• CN 62-1175/P
• ISSN 1006-7639
• 双月刊
• 中国科技核心期刊
• 中国学术期刊综合评价数据库统计源期刊
• 中文科技期刊数据库收录期刊

• 业务技术应用 •

### 银川市路面温度预报与爆胎指数预报方法研究

1. 1． 宁夏气象服务中心，宁夏 银川 750002;
2． 宁夏气象台，宁夏 银川 750002;
3． 宁夏石嘴山市气象台，宁夏 石嘴山 750002
• 出版日期:2013-12-14 发布日期:2013-12-14
• 作者简介:马筛艳(1977 － )，女，陕西咸阳人，天气气候工程师，主要从事专业预报技术方法研究和专业气象服务． E － mail:nxmasy@163． com
• 基金资助:

宁夏气象局项目“宁夏交通气象预报服务系统建设”资助

### Study of Forecasting Method for Urban Road Temperature and the Index of Car Tire’s Explosion

1. 1． Ningxia Meteorological Service Centre，Yinchuan 750002，China;
2． Ningxia Meteorological Observatory，Yinchuan 750002，China;
3． Shizuishan Meteorological Observatory of Ningxia，Shizuishan 753002，China
• Online:2013-12-14 Published:2013-12-14

Abstract:

The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of cement concrete pavement temperature and asphalt pavement tempera-
ture in Yinchuan City were researched by using observation data of two kinds of pavement’s temperature in July which is the hottest
month in the whole year，and the relationships between pavement temperature and air temperature，relative humidity，wind and other
meteorological factors were analyzed，finally，the pavement prediction model was built by using the statistical regression method． Corre-
sponding relationships between pavement temperature and air temperature，vehicle speed had been constructed based on this model，
and the standard as well as prediction method for the index of car tire’s explosion were established． The results show that there were
many factors leading to the car tire’s explosion，when air temperature was below 25 ℃，it was not easy for the tires to get too hot and
result in explosion even though it’s moving at a great speed，however，when air temperature was above 35 ℃，the pavement tempera-
ture might reach 70 ℃，and the tire was likely to explode when the car speed was above 66 km/h，and the possibility of tire explosion
got more serious when car speed was above 82 km/h． Due to the lack of large amount of observation data and samples，the test of the
model showed that this method had some shortcomings，however，it was worth using in the operation because it’s easy to understand，
at the same time it needs a few of input parameters which were easy to be obtained，so that it’s easy to operate． Moreover，the predic-
tion accuracy can basically meet the needs of operation work． The prediction effects could be better if the model could be modified with
the accumulation of observation data and samples in the future work．

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