Abstract:

Based on the monthly data of air temperature from 27 weather stations in Northeast China, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and AO index from NOAA, the variation of air temperature in winter of Northeast China was investigated by using EOF analysis and correlation analysis in the recent 53 years. The results are as follows: (1) The first EOF modes in both early and late winter presented a regional consistent variation, and the second EOF modes in both early and late winter depicted a seesaw pattern with a positive (negative) anomaly in the northeast and a negative (positive) anomaly in the southwest of Northeast China, and in fact,  the seesaw pattern was in the majority. (2) It was found that there was a positive correlation between the seesaw pattern of air temperature in early winter and Arctic Oscillation-like teleconnection pattern. (3) There was a significant positive correlation between the Arctic Oscillation in November and the seesaw pattern of temperature anomalies in early winter. As the Arctic Oscillation in November was positive (negative), the warm (cold) anomaly occurred in the northeast, and the cold (warm) anomaly occurred in the southwest of Northeast China. Hence, the Arctic Oscillation in November may serve as one of predictors for temperature prediction in Northeast China.

Key words: air temperature anomaly, winter, Northeast China, Arctic Oscillation (AO)

摘要：

利用东北地区27个站逐月温度资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA提供的AO资料，通过EOF和相关分析方法，研究东北地区近53 a冬季气温变化特征。结果表明：（1）东北地区前冬和后冬气温的前2个模态在空间上均表现为全区变化一致型和东北—西南反相变化的跷跷板型，且实际分布以跷跷板型居多；（2）前冬气温跷跷板型分布与同期位置偏北、强度较弱的类AO分布型呈正相关关系；（3）11月AO与前冬气温跷跷板分布呈显著正相关关系，当11月AO为正值时，前冬呈东北高、西南低的气温分布型，AO为负值时，则出现西南高、东北低的气温分布型。因此11月AO可作为东北冬季气温的一个预测因子。

关键词: 东北冬季气温, 前冬, 后冬, 北极涛动