基于逐日SPEI-30的黄土高原干旱演变特征及其驱动因素

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-04-0540

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱是黄土高原最主要的自然灾害之一，其时空演变对区域生态系统稳定、农业生产安全及黄河流域高质量发展具有关键影响。基于黄土高原218个气象站点1961—2020年逐日观测数据，利用Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物蒸散发（Reference Crop Evapotranspiration，ET₀），结合降水量构建水分盈亏序列，计算30 d滑动累积的逐日标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI-30），分析黄土高原近60 a干旱持续日数、频次及不同等级干旱的时空分布与变化趋势，引入随机森林回归模型量化各气象要素对干旱演变的相对贡献。结果表明：逐日SPEI-30能有效识别干旱发生和持续状态，适用于表征30 d尺度的短期干旱演变特征，可较好地反映黄土高原干旱的动态变化过程。黄土高原干旱持续日数及发生频次存在显著年代际波动与季节差异：1961—1980年与2001—2020年干旱持续日数整体偏长；1981—2000年干旱持续日数相对偏短；春、冬季干旱持续日数与频次呈下降趋势，夏、秋季则均呈上升趋势。影响干旱持续日数变化的气象要素存在显著季节分异特征：春、秋季干旱以降水量为主导驱动因素，贡献率分别为43%、42%；夏、冬季干旱则由ET₀主导，贡献率分别为36%、30%。

关键词: 黄土高原, 逐日SPEI-30, 季节变化, 驱动因素

Abstract:

Drought is one of the most prominent natural disasters in the Loess Plateau. Its spatiotemporal evolution has direct effects on the stability of regional ecosystems, the security of agricultural production, and the high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. Based on the daily observed meteorological data of 218 stations from 1961 to 2020, the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) was firstly calculated with the Penman-Monteith formula. Then, the daily water balance sequence was calculated based on daily precipitation and ET₀. Lastly, this study calculated the 30-day sliding cumulative daily standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI-30). Based on SPEI-30, this study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of droughts’ lasting days, droughts’ frequency, and the serious levels of droughts in the Loess Plateau in the last 60 years. This study also adopted random forest regression models to quantify the relative contributions of meteorological factors to the evolution of drought. The results show that the daily SPEI-30 can effectively identify the occurrence and lasting days of drought, catch droughts’ fluctuation at the 30-day scale, and reflect the dynamic evolution process of drought in the Loess Plateau. There were significant interdecadal fluctuations and seasonal differences on droughts’ lasting days and its frequency. In specific, droughts’ lasting days were relative more from 1961 to 1980 and from 2001 to 2020, but less from 1981 to 2000. The lasting days and frequency of drought in spring and winter showed a downward trend but an upward trend in summer and autumn. The effects of meteorological factors on the variation of the duration of drought were different among seasons. Precipitation was the dominated factor for spring and autumn droughts (contributions reaching 43% and 42%, respectively). Summer and winter droughts were dominated by ET₀ (contributions of 36% and 30%, respectively). In summary, the spatiotemporal evolution of drought showed significant seasonal differences in the Loess Plateau, and meteorological factors were the main factors affecting the duration of regional drought.

Key words: Loess Plateau, daily SPEI-30, seasonal variation, driving factors

中图分类号:

P467

刘旺旺, 刘丹, 张瑾彤, 李淑萍, 史利洁. 基于逐日SPEI-30的黄土高原干旱演变特征及其驱动因素[J]. 干旱气象, 2026, 44(4): 540-553.

LIU Wangwang, LIU Dan, ZHANG Jintong, LI Shuping, SHI Lijie. Drought evolution characteristics and driving factors on the Loess Plateau based on daily SPEI-30[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2026, 44(4): 540-553.

图/表 11

图1 黄土高原地形及气象观测站点分布

Fig.1 Topography of the Loess Plateau and distribution of meteorological observation stations

表1 1961—2020年黄土高原各省（区）气象站点数及各气象要素多年年均值

Tab.1 Number of meteorological stations and annual averages of various meteorological elements in each province （region） of the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2020

省（区）	站点个数/个	日最高气温/℃	日最低气温/℃	日平均气温/℃	日照时数/h	风速/ （m·s^-1）	相对湿度/%	降水量/mm	ET₀/mm
青海	8	15.8	0.9	7.6	7.8	1.4	51.1	257.0	1 125.7
甘肃	36	14.8	3.1	8.2	6.5	1.4	64.4	465.1	1 085.4
宁夏	21	15.3	2.5	8.3	7.7	1.9	55.1	280.9	1 262.3
内蒙古	21	14.4	1.3	7.5	8.3	1.9	50.3	291.1	1 280.6
陕西	49	17.2	5.7	10.8	6.4	1.5	63.5	538.9	1 161.3
山西	72	16.3	3.6	9.4	6.9	1.7	58.7	492.6	1 183.5
河南	11	20.1	9.4	14.3	5.7	1.6	64.2	596.9	1 237.7

图2 1961—2020年黄土高原各气象要素变化趋势空间分布

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of the changing trends of various meteorological elements on the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2020

图3 黄土高原8个代表站典型干旱事件中SPEI-30日变化

Fig. 3 The daily variations of SPEI-30 in typical drought events at 8 representative sites on the Loess Plateau

表2 黄土高原8个代表站典型干旱事件史料记载与SPEI-30对比

Tab.2 Comparison between historical records of typical drought events and SPEI-30 at eight representative stations on the Loess Plateau

站点	省（区）	地理位置及地貌	干旱事件时间范围	《中国气象灾害大典》记录	SPEI-30 均值	干旱持续日数/d	干旱持续日数识别率/%
白银	甘肃	黄土高原西北缘	1989年5月下旬—8月下旬	白银市春季末至夏季末旱情严重，作物产量影响较大	-0.51	62	70.62
三门峡	河南	豫西黄土丘陵区	1990年7—10月	三门峡7—8月伏旱严重，9—10月严重干旱	-0.73	96	78.04
东胜	内蒙古	鄂尔多斯高原	1974年3月上旬—6月下旬	东胜春初至夏初出现干旱	-1.04	110	90.16
固原	宁夏	宁南黄土丘陵区	1993年5月下旬—7月上旬	固原春季末至夏季中期发生干旱，持续超50 d	-0.71	53	84.12
民和	青海	东部黄土高原边缘区	1980年4月下旬—6月中旬	海东地区民和县春季大旱	-1.26	86	95.56
祁县	山西	晋中黄土高原区	1995年6月上旬—7月下旬	祁县出现严重夏伏期干旱	-0.79	52	85.25
洛川	陕西	陕北南部黄土塬区	1998年9月下旬—11月下旬	洛川发生严重干旱，秋作物受旱严重	-1.16	64	88.89
榆林	陕西	陕北黄土丘陵区	1981年4月下旬—6月中旬	榆林出现春末夏初干旱，夏播遇到严重困难	-0.78	41	74.54

图4 黄土高原不同时段不同季节干旱持续日数多年平均空间分布（单位：d）

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of multi-year average drought duration for different periods and seasons over the Loess Plateau （Unit： d）

图5 1961—2020年黄土高原不同季节平均每次干旱事件中不同等级干旱持续日数的年际变化

Fig.5 The interannual variations of average drought duration per drought event for different drought grades in different seasons over the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2020

图6 黄土高原不同时段不同季节干旱频次多年平均空间分布（单位：次）

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of multi-year average drought frequencies for different periods and seasons over the Loess Plateau （Unit： times）

图7 1961—2020年黄土高原不同季节干旱持续日数变化趋势空间分布（单位：d·a-1）

Fig.7 Spatial distribution of the trends in drought duration for different seasons over the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2020 （Unit：d·a-1）

图8 随机森林回归模型模拟黄土高原不同季节干旱持续日数与站点观测值的散点图

Fig.8 Scatter plots between simulated drought duration by random forest regression model and station observed values for different seasons over the Loess Plateau

图9 各气象要素对黄土高原不同季节干旱持续日数预测的相对贡献率

Fig.9 Relative contributions of various meteorological elements to the prediction of drought duration in different seasons over the LoessPlateau

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