干旱气象 ›› 2020, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 280-289.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2020)-02-0280

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

台风“温比亚”(1818)影响辽东半岛的预报分析

梁军1,冯呈呈1,张胜军2,刘晓初1,张黎红1,李婷婷1   

  1. 1.辽宁省大连市气象台,辽宁 大连 116001;
    2.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081
  • 出版日期:2020-04-28 发布日期:2020-04-28
  • 作者简介:梁军(1967— ),女,正研级高级工程师,主要从事短期天气预报和研究工作. E-mail: qinldj@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41775048,41575063)、环渤海区域科技协同创新基金(QYXM201615, QYXM201702, QYXM201711,QYXM201801,QYXM201805,QYXM201807)和中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-029)共同资助

Analysis on Operational Forecast of Typhoon Rumiba(1818)Affecting Liaodong Peninsula

LIANG Jun1, FENG Chengcheng1, ZHANG Shengjun2, LIU Xiaochu1,ZHANG Lihong1, LI Tingting1   

  1. 1. Dalian Meteorological Observatory of Liaoning Province, Dalian 116001, Liaoning, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Online:2020-04-28 Published:2020-04-28

摘要: 2018年第18号台风“温比亚”北上引发辽东半岛普降大暴雨,局部特大暴雨,但业务数值预报模式在其路径、强度和降水预报方面均有一定偏差。利用中国气象局热带气旋年鉴、常规和非常规气象观测资料、FY-2G卫星云顶亮温(TBB)和欧洲中期数值预报中心ERA-Interim全球再分析资料(0.125°×0.125°),对台风“温比亚”影响辽东半岛的预报进行分析。结果表明:(1)“温比亚”预报的难点是登陆后转向点及转向后路径的预报,西风槽和大陆高压东移阻挡了“温比亚”的西行;台风“苏力”的西北移,导致副高位置偏北,其与东北地区高压脊形成的高压带则有利于“温比亚”的北抬。(2)“温比亚”和“苏力”2个台风与副高之间所形成的东南风低空急流,提供了持续的水汽和能量,既有利于“温比亚”强度的维持,又诱发辽东半岛强降水的持续发生。(3)“温比亚”在变性过程中与西风槽以及低空急流相互作用有利于其北侧螺旋云系的发展。强降水落区与台风低层环流北侧辐合带内冷暖平流活动密切相关,冷暖平流交汇处的能量锋带对强降水有较好的指示作用。(4)数值预报模式对转向点和转向后的路径预报存在较大分歧,除了参考集合预报产品外,还可采用相似预报手段,对比分析相似个例和误差小的数值预报模式的大尺度环境场,借助于数值预报产品和相似个例进行订正。

关键词: 辽东半岛, 台风, 暴雨, 变性, 预报分析

Abstract: Based on CMA Tropical Cyclone Yearbook,FY-2G temperature of brightness blackbody (TBB) product (0.1°×0.1°), hourly rainfall observations from automatic weather stations, conventional observation and ERA-Interim reanalysis data(0.125°×0.125°), the heavy precipitation process in the Liaodong Peninsula caused by typhoon Rumiba (1818) was analyzed preliminarily. The major conclusions are as follows: (1) The difficulty of “Rumiba” prediction was to predict the turning point and the track after landing. The eastward movement of westerly trough and continental high blocked the westward movement of “Rumiba”. The northward position of the subtropical high caused by northwesterly movement of typhoon “Soulik” and the continental high in northeast China were favorable for the northward movement of “Rumiba”. (2) The low-level southeast jet forming between typhoon “Rumiba”, “Soulik” and the subtropical high provided continuous water vapor and energy, which was conducive to maintaining the intensity of “Rumiba” and inducing continuous occurrence of the heavy precipitation in the Liaodong Peninsula. (3) The interaction of “Rumiba” in transformation process with westerly trough and low-level jet was beneficial to the development of spiraling cloud system on its north side. The heavy precipitation area was closely related to the cold and warm advection in the convergence zone of the north side of low-level typhoon circulation. And the energy front zone appearing at the intersection of cold and warm advection was a good indication for heavy rainfall. (4) There were great differences in the prediction of turning point and path after turning from numerical prediction models. In addition to referring to ensemble prediction products, the similarity prediction method can also be used to compare and analyze the large-scale environmental field of the similar individual cases, and the correction can be carried out with the help of the numerical prediction products and the similar individual cases.

Key words: Liaodong Peninsula, typhoon, storm rainfall, extratropical transion, forecast analysis

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