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银川市路面温度预报与爆胎指数预报方法研究

马筛艳1马金仁2孙卫武3纪晓玲2缑晓辉1   

  1. 1. 宁夏气象服务中心,宁夏 银川 750002;
    2. 宁夏气象台,宁夏 银川 750002;
    3. 宁夏石嘴山市气象台,宁夏 石嘴山 750002
  • 出版日期:2013-12-14 发布日期:2013-12-14
  • 作者简介:马筛艳(1977 - ),女,陕西咸阳人,天气气候工程师,主要从事专业预报技术方法研究和专业气象服务. E - mail:nxmasy@163. com
  • 基金资助:

    宁夏气象局项目“宁夏交通气象预报服务系统建设”资助

Study of Forecasting Method for Urban Road Temperature and the Index of Car Tire’s Explosion

MA Shaiyan1MA Jinren2SUN Weiwu3JI Xiaoling2GOU Xiaohui1   

  1. 1. Ningxia Meteorological Service Centre,Yinchuan 750002,China;
    2. Ningxia Meteorological Observatory,Yinchuan 750002,China;
    3. Shizuishan Meteorological Observatory of Ningxia,Shizuishan 753002,China
  • Online:2013-12-14 Published:2013-12-14

摘要:

利用 7 月份银川市沥青、水泥 2 种路面温度实测资料,研究了银川市水泥、沥青城市道路路面温度特征及其与气温、相对湿度、风等气象要素的关系,采用统计回归方法,建立了路面温度统计预报模型。在此模型基础上,分析了气温、车速和路面温度之间的关系,继而建立了爆胎指数分级预报方法和标准。结果表明:导致汽车爆胎的因素有很多,但当气温低于 25 ℃时,即使是高速行驶的汽车,也不易因路面温度导致爆胎;而当气温高于 35 ℃时,路面温度可高达 70 ℃以上,此时车速在 66 km/h 以上就有可能爆胎,车速超过 82 km/h 时,爆胎的可能性非常大。通过对路面温度预报模型的检验表明,尽管建立的模型比较简单,也不能完全反应气象要素和路面温度之间更深层的关系,但是该模型的求解过程简单易懂,输入参数少且易于获得,可操作性强,预测精准度已满足业务需要,值得在业务中使用,在以后的业务中,通过不断的改进和完善,预报效果将得到进一步提升。

关键词: 路面温度, 预报模型, 胎内温度, 爆胎指数

Abstract:

The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of cement concrete pavement temperature and asphalt pavement tempera-
ture in Yinchuan City were researched by using observation data of two kinds of pavement’s temperature in July which is the hottest
month in the whole year,and the relationships between pavement temperature and air temperature,relative humidity,wind and other
meteorological factors were analyzed,finally,the pavement prediction model was built by using the statistical regression method. Corre-
sponding relationships between pavement temperature and air temperature,vehicle speed had been constructed based on this model,
and the standard as well as prediction method for the index of car tire’s explosion were established. The results show that there were
many factors leading to the car tire’s explosion,when air temperature was below 25 ℃,it was not easy for the tires to get too hot and
result in explosion even though it’s moving at a great speed,however,when air temperature was above 35 ℃,the pavement tempera-
ture might reach 70 ℃,and the tire was likely to explode when the car speed was above 66 km/h,and the possibility of tire explosion
got more serious when car speed was above 82 km/h. Due to the lack of large amount of observation data and samples,the test of the
model showed that this method had some shortcomings,however,it was worth using in the operation because it’s easy to understand,
at the same time it needs a few of input parameters which were easy to be obtained,so that it’s easy to operate. Moreover,the predic-
tion accuracy can basically meet the needs of operation work. The prediction effects could be better if the model could be modified with
the accumulation of observation data and samples in the future work.

Key words:  pavement temperature, forecast model, air temperature, index of car’s tire explosion

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