关键词: CUACE模式, 误差分析, 检验订正, 兰州市

Abstract:

Based on the observation data of six kinds of pollutants issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection from September 2014 to August 2015 in Lanzhou of Gansu Province, the deviation of 24 h forecast results of the CUACE model was analyzed firstly, then the test and correction were carried out by using the error rolling linear regression correction method. The results are as follows: (1) The primary pollutant in Lanzhou was PM10 and followed by PM2.5. (2) For SO2, the forecast results of the CUACE model could be used directly. For O3、NO2、PM2.5 and PM10, when the forecast values were level 2, the accuracy of forecast results was higher, which could be used directly also. (3) When the forecast values of the CUACE model were level 1 for O3 and CO, the accuracy of level forecast could be increased by 1.1%-5.5% after the deviation correction based on ten-day error rolling linear regression correction method. (4) For other elements, when the forecast values of the CUACE model were other levels, the five-day or ten-day error rolling linear regression correction method was adopted to correct the deviation, then add or subtract a certain value, the accuracy of level forecast would be increased by 8.7%-75%.

Key words:  the CUACE model, error analysis, test and correction, Lanzhou