关键词: 极大风速, 时空特征, 气候变暖, 极值Ⅰ型分布, 吉林省

Abstract: Based on maximum wind speed data from 1971 to 2018 and extreme wind speed data from 2005 to 2018 in Jilin Province, extreme wind speed data from 1971 to 2004 were estimated by using the gusty coefficient method, and then the sequences of extreme wind speed from 1971 to 2018 was formed. On this basis, the spatio-temporal variation characteristic of extreme wind speed and its relationship with climate warming were analyzed by using methods such as accumulated departure, extreme value distribution Ⅰ type, and Mann-Kendall test. The results are as follows: (1) With the increase of wind level, the occurrence frequency of gale above level 8 decreased rapidly. (2) The annual extreme wind speed had double peaks in spring and autumn and double valleys in winter and summer. (3) Since the 1970s, the annual mean extreme wind speed in Jilin Province decreased 0.9 m·s-1 per decade, and the frequency of gale over level 8 showed a decreasing trend year by year. (4) The average extreme wind speed and the extreme wind speed under 10-year to 50-year return periods both showed the distribution with high values in the northwest and low values in the southeast, and the largest value of extreme wind speed under 10-year to 50-year return periods in Changchun ranged from 33.9 to 40.7 m·s-1. (5) The annual mean extreme wind speed and annual mean temperature presented obvious inverse correlation and inverse phase relationship. The abrupt change of annual mean extreme wind speed occurred around 1988, which coincided with the sudden change of temperature in the northeast of China. (6) Although extreme wind speed in Jilin Province decreased obviously due to climate warming, there were still extreme gales. From 2011 to 2018, there were 95 gales above grade 10 and some gales were even above grade 13. Therefore, it is still necessary to strengthen gale prevention.

Key words: extreme wind speed, spatio-temporal characteristics, climate warming, extreme value distribution Ⅰ type, Jilin Province