关键词: 气候适宜性, 模型, 模糊数学法, 牡丹, 菏泽

Abstract: Based on meteorological index of sprouting stage, squaring stage, flowering stage of peony and daily meteorological data from 2001 to 2018 in Heze, three climatic suitability degrees of temperature, precipitation and sunshine were established at daily time scale by using the fuzzy mathematics method, and a comprehensive climate suitability model was established with the geometric average method. The results are as follows: (1) The climate suitability of peony changed with developmental period，the highest climate suitability was at flowering stage, and the lowest was at sprouting stage, the values were all around 0.5. (2) The mean value of climate suitability including temperature, precipitation and sunshine was 0.78, 0.24, 0.85, respectively, both temperature and sunshine could meet the need of peony growth, precipitation was a key meteorological factor affecting the climate suitability of peony. (3) Impacted by climate change, there were obvious inter-annual variations of peony climate suitability, with rising trend of temperature, precipitation and comprehensive climate suitability, while sunshine suitability presented decline trend. Overall, there was no significant negative effect of climate change on the main growth period of peony.

Key words: climatic suitability, model, fuzzy mathematical method, peony, Heze