J4 ›› 2010, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 411-417.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

近50 a金昌市气候逐渐转入相对暖湿分析

 滕水昌1, 赵明瑞2, 翟诚3, 殷玉春4, 王生元1   

  1. (1.甘肃省永昌县气象局,甘肃永昌737200;2.甘肃省民勤县气象局,甘肃民勤733300;3.甘肃省金昌市气象局,甘肃金昌737100;4.甘肃省武威市气象台,甘肃武威733000)
  • 收稿日期:2010-03-02 修回日期:2010-09-25 出版日期:2010-12-31 发布日期:2010-12-31
  • 作者简介:滕水昌(1966-),男,甘肃武威人,工程师,主要从事天气预报分析研究.E-mail:yctsc@126.com

Climate Analysis in Recent 50 Years in Jinchang of Gansu Province

TENG Shuichan1,ZHAO Min}ruiz2,ZHAI Chen3,YIN Yuchun4,WANG Shenyuan1   

  1. (1.Yongchang Meteorological Station of Gansu Province,Yongchang 737200,China;2.Minqin Meteorological Station of Gansu Province,Minqin 733000,China;3.Jinchang Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Jinchang 737100,China;4.Wuwei Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Wuwei 733000,China)
  • Received:2010-03-02 Revised:2010-09-25 Online:2010-12-31 Published:2010-12-31

摘要:

利用线性、多项式回归法对金昌市永昌县气象观测站(1959~2009年)月、季、年平均气温序列、降水量进行连续性变化趋势分析,确定该区域的气温、降水、干燥度变化趋势。应用Mann-Kendall法,滑动T-检验法和Yamamoto法检验气温序列变化的不连续性,确定突变的时间。结果表明:永昌县平均气温均呈升温趋势,进入1990年代至今气温持续走高,突变发生在1996年。50 a的年降水也呈波动上升趋势,从1983年以来降水呈相对增加态势,1992~2009年降水量比气候平均值年均多20.6 mm,增幅相对较大,降水量序列突变时间是1984年。50 a中86%的年份气候处于半干旱状态,而且具有准3 a的波动周期,1960年代和1990年代初气候较干旱,历史上最干旱年份出现在这一时期,1970~1978年、1992~2009年气候相对湿润,1998年至今无霜期明显延长,气候有逐渐转入相对暖湿的趋势特点。

关键词: 年平均气温, 年降水量, 干燥度, 无霜期, 变化特征

Abstract:

The monthly,seasonal and annual average temperature series,precipitation in Yongchang during 1959-2009 was analyzed using linear and polynomial regression methods.The results show that the average temperature presented increasing trend,the abrupt change occurred in 1996 for temperature.The annual precipitation also showed increase trend since 1983,and during 1992-2009 annual precipitation was 20.6 mm more than climate average value,and abrupt change occurred in 1984 for precipitation.In the 1960s and the early of 1990s,it was relatively dry,the driest year in history occurred in this period,and during 1970-1978,1992-2009 it was relatively humid,the frost-free period prolonged since 1998,and it was gradually moving to the relatively warm and humid period.

Key words: annual average temperature, annual rainfall, dryness, frost-free period, variation

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