时间提前量之间实现科学平衡，基于2016—2023年上海地区245个自动气象站观测资料及9个区气象台预警信号，采用百分位法与天气学分型方法，对雷暴大风预警信号进行系统评估。结果表明，雷暴大风主要发生在4—8月，7月最为频繁；其日变化特征表现为午后至夜间高发；沿江沿海地区易出现特强雷暴大风；雷暴大风预警信号的集中发布时间较实况峰值提前约1 h。整体有效性评分为14.1分（总分100分），特强雷暴大风的平均得分为28.2分，其中暖式切变型得分最高（49.2分），静止锋切变型最低（12.1分）。副热带高压边缘型及静止锋切变型雷暴大风过程中，西北太平洋副热带高压强度偏强、位置偏西。个例分析显示，东北冷涡影响下的高空冷涡型特强雷暴大风预警得分相对较高，但与其他过程类似，当风力达到12级以上时，预警发布时间往往滞后于实况。副高边缘型雷暴大风影响范围较广，各区预警发布普遍及时，有效性评分整体较高。

关键词: 特强雷暴大风, 强对流, 预警信号, 有效性评估, 上海

CLC Number:

P459.9

ZHOU Weidong, DAI Jianhua, GUAN Li, FU Jie, CHEN Hao, WANG Rui, LYU Qing. Spatiotemporal characteristics of thunderstorm gales and evaluation of effectiveness of early warning signals in Shanghai[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2025, 43(4): 637-645.

周伟东, 戴建华, 管理, 傅洁, 陈浩, 王蕊, 吕青. 上海雷暴大风时空特征及其预警有效性评估[J]. 干旱气象, 2025, 43(4): 637-645.

Figures/Tables 11

Tab.1 Criteria for the effectiveness rating of thunderstorm gales blue warning signals

风力等级	预警时效/min							漏报	空报
风力等级	≥90	60~<90	30~<60	15~<30	0~<15	-30~<0	<-30	漏报	空报
极大风≥7级或平均风≥6级	100	80	60	40	20	0	-40	-40
极大风≥6级或平均风≥5级	50	40	30	20	10				-20

Tab.2 Criteria for the effectiveness rating of thunderstorm gales yellow warning signals

风力等级	预警时效/min							漏报	空报
风力等级	≥60	45~<60	30~<45	15~<30	0~<15	-30~<0	<-30	漏报	空报
极大风≥9级或平均风≥8级	100	80	60	40	20	0	-60	-60
极大风≥8级或平均风≥7级	50	40	30	20	10				-30

Tab.3 Criteria for the effectiveness rating of thunderstorm gales orange warning signals

风力等级	预警时效/min							漏报	空报
风力等级	≥40	30~<40	20~<30	10~<20	0~<10	-30~<0	<-30	漏报	空报
极大风≥11级或平均风≥10级	100	80	60	40	20	0	-80	-80
极大风≥10级或平均风≥9级	50	40	30	20	10				-40

Tab.4 Criteria for the effectiveness rating of thunderstorm gales red warning signals

风力等级	预警时效/min							漏报	空报
风力等级	≥20	15~<20	10~<15	5~<10	0~<5	-30~<0	<-30	漏报	空报
极大风≥13级或平均风≥12级	100	80	60	40	20	0	-100	-100
极大风≥12级或平均风≥11级	50	40	30	20	10				-50

Fig.1 The monthly (a) and diurnal (b) variations of thunderstorm gale frequency and boxplot of maximum wind speed in each district (c) of Shanghai from 2016 to 2023

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of extremely strong thunderstorm gales in Shanghai from 2016 to 2023 （Unit： m·s-1）

Fig.3 Effectiveness score of thunderstorm gales warning in each district of Shanghai from 2016 to 2023

Tab.5 Effectiveness evaluation of extremely strong thunderstorm gales warning signals of different weather types in Shanghai from 2016 to 2023

影响系统类型	极大风速/ （m·s^-1）	出现次数	占比/%	预警信号有效性评分
副高边缘型	37.7	6	33.3	32.3
低槽冷锋型	25.8	3	16.7	24.8
暖区热对流型	28.3	2	11.1	23.2
暖式切变型	30.1	2	11.1	49.2
高空冷涡型	33.4	2	11.1	29.3
静止锋切变型	47.1	3	16.7	12.1

Fig.4 The composite geopotential height field (blue contours, Unit: dagpm), flow field (green lines), and temperature field (red contours, Unit: K) at 200 hPa (a), 500 hPa (b), 700 hPa (c) and 850 hPa (d) of the extremely strong thunderstorm gale at the edge of the subtropical high type （The color shaded is terrain, the same as below）

Fig.5 The composite geopotential height field (blue contours, Unit: dagpm), flow field (green lines), and temperature field (red contours, Unit: K) at 500 hPa (a), 700 hPa (b), 850 hPa (c) and 925 hPa (d) of the extremely strong thunderstorm gale at the stationary front shear type

Fig.6 The radar reflectivity factor (the color shaded, Unit: dBZ) at 0.5° elevation angle at 22:57 on April 15, 2023 (a) and at 23:12 on July 10, 2022 (b) overlaid with gales of force 7 or above (wind arrows, Unit: m·s-1) between 22:00-22:59 on the same day

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