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银川市灰霾天气环流分析及预报思路

纪晓玲1,2桑建人1,3马筛艳1郑鹏辉2马金仁2   

  1. 1. 宁夏气象防灾减灾重点试验室,宁夏 银川 750002;
    2. 宁夏气象台,宁夏 银川 750002;
    3. 宁夏气候中心,宁夏 银川 750002
  • 出版日期:2013-12-14 发布日期:2013-12-14
  • 作者简介:纪晓玲(1967 - ),女,汉族,硕士,正研级高工,主要从事灾害性天气预报及相关预报方法研究工作. E - mail:jixlingyc@163. com
  • 基金资助:

    宁夏科技攻关项目“宁夏灰霾天气形成机理、预报预测及防治对策研究”(KGX - 12 - 10 - 04)及“宁夏自然科学基金项目(NZ12280)共同资助

Circulation Analysis and Forecast Thoughts of Haze Weather in Yinchuan

JI Xiaoling1,2SANG Jianren1,3MA Shaiyan1ZHENG Penghui2MA Jinren2   

  1. 1. Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Yinchuan 750002,China;
    2. Ningxia Meteorological Observatory,Yinchuan 750002,China;
    3. Ningxia Climate Center,Yinchuan 750002,China
  • Online:2013-12-14 Published:2013-12-14

摘要:

以 2000 ~2009 年 416 次银川市发生的灰霾天气为研究对象,利用同期 NCEP 逐日再分析海平面气压场、500 hPa 形势场资料,分析了银川市灰霾天气发生的变化特征及易产生灰霾天气的中层环流形势和地面气压场分布特征,给出了灰霾天气预报思路。分析发现:银川市灰霾天气平均每年发生近42 d,最多可达61 d;一年四季均有可能发生,且季节变化明显,秋冬季是灰霾和持续性灰霾天气易发季节,特别是每年的 11 ~12 月;灰霾天气多发生在环流形势相对稳定的背景下,当 500 hPa 宁夏处于西北气流、平直西风气流、西南气流中,地面位于锋前暖区或气压梯度较小区域或锋面过境前后易出现灰霾天气,有时受暖高压脊控制也可以出现灰霾天气。在灰霾天气易发季节,当出现有利于发生灰霾天气的环流背景和地面气压场分布特征时,要综合分析大气环流形势演变、高低层系统配置状况、大气层结稳定状态和各种气象要素的变化,并结合卫星云图等观测资料来确定灰霾天气发生的可能性。

关键词: 灰霾天气, 环流分析, 预报思路

Abstract:

The haze forecast ideas given here were deduced by analyzing the variable characteristics of haze weather,the feature of the
circulation situation on the middle level and surface pressure field distribution which generally led to haze weather in Yinchuan. Based
on the NCEP daily reanalyzed sea level pressure(SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height field,416 haze weather cases which happened
in Yinchuan from 2000 to 2009 were studied and the analysis results indicated that the haze weathers occured about 42 d per year by
average and up to 61 d in the most in Yinchuan,and the haze weathers appeared easily in autumn and winter,especially in November
and December. The haze weathers usually occurred under a relatively stable situation,when it was the northwest flow,smooth westerly
flow,or southwest flow at the level of 500 hPa,and on the surface,Ningxia was in the warm region before the front,or the slight pres-
sure gradient area,or the front was nearly crossing Ningxia or just crossed. When Ningxia was controlled by warm ridge,it could also
lead to haze. In the seasons of haze weather occurs frequently,we should comprehensively analyze the evolution of atmospheric circula-
tion situation,configuration of systems at the up and bottom,the steady state of stratification and variabilities of each meteorological
facters,when it appears favorable circulation background and surface pressure distribution,we should combine the satellite images with
other observations to determine the possibility of haze weather occurrence.

Key words: haze, circulation, forecast idea

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