2021年京津冀秋季降水10~20 d低频振荡特征

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2024)-01-0054

干旱气象 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 54-63.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2024)-01-0054

2021年京津冀秋季降水10~20 d低频振荡特征

韩世茹¹^,²^,³(), 车少静¹^,²^,³(), 于长文³, 马贵东³

1.中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室，河北保定 071800
2.河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室，河北石家庄 050021
3.河北省气候中心，河北石家庄 050021

收稿日期:2023-06-28 修回日期:2023-11-22 出版日期:2024-02-29 发布日期:2024-03-06
通讯作者: 车少静（1976—），女，硕士，正高级工程师，主要从事短期气候预、农业气象研究。E-mail: checlimate@sina.com。
作者简介:韩世茹（1990—），女，硕士，工程师，主要从事短期气候预测及相关工作。E-mail: hanshiru615@163.com。
基金资助:
中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-015);河北省气象局科研开发项目(21ky02);河北省气象局创新团队-延伸期重要天气过程智能预测技术创新团队共同资助

Characteristics of 10-20 days low-frequency oscillation of autumn precipitation over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021

HAN Shiru¹^,²^,³(), CHE Shaojing¹^,²^,³(), YU Changwen³, MA Guidong³

1. China Meteorological Administration Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory，Baoding 071800，Hebei，China
2. Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China
3. Hebei Climate Center，Shijiazhuang 050021，China

Received:2023-06-28 Revised:2023-11-22 Online:2024-02-29 Published:2024-03-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究京津冀地区的降水异常特征对提高秋季延伸期降水的认识和预测能力具有重要作用。近年来京津冀地区“夏雨秋下”现象频繁发生，表现出秋季降水强度增强、极端降水增多特征。2021年京津冀地区秋季降水为1981年以来最多的一年，10月降水量多站突破历史极值。利用京津冀地区秋季逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，采用Morlet小波分析和Lanczos滤波等方法，对京津冀地区2021年秋季降水的低频振荡周期与大气低频环流特征演变进行分析以探究其异常特征。结果表明，2021年京津冀地区秋季降水的主要低频振荡周期为10~20 d，低频振荡方差达44%。低频降水活跃期500 hPa大气低频环流表现为低压异常前存在辐合运动，有利于低层异常气旋发展加强和上升运动加强；低频降水活跃期850 hPa有异常气旋自南向北移动至京津冀上空，有利于南方暖湿气流向京津冀地区输送。水汽输送强度会影响降水过程的强度，水汽输送强度越强，降水强度越大。

关键词: 京津冀地区, 低频振荡, 异常降水, 秋季

Abstract:

It is important to study the characteristics of precipitation anomaly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to improve the understanding and prediction ability of precipitation in the autumn extended period. In recent years, the phenomenon of “summer rain in autumn” has occurred frequently in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, showing the characteristics of precipitation intensity increase and more extreme precipitation in autumn. The autumn precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 was the most since 1981, and the precipitation at many stations in October of 2021 broke the historical extreme values. Based on daily precipitation data in autumn and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Morlet wavelet analysis and Lanczos filtering methods were used to analyze the low-frequency oscillation period of autumn precipitation and the evolution of atmospheric low-frequency circulation characteristics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 in order to explore its abnormal characteristics. The results show that the main low-frequency oscillation period of autumn precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 is 10-20 days, and the variance of low-frequency oscillation is 44%. The low frequency circulation at 500 hPa during the low frequency precipitation activity period shows that there is convergence movement before the low-pressure anomaly, which is conducive to the strengthening of the low-level anomaly cyclone and upward movement. During the low frequency precipitation activity period, an abnormal cyclone moves northward from the South China Sea to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which was conducive to the transport of warm and humid air from the south to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The intensity of water vapor transport will affect the intensity of precipitation process. The stronger the intensity of water vapor transport is, the greater the intensity of precipitation is.

Key words: the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, low-frequency oscillation, abnormal precipitation, autumn

中图分类号:

P426.6

韩世茹, 车少静, 于长文, 马贵东. 2021年京津冀秋季降水10~20 d低频振荡特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(1): 54-63.

HAN Shiru, CHE Shaojing, YU Changwen, MA Guidong. Characteristics of 10-20 days low-frequency oscillation of autumn precipitation over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(1): 54-63.

图/表 8

图1 1981—2021年京津冀地区秋季降水量时间序列

Fig.1 Time series of autumn precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1981 to 2021

图2 2021年京津冀地区秋季逐日降水量序列

Fig.2 Time series of daily precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in autumn of 2021

图3 2021年京津冀地区秋季降水量Morlet小波分析（阴影为通过90%置信水平检验的区域）

Fig.3 Morlet wavelet analysis of autumn precipitation in 2021 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region （Shadows are regions that pass the 90% confidence level test）

图4 经10~20 d低频滤波后的2021年秋季京津冀地区逐日降水量序列

Fig.4 Daily precipitation after 10~20 days filtering in autumn of 2021 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

图5 不同位相500 hPa位势高度异常（等值线，单位：dagpm）和散度异常（阴影，单位：10-6s-1）分布（“H”表示高压，“L”表示低压；方框为京津冀地区所在位置，下同）

Fig.5 The distribution of geopotential height field anomaly (contours, Unit: dagpm) and divergency anomaly (the shaded, Unit: 10-6s-1) at 500 hPa in different phases (The “H” is for high pressure, and the “L” is for low pressure, the box shows the location of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the same as below)

图6 不同位相850 hPa风场异常（箭矢，单位：m·s-1）与700 hPa垂直速度异常（阴影，单位：Pa·s-1）分布（“A”和“C”分别表示异常反气旋和异常气旋）

Fig.6 The distribution of wind field anomaly (arrow vectors, Unit: m·s-1) at 850 hPa and vertical velocity anomaly (the shaded, Unit: Pa·s-1) at 700 hPa in different phases (The “A” and “C” are for abnormal anticyclone and abnormal cyclone, respectively)

图7 整层积分低频水汽通量异常（等值线，单位：kg·m-1·s-1）及水汽通量散度异常（阴影，单位：10-5 kg·m-2·s-1）沿32.5°N—45°N平均的时间-经度剖面（箭头表示各次降水过程，下同）

Fig.7 The time-longitude profile of averaged low-frequency water vapor flux anomaly（isolines，Unit： kg·m-1·s-1） and water vapor flux divergence anomaly（the shaded，Unit： 10-5 kg·m-2·s-1） integrated of the whole layer along 32.5°N-45.0°N （The arrows represent each precipitation process，the same as below）

图8 整层积分低频水汽通量（等值线，单位：kg·m-1·s-1）及水汽通量散度（阴影，单位：10-5 kg·m-2·s-1）沿110°E—120°E平均的时间-纬度剖面

Fig.8 The time-latitude profile of averaged low-frequency water vapor flux anomaly（isolines，Unit： kg·m-1·s-1） and water vapor flux divergence anomaly（the shaded，Unit： 10-5 kg·m-2·s-1） integrated of the whole layer along 110°E-120°E

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2021年京津冀秋季降水10~20 d低频振荡特征

Characteristics of 10-20 days low-frequency oscillation of autumn precipitation over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021

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