山东省6月区域性持续高温过程的变化特征及成因分析

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2025-04-0510

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究区域性持续高温过程的变化特征及其发生机理，有利于提取预测指标，为短期气候预测提供参考。本文基于1979—2023年山东省122个国家气象观测站的6月日最高气温资料，结合区域高温过程的变化特征，构建了山东省6月区域持续高温指数（Regional Persistent High-temperature events，RPH）。进一步利用ERA5逐年6月再分析资料，并以北大西洋海温异常为切入点，分析RPH与同期大气环流和海温等背景场之间的关系。结果表明：山东省6月区域性高温过程具有明显的年际变化特征和线性上升趋势，2000年以后区域高温过程明显增多且强度增强；典型区域高温强年期间，500 hPa位势高度距平场在中高纬呈现“+-+-”型波列结构，850 hPa温度距平场呈现与之对应的“+-+-”冷暖中心分布；北大西洋“+-+”三极型海温异常（North Atlantic Tripole，NAT）与RPH显著正相关，NAT负位相所激发的欧亚遥相关波列与区域高温强年中高纬“+-+-”波列结构密切相关；NAT负位相可激发大气低层向高层的能量上输并向外辐散，其波作用通量沿偏北路径东传至山东上空，造成山东上空能量辐合，有利于正距平高度场维持，此背景下山东上空受下沉运动控制，促进区域高温过程发展。

关键词: 区域持续高温过程, 海温异常, 北大西洋

Abstract:

It is of great significance to investigate the characteristics and underlying mechanisms of regional persistent high-temperature processes, as this can help to extract predictive indicators and provide theoretical references for short-term climate forecasting. Based on daily maximum temperature data from 122 national meteorological stations in Shandong Province in June from 1979 to 2023, a regional persistent high-temperature index (RPH) is constructed to reflect the changing characteristics of persistent high-temperature processes in June. Furthermore, ERA5 reanalysis data for June over the same period are used to analyze the relationship between RPH and large-scale background fields, including atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST), with a particular focus on North Atlantic SST anomalies. The main results are as follows: The regional persistent high-temperature processes in Shandong in June exhibit significant interannual variability and a linear upward trend, with both frequency and intensity increasing notably after 2000. In typical strong RPH years, a pronounced “+-+-” wave train pattern appears at the 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly field over the mid-high latitudes, accompanied by a corresponding “+-+-” pattern at the 850 hPa temperature anomaly field. There is a significant positive correlation between the North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) SST anomaly pattern and the June RPH. The Eurasian wave train excited by the negative phase of NAT closely resembles the pattern observed during typical strong high-temperature years. During NAT negative-phase years, upward energy propagation from the lower to upper troposphere and eastward wave activity fluxes result in significant energy convergence over Shandong. This supports the maintenance of a positive geopotential height anomaly. Under such conditions, enhanced subsidence and adiabatic warming, along with increased solar radiation due to reduced cloud cover, facilitate the development of persistent high-temperature processes.

Key words: regional persistent high-temperature process, sea surface temperature anomaly, North Atlantic

中图分类号:

P461.2

陈君芝, 伯忠凯, 徐玮平, 孟祥新, 曹洁. 山东省6月区域性持续高温过程的变化特征及成因分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2025, 43(4): 510-520.

CHEN Junzhi, BO Zhongkai, XU Weiping, MENG Xiangxin, CAO Jie. Characteristics and mechanisms of regional persistent high-temperature processes in June in Shandong[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2025, 43(4): 510-520.

图/表 12

图1 山东省地形高度（单位：m）与122个国家气象观测站分布

Fig.1 Terrain of Shandong Province （Unit： m） and distribution of 122 national meteorological observation stations

表1 区域性持续高温过程强度等级划分

Tab.1 Classification of intensity levels for regional persistent high temperature processes

区域性高温事件强度等级划分	指标
特强	1≤R_I<2
强	2≤R_I<3
中等	3≤R_I<4
弱	R_I≥4

表2 单站高温综合强度等级划分

Tab.2 Classification of intensity levels for single station high temperature

G_k	S_I百分位取值区间
1	≥95%
2	[85%，95%）
3	[60%，85%）
4	<60%
5	无高温

图2 1979—2023年山东省6月区域高温过程年累计频次（a）及累计日数（b）变化

Fig.2 Interannual changes in the cumulative frequency （a） and cumulative days （b） of regional high-temperature processes in June in Shandong Province from 1979 to 2023

图3 山东省1979—2023年不同时段不同等级区域高温过程发生次数变化

Fig.3 Changes in the number of regional high-temperature processes with different classes in Shandong Province in different periods from 1979 to 2023

图4 山东省1979—2023年6月去趋势标准化区域高温指数逐年变化（黑色虚线代表±1个标准差）

Fig.4 The annual variation of the detrended standardized RPH in Shandong Province from 1979 to 2023（The black dashed lines represent ±1 standard deviation）

图5 山东区域高温强年500 hPa高度距平场（a）及850 hPa温度距平场（b）正距平频率（单位：%）（黑色框线内黑色线包围区域为山东省，下同）

Fig.5 The positive anomaly frequency of the 500 hPa height anomaly field (a) and 850 hPa temperature anomaly field (b) synthesized by the regional high temperature strong years in Shandong (Unit:%) (The enclosed by the black line within the black box indicates Shandong Province，the same as below)

图6 1979—2023年山东6月区域持续高温指数与海温距平场相关系数的空间分布（黑色圆点表示达到95%置信水平）

Fig.6 The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between sea surface temperature anomaly and RPH in Shandong during 1979-2023 （The black dots indicate reaching the 95% confidence level）

图7 1979—2023年6月海温EOF分解的第一（a、b）、第二（c、d）模态（a、c）及标准化时间系数（b、d）

Fig.7 The first (a, b) and second (c, d) EOF modes (a, c) of sea surface temperature in June with their standardized time coefficients (b, d) during 1979-2023

图8 1979—2023年6月海温EOF第一模态标准化时间系数及RPH随时间的变化

Fig.8 Time series of the standardized time coefficient of the first EOF mode of sea surface temperature in June and RPH from 1979 to 2023

图9 NAT负位相典型年200 hPa TN波作用通量的水平分量（箭矢，单位：m2·s-2）及其散度（填色，单位：m·s-2）（a）以及500 hPa TN波作用通量的垂直分量[b，单位：（hPa）2·s?1]的合成（黑色方框为关键区，红色箭头为TN波作用通量传播路径）

Fig.9 Composite of the TNX of the 200 hPa (arrow vectors, Unit: m2·s-2) and its divergence (the color shaded, Unit: m·s-2) (a) and the TNz of the 500 hPa (b, Unit: (hPa)2·s?1) during typical NAT negative-phase years (The black box is the critical zone, the red arrows indicate propagation pathways of TN wave activity flux)

图10 NAT负位相典型年500 hPa高度距平场（a）及850 hPa温度距平场（b）正距平频率（单位：%）

Fig.10 The positive anomaly frequency of the 500 hPa height anomaly field (a) and the 850 hPa temperature anomaly field (b) synthesized by the typical years of NAT-negative phase (Unit: %)

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