J4 ›› 2008, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 83-88.

• 业务应用技术 • 上一篇    下一篇


景怀玺1 ,徐科展1 ,石圆圆1 ,白虎志2   

  1. 1.甘肃省白银市气象局,甘肃 白银 730900; 2. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃 兰州 730020
  • 收稿日期:2007-12-14 修回日期:2008-01-15 出版日期:2008-03-31 发布日期:2008-03-31
  • 作者简介:景怀玺(1964 - ) ,男,甘肃会宁人,工程师,主要从事天气气候预测研究. E - mail: jinghx@sina. com
  • 基金资助:

    甘肃省气象局“河西精细化和灾害性天气预报业务系统”( 2007 - 05)和白银市科学技术局“白银市地质气象灾害预报预警系统”(GK20062 - 3 - 011A)共同资助

Foreca st of Prec ip ita tion over 10 mm Ba sed on T213Ma thema tica l Foreca st Products in M idsummer in Ba iy in

J ING Huaixi1 , XU kezhan1 , SH I Yuanyuan1 , BA I Huzhi2   

  1. 1. B aiy in M eteorological B ureau of Gansu Province, B aiyin 730900, China;2. Insititute of A rid M eteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China
  • Received:2007-12-14 Revised:2008-01-15 Online:2008-03-31 Published:2008-03-31


基于M ICAPS系统,利用T213数值预报格点资料、预报关键区34个站点的高空资料以及市内4县区不同时次的本站气压和日降水量资料,通过分析白银市中雨以上降水的天气特征,归纳出中雨以上降水的天气形势,并据此进行客观定量化分型;选取对白银市中雨以上降水具有明显物理意义的消空指标和预报因子,利用PP数值释用方法,建立了白银市盛夏中雨以上降水的短期预报模型。对2007年6~8月进行试报,预报准确率平均达66. 7% ,预报效果较好

关键词: T213, 数值释用, 降水预报


Based on theM ICAPS, T213 mathematical forecast p roducts, aerological observations from 34 stations in forecast key area and p ressure, p recip itation data for different time in Baiyin, the weather patterns of p recip itation over 10 mm in Baiyin are generalized by analyzing the synop tic character, and according to them an objective quantification group ing ismade. Some indices and p rediction factorswith physical significance on p recip itation over 10 mm are selected, and a short - period forecastmodel for p recip itation over 10 mm is built by using the PP numerical interp retable and app lied method. Finally, a forecast test from June to August in 2007 ismade, it shows a excellent results that the average forecast accuracy reaches 66. 7%.

Key words: T213, numerical interp retation and app lication, p recip itation forecast