宁夏高速公路大风灾害风险评价

干旱气象 ›› 2020, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (03): 504-510.

宁夏高速公路大风灾害风险评价

马蕾1,2，刘垚1,2，武万里1,2，缑晓辉1,2，苏占胜1,2

1.中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室，宁夏银川750002；
2.宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室，宁夏银川750002

出版日期:2020-06-28 发布日期:2020-07-02

Risk Assessment of Gale Disaster on Expressways in Ningxia Province

MA Lei1,2, LIU Yao1,2, WU Wanli1,2,GOU Xiaohui1,2, SU Zhansheng1,2#br#

1. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk
Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, CMA, Yinchuan 750002, China;
2. Ningxia Key Lab of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and reduction, Yinchuan 750002, China

Online:2020-06-28 Published:2020-07-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用气象观测数据、交通数据和经济社会数据，选取不同等级的大风日数、车流量、道路密度、地形高度、河网密度、桥涵个数、桥涵密度、植被覆盖度等14个评价指标，从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性三方面建立高速公路大风灾害评估模型，使用模糊综合评价法和层次分析法计算各因子权重，开展宁夏高速公路大风灾害风险评价。结果表明：宁夏高速公路大风灾害风险石嘴山市北部和吴忠市南部高、区内中北部和南部低。其中，京藏高速石嘴山市北段为高风险；京藏高速石嘴山市中段、中卫市南段及福银高速吴忠市段为次高风险；其他路段为中等到较低风险。风险评价结果与实际高速公路大风灾害的发生有较好的一致性。

关键词: 大风, 高速公路, 风险评价, Arc GIS

Abstract: Based on the database collected from meteorology observations, transportation system and social economy including 14 evaluation indicators such as gale days with different grades, traffic flow, road density, topographic height, river network density, number of bridge and culvert, bridge and culvert density, vegetation coverage, an expressway gale disaster assessing model was built up to assess the risk of gale disaster along the expressways in Ningxia Province from three aspects including risk of disaster-causing factors, environment sensitivity to gale disaster and vulnerability of gale disaster-bearing body. Then the weight of each influencing indicator was calculated by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process in order to conduct evaluation of gale disaster risk on expressways in Ningxia. The results indicate that the higher risk areas of gale disaster along expressways in Ningxia Province were mainly located in north section of Shizuishan and south section of Wuzhong, while the risk was lower in the north central and southern part in Ningxia Province. The northern parts of Shizuishan section of G6 (Beijing-Tibet expressway) suffered the high risk of gale disaster, followed by the middle part of Shizuishan section of G6, southern part of Zhongwei plus Wuzhong section of Fuzhou-Yinchuan expressway, while other sections bored medium and low risk of gale disaster. The results of risk assessment were in good agreement with the actual occurrence of gale disasters on expressways.

Key words: gale disaster, expressway, risk assessment, Arc GIS

中图分类号:

P429

马蕾, 刘垚, 武万里, 缑晓辉, 苏占胜, . 宁夏高速公路大风灾害风险评价[J]. 干旱气象, 2020, 38(03): 504-510.

MA Lei, LIU Yao, WU Wanli, GOU Xiaohui, SU Zhansheng, . Risk Assessment of Gale Disaster on Expressways in Ningxia Province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2020, 38(03): 504-510.

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