关键词: 农业干旱, 气候变化, 黄淮海地区, 成本效益

Abstract:

This paper took winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai region as the research object, where agricultural droughts occur frequently with warming climate and increasing evaporation, and defined the water shortage index (k) to classify drought year types based on the data from 1981 to 2020. Taking three stations in Henan Province as examples, this paper used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model to analyze the cost-benefit of drought resistance under different drought year types, in order to provide a reference for improving agricultural output value and agricultural insurance business. The results show that during the study period, the three stations were easy to experience water stress with varying degrees during the growth period of winter wheat, and the drought that occurred in the middle to late stages of the growing season (from early April to harvest) had the greatest impact on yield formation. In order to ensure the safety of national food, agricultural irrigation in the study areas is the main way to keep high yields of winter wheat. According to the cost-benefit analysis, the northern region of Henan Province needs to irrigate 5 times in severe drought years, and irrigate 4 times in general drought years to achieve the maximum benefit. The water conditions in eastern Henan are relatively better than others, with a low probability of severe drought and 3 times irrigation should be needed in general drought years.

Key words: agricultural drought, climate change, the Huang-Huai-Hai region, cost-benefit