Characteristics of 10-20 days low-frequency oscillation of autumn precipitation over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2024)-01-0054

Abstract

Abstract:

It is important to study the characteristics of precipitation anomaly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to improve the understanding and prediction ability of precipitation in the autumn extended period. In recent years, the phenomenon of “summer rain in autumn” has occurred frequently in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, showing the characteristics of precipitation intensity increase and more extreme precipitation in autumn. The autumn precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 was the most since 1981, and the precipitation at many stations in October of 2021 broke the historical extreme values. Based on daily precipitation data in autumn and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Morlet wavelet analysis and Lanczos filtering methods were used to analyze the low-frequency oscillation period of autumn precipitation and the evolution of atmospheric low-frequency circulation characteristics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 in order to explore its abnormal characteristics. The results show that the main low-frequency oscillation period of autumn precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 is 10-20 days, and the variance of low-frequency oscillation is 44%. The low frequency circulation at 500 hPa during the low frequency precipitation activity period shows that there is convergence movement before the low-pressure anomaly, which is conducive to the strengthening of the low-level anomaly cyclone and upward movement. During the low frequency precipitation activity period, an abnormal cyclone moves northward from the South China Sea to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which was conducive to the transport of warm and humid air from the south to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The intensity of water vapor transport will affect the intensity of precipitation process. The stronger the intensity of water vapor transport is, the greater the intensity of precipitation is.

Key words: the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, low-frequency oscillation, abnormal precipitation, autumn

摘要：

研究京津冀地区的降水异常特征对提高秋季延伸期降水的认识和预测能力具有重要作用。近年来京津冀地区“夏雨秋下”现象频繁发生，表现出秋季降水强度增强、极端降水增多特征。2021年京津冀地区秋季降水为1981年以来最多的一年，10月降水量多站突破历史极值。利用京津冀地区秋季逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，采用Morlet小波分析和Lanczos滤波等方法，对京津冀地区2021年秋季降水的低频振荡周期与大气低频环流特征演变进行分析以探究其异常特征。结果表明，2021年京津冀地区秋季降水的主要低频振荡周期为10~20 d，低频振荡方差达44%。低频降水活跃期500 hPa大气低频环流表现为低压异常前存在辐合运动，有利于低层异常气旋发展加强和上升运动加强；低频降水活跃期850 hPa有异常气旋自南向北移动至京津冀上空，有利于南方暖湿气流向京津冀地区输送。水汽输送强度会影响降水过程的强度，水汽输送强度越强，降水强度越大。

关键词: 京津冀地区, 低频振荡, 异常降水, 秋季

CLC Number:

P426.6

HAN Shiru, CHE Shaojing, YU Changwen, MA Guidong. Characteristics of 10-20 days low-frequency oscillation of autumn precipitation over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(1): 54-63.

韩世茹, 车少静, 于长文, 马贵东. 2021年京津冀秋季降水10~20 d低频振荡特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(1): 54-63.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1 Time series of autumn precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1981 to 2021

Fig.2 Time series of daily precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in autumn of 2021

Fig.3 Morlet wavelet analysis of autumn precipitation in 2021 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region （Shadows are regions that pass the 90% confidence level test）

Fig.4 Daily precipitation after 10~20 days filtering in autumn of 2021 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Fig.5 The distribution of geopotential height field anomaly (contours, Unit: dagpm) and divergency anomaly (the shaded, Unit: 10-6s-1) at 500 hPa in different phases (The “H” is for high pressure, and the “L” is for low pressure, the box shows the location of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the same as below)

Fig.6 The distribution of wind field anomaly (arrow vectors, Unit: m·s-1) at 850 hPa and vertical velocity anomaly (the shaded, Unit: Pa·s-1) at 700 hPa in different phases (The “A” and “C” are for abnormal anticyclone and abnormal cyclone, respectively)

Fig.7 The time-longitude profile of averaged low-frequency water vapor flux anomaly（isolines，Unit： kg·m-1·s-1） and water vapor flux divergence anomaly（the shaded，Unit： 10-5 kg·m-2·s-1） integrated of the whole layer along 32.5°N-45.0°N （The arrows represent each precipitation process，the same as below）

Fig.8 The time-latitude profile of averaged low-frequency water vapor flux anomaly（isolines，Unit： kg·m-1·s-1） and water vapor flux divergence anomaly（the shaded，Unit： 10-5 kg·m-2·s-1） integrated of the whole layer along 110°E-120°E

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