Identification and characteristic analysis of compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2024)-01-0019

Abstract

Abstract:

The compound drought and heat wave has been paid more and more attention and the combined effect is far more than ordinary drought events. The characteristic of the events was explored in Central Asia from 1981 to 2020, based on hourly temperature data and monthly potential evapotranspiration data of the Land Component of the Fifth Generation of European Reanalysis (ERA5-Land) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and daily multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation data. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and daily maximum temperature were calculated to identify the events. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The spatial distribution of compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia was not concentrated. The regions with high frequency of the events in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s were mainly distributed in the southeast, north, northwest and west, respectively. (2) In terms of temporal distribution, the general trend of the events had changed from large fluctuation to small fluctuation, and likely to remain stable after 2020. (3) Studying the four typical years of 1984, 1993, 2010 and 2020, it is concluded that the compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia were mainly concentrated in the southeast in 1984, sporadic occurrences in a few scattered regions in 1993，in the north in 2010 and in the west in 2020.

Key words: compound droughts and heat waves, Central Asia, spatiotemporal analysis, SPEI

摘要：

由于复合高温干旱事件造成的综合效应远超普通干旱事件，复合高温干旱日益受到人们关注。基于中亚地区1981—2020年欧洲中期天气预报中心的第五代再分析陆地产品（Land Component of the Fifth Generation of European Reanalysis，ERA5-Land）的逐小时温度数据、月尺度潜在蒸散量数据和日尺度多源集成降水产品，计算标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index，SPEI）和日最高温度，识别复合高温干旱事件并分析其特征，得到以下结论：（1）复合高温干旱事件在中亚各地区空间分布上呈非集中趋势，1980年代、1990年代、2000年代和2010年代发生频次较高的区域分别位于东南部、北部、西北部和西部；（2）这些事件的时间分布表现出由大波动变为平稳小波动的趋势，且2020年之后将维持此平稳状态；（3）分析1984、1993、2010、2020年4个复合高温干旱事件典型年份，发现1984年高温干旱主要集中在中亚东南部，1993年仅零星地区偶发，2010年北部多发复合高温干旱事件，2020年则集中于西部地区。

关键词: 复合高温干旱, 中亚, 时空分析, 标准化降水蒸散指数

CLC Number:

P426.616

YANG Yingjie, CAO Qian, SHUI Yue. Identification and characteristic analysis of compound drought and heat wave event in Central Asia[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(1): 19-26.

杨英杰, 曹倩, 税玥. 中亚复合高温干旱事件识别与特征分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(1): 19-26.

Figures/Tables 6

Fig.1 The study area in Central Asian

Fig.2 Frequency of compound drought and heat wave events in Central Asia from 1981 to 2020

Fig.3 Spatial distribution of frequency of compound drought and heat wave events in Central Asia during 1981-1990 (a)、1991-2000 (b)、2001-2010 (c) and 2011-2020 (d)

Fig.4 The variation of SPEI in typical years in Central Asia

Fig.5 The variation of Tmax in typical years in Central Asia

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of frequency of compound drought and heat wave events in Central Asia in 1984 (a), 1993 (b), 2010 (c) and 2020 (d)

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