ROSE2.1短时强降水自动报警产品在宁夏北部的适用性评估

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2025-03-0469

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提升雷达在短临天气预报业务中对强对流天气的监测预警效能，本文利用银川C波段雷达数据及气象自动站降水资料，系统分析了2018—2022年宁夏北部地区短时强降水时空分布特征，并基于ROSE2.1雷达系统，对短时强降水自动报警产品（User Alarm Information，简称“UAM产品”）参数阈值（R）进行修正优化，通过检验评估不同参数下UAM产品准确率等关键指标，最终构建适用于本地的参数体系。结果表明：宁夏北部短时强降水以贺兰山主峰东麓最多，次峰次之，短时强降水强度最强的区域集中在次峰。银川市短时强降水多发于西夏区、贺兰县和灵武市，石嘴山市多发于平罗县、惠农区，但极端性相对银川市较差。参数评估表明，银川市雷达距离<50 km、小时雨量为20~<50 mm及石嘴山市雷达距离50~100 km、小时雨量为20~<50 mm的场景下，R11参数命中率超70%，且综合评分最优。基于该参数优化的UAM产品在报警落区、时间提前量和准确率等方面均有提升，但对于范围较广、强度较强的短时强降水过程，存在报警强度虚高、虚警率偏高等问题，需进一步改进完善。

关键词: 短时强降水, ROSE2.1系统, 自动报警产品, 适用性

Abstract:

To enhance the radar monitoring and early warning efficacy for severe convective weather in nowcasting operations, this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of short-duration heavy precipitation in northern Ningxia from 2018 to 2022, by using Yinchuan C-band radar data and precipitation data from meteorological automatic stations. Based on the ROSE2.1 radar system, the parameter threshold R of the automatic alarm product for short-duration heavy precipitation (UAM product) was revised and optimized. By evaluating key indicators such as the accuracy rate of the UAM product under different parameters, a locally applicable parameter framework was ultimately established. The results show that short-duration heavy precipitation in northern Ningxia occurs most frequently on the eastern foothills of the main peak of the Helan Mountain, followed by the secondary peak. The area with the strongest short-duration heavy precipitation intensity is concentrated around the secondary peak. In Yinchuan City, short-duration heavy precipitation frequently occurs in Xixia District, Helan County, and Lingwu City, while in Shizuishan City, it is more common in Pingluo County and Huinong District, though with relatively lower extremity compared to Yinchuan. Parameter evaluation shows that in scenarios where the radar distance is less than 50 km and the hourly rainfall is greater than or equal to 20 mm and less than 50 mm in Yinchuan City, and where the radar distance is greater than or equal to 50 km and less than or equal to100 km and the hourly rainfall is greater than or equal to 20 mm and less than 50 mm in Shizuishan City, the hit rate of parameter R11 exceeded 70%, with the best comprehensive score. The UAM product optimized with these parameters shows improvements in alarm location, lead time, and overall accuracy rate, but for widespread and intense short-duration heavy precipitation events, it exhibits issues of overestimation of alarm intensity and high false alarm rate, which require further improvement.

Key words: short-duration heavy precipitation, ROSE2.1 system, automatic alarm product, applicability

中图分类号:

程瑶, 赵腾, 杨苑媛. ROSE2.1短时强降水自动报警产品在宁夏北部的适用性评估[J]. 干旱气象, 2025, 43(3): 469-478.

CHENG Yao, ZHAO Teng, YANG Yuanyuan. Applicability assessment of ROSE2.1 short-duration heavy precipitation automatic alarm product in northern Ningxia[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2025, 43(3): 469-478.

图/表 9

表1 2018—2022年银川市、石嘴山市各辖行政区不同级别短时强降水发生频次

Tab.1 Frequency of short-duration heavy precipitation with different levels in administrative regions of Yinchuan and Shizuishan City from 2018 to 2022 单位：次

小时雨量/mm	银川市							石嘴山市
小时雨量/mm	兴庆区	金凤区	西夏区	贺兰县	永宁县	灵武市	总计	大武口区	惠农区	平罗县	总计
20~<50	60	31	122	84	46	68	411	33	72	106	211
50~<70	2	1	9	2	0	4	18	2	0	3	5
≥70	1	0	2	1	0	3	7	0	1	0	1

图1 2018—2022年宁夏北部地区短时强降水的强度（a，单位：mm·h-1）及发生频次（b，单位：次）空间分布

Fig.1 The spatial distribution of intensity (a, Unit: mm·h-1) and occurrence frequency (b, Unit: times) of short-duration heavy precipitation in northern Ningxia from 2018 to 2022

图2 2018—2022年基于不同雨强、不同雷达距离组合的银川市UAM产品评估结果

Fig.2 Evaluation results of UAM products in Yinchuan City based on different combinations of rainfall intensity and radar distance from 2018 to 2022

图3 2018—2022年基于不同雨强、不同雷达距离组合的石嘴山市UAM产品评估结果

Fig.3 Evaluation results of UAM products in Shizuishan City based on different combinations of rainfall intensity and radar distance from 2018 to 2022

表2 宁夏北部短时强降水的不同雨强、不同雷达距离组合的UAM参数阈值推荐

Tab.2 Recommended threshold of UAM parameters of different rainfall intensity and different radar distance combinations for short-duration heavy precipitation in northern Ningxia

区域	雨强20~<50 mm·h^-1			雨强≥50 mm·h^-1
区域	雷达距离<50 km	雷达距离50~100 km	雷达距离>100 km	雷达距离<50 km	雷达距离50~100 km
银川市	R11*	R10~R20		R20	R10~R20
石嘴山市	R20	R11*	R10~R20		R19~R20
宁夏北部	R11	R11	R10~R20	R20	R20

表3 2023年不同雷达距离分级下宁夏北部地区短时强降水UAM产品评估结果

Tab.3 Evaluation results of UAM products for short-duration heavy precipitation in northern Ningxia in 2023 under different radar range classification

雷达距离分级	参数	累计命中/个	累计漏报/个	累计虚警/个	平均命中率/%	平均虚警率/%	平均漏报率/%	平均临界成功指数
所有范围（50次个例）	R11	40	9	39	42.86	20.00	49.54	0.36
	R15	30	18	20	29.03	51.61	30.28	0.25
	R20	17	27	6	14.53	73.93	19.23	0.15
<50 km （37次个例）	R11	29	8	10	57.14	42.86	20.61	0.51
	R15	22	13	7	31.25	68.75	17.00	0.27
	R20	15	16	1	12.70	87.30	7.14	0.13
50~100 km （13次个例）	R11	10	1	16	50.00	7.14	53.23	0.40
	R15	8	5	6	33.33	41.67	30.56	0.28
	R20	2	12	2	18.18	72.73	18.18	0.18

表4 2023年宁夏北部地区短时强降水UAM产品个例时间提前量及初始强度评估

Tab.4 Assessment of time lead and initial intensity of short-duration heavy precipitation UAM products cases in northern Ningxia in 2023

统计量	时间提前量/min			强度较实况变率/%
统计量	R11	R15	R20	R11	R15	R20
范围	-11~73	-12~68	-8~56	-41~398	0~398	46~501
均值	34	30	27	58.6	84.9	206.5

图4 2023年8月10日宁夏北部地区短时强降水实况及银川雷达产品分布（绿色圆圈包围区域表示短时强降水发生区域，红色阴影表示系统触发报警区域，下同）

Fig.4 Spaial distribution of observed short-duration heavy precipitation and corresponding Yinchuan radar products in northern Ningxia on 10 August 2023 (Green-circled areas indicate short-duration heavy precipitation occurrences, the red shaded regions represent system-activated alert zones, the same as below)

图5 2023年9月14日宁夏北部地区短时强降水实况及银川雷达产品分布

Fig.5 Spaial distribution of observed short-duration heavy precipitation and corresponding Yinchuan radar products in northern Ningxia on 14 September 2023

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