湖北省区域性高温、干旱及其复合事件变化特征及危险性评估

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2024-06-0825

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为评估气候变化对农业的潜在影响并科学地制定应对策略，本文基于1994—2023年湖北省76个国家级气象观测站逐日气温、降水等资料，根据区域性高温天气过程等级划分标准及干旱过程监测评估方法，识别和分析了湖北省区域性高温、干旱事件及其复合事件的变化特征和农业致灾危险性。结果表明，湖北省区域性高温事件平均每年发生4.3次，总体呈增加趋势，其中61.2%的特强和强高温事件集中在7—8月；区域性干旱事件平均每年发生1.5次，2010年前呈减少趋势，之后转为增加，冬春季的发生频次略高于夏秋季；区域性高温干旱复合事件多发生在6—8月，2010年后发生频次明显增加。区域性高温和干旱事件的强度及其农业致灾危险性的空间分布基本相似，高温事件的高强度和高危险区主要位于湖北省东部，而低值区位于西南部；干旱事件则以中部偏东区域为高值区，并向周围递减；高温干旱复合事件的致灾危险性从东部向西部递减。区域性高温、干旱及其复合事件分布最广的危险等级区域分别为高危险区、中危险区和极高危险区，其面积分别占湖北省总面积的37.6%、53.8%、46.6%。在全球气候变暖和极端天气事件频发的背景下，湖北省东部区域性极端高温、干旱及其复合事件的发生概率及致灾危险性预计将会增加。

关键词: 区域性高温干旱复合事件, 危险性, 信息扩散方法, 湖北省

Abstract:

In order to assess the potential impact of climate change on agriculture and develop scientific adaptation strategies, the variability characteristics and risk on agriculture of regional high temperature, drought and their compound events in Hubei Province were identified and analyzed based on daily temperature, precipitation and other observations from 76 national meteorological stations during 1994-2023. The analysis employed classification standards for regional high temperature process and monitoring and assessment methods for drought process. The results show that regional high temperature events occurred an average of 4.3 times per year, with an overall increasing trend and 61.2% of severe and strong events occurred in July and August. Regional drought events occurred an average of 1.5 times per year, showing a deceasing trend before 2010 and increasing trend thereafter, with slightly higher frequencies in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. Regional compound high temperature and drought events mainly occurred from June to August, with an significant increase in frequency after 2010. The spatial distribution of intensity and agricultural risk for regional high temperature and drought events was generally similar. High intensity and high risk areas for high temperature events were mainly located in eastern Hubei, while low intensity areas were in the southwest. For drought events, high intensity and high risk areas were mainly located in central-eastern Hubei, decreasing towards surroundings regions. The agricultural risk of compound high temperature and drought events showed a decreasing trend from east to west. The most widely distributed risk levels for regional high temperature, drought and their compound events were classified as high-risk, moderate-risk and extreme high-risk areas, accounting for 37.6%, 53.8% and 46.6% of Hubei Province’s total area, respectively. In the background of global warming and increasing frequency of extreme weather events, the probability and risk of regional extreme high temperature, drought and their compound events are expected to rise in eastern Hubei Province.

Key words: regional compound high temperature and drought events, risk, information diffusion method, Hubei Province

中图分类号:

P466

张玉翠, 谭江红, 闫彩霞. 湖北省区域性高温、干旱及其复合事件变化特征及危险性评估[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(6): 825-835.

ZHANG Yucui, TAN Jianghong, YAN Caixia. Variability characteristics and risk assessment of regional high temperature, drought and their compound events in Hubei Province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(6): 825-835.

图/表 13

图1 湖北省地形及气象站点分布

Fig.1 Topography and distribution of meteorological stations in Hubei Province

表1 各站高温综合强度等级划分

Tab.1 Comprehensive strength grades of high temperature of each station

j	Z_k百分位数取值区间
1	≥95%
2	[85%，95%）
3	[60%，85%）
4	<60%
5	非高温日

表2 区域性高温事件等级

Tab.2 Grades of regional high temperature events

等级	RS
特强	1≤RS<2
强	2≤RS<3
中等	3≤RS<4
弱	RS≥4

表3 基于MCI的气象干旱强度等级

Tab.3 Strength grades of meteorological drought based on MCI

干旱强度等级	MCI
无旱	-0.5<MCI
轻旱	-1.0<MCI≤-0.5
中旱	-1.5<MCI≤-1.0
重旱	-2.0<MCI≤-1.5
特旱	MCI≤-2.0

表4 湖北省区域性干旱事件强度等级

Tab.4 Strength grades of regional drought events in Hubei Province

等级	强度（Z_i）	Z_i百分位数取值区间
特强	Z_i≥16.59	≥95%
强	10.22≤Z_i<16.59	[80%，95%）
中等	6.26≤Z_i<10.22	[50%，80%）
弱	Z_i<6.26	Z_i<50%

图2 湖北省1994—2023年多年平均高温（a）、干旱（b）日数（单位：d）空间分布

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of multi-year average high temperature (a) and drought (b) days (Unit: d) in Hubei Province during 1994-2023

图3 湖北省1994—2023年不同等级平均高温（a）、干旱（b）日数（单位：d）的年际变化

Fig.3 Interannual variation of average high temperature (a) and drought (b) days (Unit: d) with different grades in Hubei Province during 1994-2023

图4 湖北省1994—2023年区域性高温事件频次的年际变化

Fig.4 Interannual variation of occurrence frequency of regional high temperature events in Hubei Province during 1994-2023

图5 湖北省1994—2023年区域性干旱事件频次的年变化

Fig.5 Interannual variation of occurrence frequency of regional drought events in Hubei Province during 1994-2023

图6 湖北省1994—2023年高温年、干旱年、高温干旱复合年时间序列

Fig. 6 Time sequence of high temperature years, drought years and their compound years in Hubei Province during 1994-2023

图7 湖北省1994—2023年区域性高温事件强度（a）和农业致灾危险性（b）空间分布

Fig.7 Spatial distribution of strength （a） and agricultural risk （b） for regional high temperature events in Hubei Province during 1994-2023

图8 湖北省1994—2023年区域性干旱事件强度（a）和农业致灾危险性（b）空间分布

Fig.8 Spatial distribution of strength （a） and agricultural risk （b） for regional drought events in Hubei Province during 1994-2023

图9 湖北省1994—2023年区域性高温干旱复合事件农业致灾危险性空间分布

Fig.9 Spatial distribution of agricultural risk caused by regional compound high temperature and drought events in Hubei Province during 1994-2023

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