有云条件下太阳辐射短临预报订正技术研究

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2021)-06-1006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用2019年甘肃省7个光伏电站太阳总辐射、气温、相对湿度等观测数据和WRF模式太阳总辐射预报产品及FY静止卫星总云量数据,在大气透过率与气象要素相关性分析及数值模式预报能力评估基础上,对甘肃太阳总辐射短临预报误差进行订正研究。结果表明:大气透过率与气温呈显著正相关(相关系数为0.61),而与相对湿度、气压、总云量呈显著负相关(相关系数依次为-0.44、-0.31、-0.81),总云量对太阳辐射的衰减作用贡献最大,其次为相对湿度。太阳辐射预报偏差较大,误差呈明显的“单峰型”月际分布,6月最大,均方根误差在冬季最小为45.63 W·m^-2,夏季最大为240.4 W·m^-2;预报能力在晴天强、云天较差,其误差主要来源于位相偏差和系统偏差。考虑云量的太阳辐射短临预报订正效果显著,阴天太阳辐射预报订正后的均方根误差降幅为101~216.4 W·m^-2,平均绝对误差降幅为59.5~173.07 W·m^-2;误差最大的夏季,太阳辐射预报订正后的均方根误差降幅为1.92~64.23 W·m^-2。

关键词: 太阳辐射, 云量, 短临预报, 辐射订正

Abstract:

Based on observed total solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and air pressure data at representative photovoltaic power stations of Gansu Province, total solar radiation data forecasted by WRF model, and total cloud cover products from FY satellite in 2019, the correlation between total solar radiation and meteorological factors was analyzed, and the prediction ability of WRF model was evaluated, firstly. And on this basis the errors of short-time solar radiation forecast were corrected. The results show that the atmospheric transmissivity was positively correlated with air temperature, and the correlation coefficient was 0.61, while it was negatively correlated with relative humidity, air pressure and total cloud cover, and the correlation coefficients were -0.44, -0.31 and -0.81 in turn. The contribution of total cloud cover to solar radiation attenuation was the most, followed by relative humidity. The deviation of solar radiation forecasted by WRF model was bigger, and the monthly distribution of forecast errors appeared ‘single peak’ pattern, the forecast errors was the biggest in June. The root mean square error (RMSE) of solar radiation forecast was the smallest in winter (45.63 W·m ^-2) and the biggest in summer (240.4 W·m^-2). The forecast ability of WRF model was better on sunny days or partly cloudy days, while it was worse on cloudy days. The forecast errors mainly came from phase bias and system bias. The correction effect of solar radiation forecast considering cloud cover was significant, the RMSE of solar radiation forecast after correction sharply decreased by 101-216.4 W·m^-2 on cloudy days, the average absolute error decreased by 59.5-173.07 W·m^-2, and the RMSE decreased by 1.92-64.23 W·m^-2 in summer with the maximum error.

Key words: solar radiation, cloud cover, short-time forecast, radiation correction

中图分类号:

P456

达选芳, 李照荣, 王小勇, 刘抗, 邸燕君, 闫晓敏. 有云条件下太阳辐射短临预报订正技术研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2021, 39(06): 1006-1016.

DA Xuanfang, LI Zhaorong, WANG Xiaoyong, LIU Kang, DI Yanjun, YAN Xiaomin. Correction technology of short-time solar radiation forecast based on cloud cover[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2021, 39(06): 1006-1016.

图/表 12

表1 WRF模式的物理参数化方案

Tab.1 Physical parameterization schemes of WRF model

参数化方案	WRF模式设置
积云参数化	KF-ETA
长波辐射	RRTM
短波辐射	DUDHIA
陆面过程	NOAH
地表	Monin-Obukhov
微物理过程	WSM6
边界层	ACM2

图1 太阳辐射短临预报订正技术流程

Fig.1 The correction technique flow of short-term solar radiation forecast

图2 甘肃代表性的光伏电站位置分布

Fig.2 Location distribution of representative photovoltaic power stations in Gansu Province

图3 甘肃省2019年夏季07:30—18:30大气透过率与各气象要素的相关系数分布 (a)气温,(b)相对湿度,(c)气压,(d)总云量

Fig.3 The distribution of correlation coefficients between atmospheric transmissivity and meteorological factors from 07:30 BST to 18:30 BST in summer 2019 in Gansu Province (a) temperature, (b) relative humidity, (c) pressure, (d) total cloud cover

表2 HK光伏电站2019年夏季07:30—18:30大气透过率与气象要素的相关系数

Tab.2 Correlation coefficients between atmospheric transmissivity and meteorological factors at HK photovoltaic power station from 07:30 BST to 18:30 BST in summer 2019

时刻	气温	相对湿度	压强	总云量
07:30	0.08^*	-0.27	-0.28	-0.71
08:30	0.56	-0.48	-0.31	-0.74
09:30	0.68	-0.45	-0.27	-0.84
10:30	0.61	-0.32	-0.26	-0.85
11:30	0.68	-0.33	-0.34	-0.81
12:30	0.73	-0.45	-0.40	-0.80
13:30	0.60	-0.45	-0.31	-0.82
14:30	0.65	-0.49	-0.37	-0.86
15:30	0.63	-0.48	-0.25	-0.86
16:30	0.67	-0.51	-0.24	-0.82
17:30	0.70	-0.51	-0.32	-0.79
18:30	0.69	-0.58	-0.32	-0.81
平均值	0.61	-0.44	-0.31	-0.81

图4 2019年HK光伏电站太阳短波辐射预报误差(a)及均方根误差偏差贡献率(b)逐月分布

Fig.4 The monthly distribution of errors (a) and RMSE deviation contribution rates (b) of solar shortwave radiation forecast at HK photovoltaic power station in 2019

图5 甘肃不同光伏电站总云量与地面太阳辐射衰减率的拟合关系 (a)DJHN,(b)HK,(c)SY,(d)MQ

Fig.5 Fitting relationship between total cloud cover and decay rate of surface solar radiation at different photovoltaic power stations of Gansu Province (a) DJHN, (b) HK, (c) SY, (d) MQ

图6 2019年6月4日(a)、5日(b)、6日(c)、27日(d)典型云天下HK(b、c)和SY(a、d)光伏电站地面太阳总辐射预报及订正值与观测对比

Fig.6 The comparison of surface total solar radiation forecast and its correction and the observation on typical cloudy days at HK (b, c) and SY (a, d) photovoltaic power stations of Gansu Province on 4 (a), 5 (b), 6 (c) and 27 (d) June 2019

表3 甘肃不同光伏电站典型云天下地面太阳辐射预报订正前后的误差单位:W·m-2

Tab.3 Errors of surface solar radiation forecast before and after the correction on typical cloudy days at different photovoltaic power stations of Gansu Province

光伏电站	日期	均方根误差		平均绝对误差
光伏电站	日期	订正后	订正前	订正后	订正前
HK	2019-06-05	254.42	355.42	205.76	262.26
	2019-06-06	162.34	373.30	139.14	283.96
SY	2019-06-04	115.64	326.03	82.32	241.92
	2019-06-27	156.18	372.58	140.84	313.90

图7 2019年6月光伏电站逐小时观测、预报及订正的地面太阳辐射(a、c、e、g)和夏季太阳辐射观测值与预报订正值拟合(b、d、f、h) (a、b)HK,(c、d)DJHN,(e、f)SY,(g、h)MQ

Fig.7 The hourly observation and forecast of surface solar radiation and its correction in June 2019 (a, c, e, g) and the fitting between the observed and corrected solar radiation in summer of 2019 (b, d, f, h) at photovoltaic power stations of Gansu Province (a, b) HK, (c, d) DJHN, (e, f) SY, (g, h) MQ

表4 2019年夏季各光伏电站太阳辐射预报值和不同方案订正值的均方根误差对比单位:W·m-2

Tab.4 The comparison of RMSE between solar radiation forecast and its corrected value under different correction schemes at photovoltaic power stations of Gansu Province in summer of 2019

光伏电站	6月					7月					8月
光伏电站	订正前	订正_1 h		订正_2 h		订正前	订正_1 h		订正_2 h		订正前	订正_1 h		订正_2 h
HK	240.44		203.48		228.80	175.37		154.64		164.93	152.56		133.83		145.44
DJHN	247.91		193.57		206.48	156.36		147.10		155.02	146.67		122.98		129.38
SY	258.06		193.83		209.58	171.90		169.98		176.17	174.72		139.32		162.94
MQ	249.53		214.41		221.85	196.84		182.22		185.53	150.67		140.40		143.80

图8 2019年6月各光伏电站太阳辐射预报值和逐1 h滚动订正值的均方根误差 (a)HK,(b)DJHN,(c)SY,(d)MQ

Fig.8 The RMSE of solar radiation forecast and its corrected value under 1 h rolling correction scheme at photovoltaic power stations of Gansu Province in June 2019 (a) HK, (b) DJHN, (c) SY, (d) MQ

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