北极海冰的气候变化与20世纪90年代的突变

J4 ›› 2005, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (3): 1-11.

• 论文 • 下一篇

北极海冰的气候变化与20世纪90年代的突变

方之芳^1,2，张丽³，程彦杰⁴

1.成都信息工程学院，四川成都610041:2.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所四川成都610071:3.中国科学院大气物理研究所，LASG,北京100029:4.中国气象科学研究院，北京100081

收稿日期:2005-07-25 修回日期:2005-08-12 出版日期:2005-09-30 发布日期:2005-09-30
作者简介:方之芳(1943-)，女，浙江人，教授，主要从事海冰、大尺度环流和气候系统研究.E-mail:fangzf@tfol, com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(40105006)和四川省攻关项目(0 2US0 23-016)共同资助

The Decrease of the Arctic Sea Ice and the Abrupt Changes of Sea Ice in 1990s

FANU Zhi-fang^1,2,ZHANU li³，CHENU Yan一jie⁴

1 .Chengdu University of Information "hechnology, Chengdu 610041 ,China;
2, Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA，Chcngdu 610071，China;
3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Iicijing 100029,China;
4. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Scicncc，Iicijing 100081 ,China

Received:2005-07-25 Revised:2005-08-12 Online:2005-09-30 Published:2005-09-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

应用英国Hadlcy气候研究中心1968~-2000年的10Xl。的北半球逐月海冰密集度资料，使用EOF分解等统计方法，探讨北极海冰的气候变化趋势、海冰的突变、海冰的季节持续性和各季的特色。结果表明:(1)自1968年以来，北极海冰的减小是北半球海冰变化的总趋势;海冰的趋势变化在海冰的年际总变化中占有相当重要的地位，可达50%左右。冬春季主要减少区域在格陵兰海、巴伦支海和白令海;夏秋季海冰减少是唯一趋势，中心在北冰洋边缘的喀拉海、拉普捷夫海、东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海、波弗特海。(2)20世纪80年代中后期北极海冰已出现减小趋势，在20 世纪90年代，海冰又出现范围和面积的突然减少，中心在格陵兰海和巴伦支海;即海冰减少是加速的，其变化程度已远远超过一般的自然变化。(3)海冰有很好的季节持续性，有很强的隔季相关，也有较好的隔年相关;各季节海冰分布型之间有很好的联系，表现为海冰分布型的总体变化趋势是一致的，在海冰的减少中也体现了分布型的特征

关键词: 北极海冰, 海冰减少趋势, 海冰的季节持续性, 海冰突变

Abstract:

Based on the Hadllcy Centre Arctic sea一ice data for the period 1968~2000，it is found that the decrease tendency of the Arctic sea一ice in the North Hemisphere is very obvious. Since 1968，the sea一ice extent decrease was appeared in the Barents Sca, Urecnland Sca and Bering Sca during winter, and the kola Sca and East Siberia Sca during summer. During 1990s the ecrease was suddenly appeared in all areas of the Arctic Ocean，ice. abrupt change, especially in the Barents Sca and Urecnland Sca. "hhe sea ice change over the Arctic Ocean is larger than the normal nature variation. "hhe sea一ice seasonal patterns have the seasonal persistence and high relationship with the pattern before 1一通seasons. "hherefore the Sca一ice decrease tendency should maintain long time during the recent period.

Key words: Arctic sea-ice, decrease tendency of thesea-ice, sea-ice seasonal persistence, abrupt changes of sea-ice

中图分类号:

P467

方之芳, 张丽, 程彦杰. 北极海冰的气候变化与20世纪90年代的突变[J]. J4, 2005, 23(3): 1-11.

FANG Zhi-Fang, ZHANG Li, CHENG Pan-Jie. The Decrease of the Arctic Sea Ice and the Abrupt Changes of Sea Ice in 1990s[J]. J4, 2005, 23(3): 1-11.

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北极海冰的气候变化与20世纪90年代的突变

The Decrease of the Arctic Sea Ice and the Abrupt Changes of Sea Ice in 1990s

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