祁连山西营河流域春季融雪洪峰流量趋势预报方法研究

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2024-05-0776

干旱气象 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 776-783.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2024-05-0776

祁连山西营河流域春季融雪洪峰流量趋势预报方法研究

赵成先¹(), 罗建华¹, 王学良², 党志英³, 祁进贤³, 刘俊峰⁴, 韩春坛⁴()

1.新疆水利发展投资（集团）有限公司，新疆乌鲁木齐 830009
2.甘肃省水文站，甘肃兰州 730000
3.祁连县林业和草原局（祁连山国家公园祁连管理分局），青海祁连 810400
4.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2023-05-22 修回日期:2023-11-03 出版日期:2024-10-31 发布日期:2024-11-17
通讯作者: 韩春坛（1985—），男，宁夏固原人，高级工程师，主要从事寒区水文研究工作。E-mail：hancht@lzb.ac.cn。
作者简介:赵成先(1978—)，男，新疆乌鲁木齐人，高级工程师，主要从事水利工程运营管理工作。E-mail：303378664@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510500);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR7RA043);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(23JRRA664);新疆额河建管局技术服务项目(KKYG08/2021)

Study on forecasting method of spring snowmelt flood discharge in Xiying River Basin of Qilian Mountains

ZHAO Chengxian¹(), LUO Jianhua¹, WANG Xueliang², DANG Zhiying³, QI Jinxian³, LIU Junfeng⁴, HAN Chuntan⁴()

1. Xinjiang Water Conservancy Development Investment （Group） Co. LTD， Urumqi 830009， China
2. Gansu Hydrological Stations， Lanzhou 730000， China
3. Qilian Forestry and Grassland Administration/Qilian Management Branch of Qilian Mountain National Park， Qilian 810400， Qinghai， China
4. Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands， Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources， Chinese Academy of Sciences， Lanzhou 730000， China

Received:2023-05-22 Revised:2023-11-03 Online:2024-10-31 Published:2024-11-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

山区春季融雪洪水模拟及预报是寒区水文研究的难点，目前的预报模型主要采用复杂的积雪消融能量平衡模型，并考虑了冻土、植被等下垫面和产汇流过程，导致模型结构复杂，并且这种方法在预报中需要大量的数据支撑，在业务预报中应用困难，同时预测结果也具有很多不确定性。本文利用西营河流域冬季气象站点雪深观测资料与多种积雪遥感数据，结合其控制断面九条岭水文站洪水观测资料，利用统计学方法建立简单有效的春季融雪洪水预报方法。研究表明，利用3—4月MODIS积雪遥感产品以及融合微波遥感雪深产品的流域雪水当量信息能够很好地反映西营河九条岭水文站春季融雪洪水大小。这种预报方法可为其他稳定积雪区的融雪洪水预报提供有益的借鉴。

关键词: 融雪洪水, 洪水预报, MODIS, 雪深, 西营河

Abstract:

Spring snowmelt flood simulation and forecasting in the mountainous region has been a difficulty of cold region hydrological study. Current forecasting studies mainly use complex snow melt energy balance models, and take into account underlying surfaces such as frozen soil, vegetation, and runoff processes, resulting in complex model structures. This method needs a lot of data support and has a great uncertainty in prediction, which leads to difficulties in application in operational forecasting. In this paper, a simple and effective spring snowmelt flood forecasting method is established by using statistical methods and the snow depth observation data in winter of meteorological stations as well as a variety of snow remote sensing data in the Xiying River Basin, combined with the flood observation data of Jiutiaoling Hydrology Station on its control section. The study shows that the snow water equivalent information of the basin from MODIS snow cover products in March and April and the integration of microwave remote sensing snow depth products can well reflect the magnitude of spring snowmelt flood at Jiutiaoling Hydrological Station in the Xiying River Basin. This method provides a useful reference for snowmelt flood forecasting in other stable snow cover areas.

Key words: snowmelt flood, flood forecasting, MODIS, snow depth, Xiying River

中图分类号:

P456

赵成先, 罗建华, 王学良, 党志英, 祁进贤, 刘俊峰, 韩春坛. 祁连山西营河流域春季融雪洪峰流量趋势预报方法研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(5): 776-783.

ZHAO Chengxian, LUO Jianhua, WANG Xueliang, DANG Zhiying, QI Jinxian, LIU Junfeng, HAN Chuntan. Study on forecasting method of spring snowmelt flood discharge in Xiying River Basin of Qilian Mountains[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(5): 776-783.

图/表 8

图1 研究区概况

Fig.1 Overview of the study area

图2 九条岭水文站春季最大洪峰流量与日径流量散点图

Fig.2 The scatter diagram between maximum peak flood discharge in spring and daily runoff at Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station

图3 九条岭水文站3—5月日平均径流量与气温之间的统计关系

Fig.3 Statistical relationship between daily mean runoff at Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station and air temperature from March to May

图4 九条岭水文站5月最大日径流量与门源（a）、乌鞘岭（b）气象站11月—次年4月累积雪深的统计关系

Fig.4 The statistical relationship between maximum daily runoff at Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station in May and the accumulated snow depth from November to next April at Mengyuan (a) and Wushaoling (b) meteorological stations

图5 西营河流域2001年以来的春季气温、年平均雪水当量（a）以及积雪面积（b）变化趋势

Fig.5 Trends in spring temperature, average annual snow water equivalent （a）, and snowpack area （b） in the Xiying River Basin since 2001

表1 春季不同月份九条岭水文站最大日径流量与不同时段MODIS平均积雪面积关系

Tab.1 Relationship between MODIS snow cover area and maximum daily runoff in different months in spring at Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station

最大日径流时段	MODIS积雪面积时段	统计公式	拟合决定系数（R²）
5月	1—2月	$Q m =$ 2.098 1e^{0.001 9}^S	0.15
5月	3月	$Q m$ =4.278 5e^-8E-04^S	0.01
5月	4月	$Q m$ =8.300 9e^{0.001 7}^S	0.21
5月	3—4月	$Q m = 8.91 e 0.003 4 S$	0.75
4月	4月	$Q m = 6.322 8 e 0.006 4 S$	0.43

表1 春季不同月份九条岭水文站最大日径流量与不同时段MODIS平均积雪面积关系

Tab.1 Relationship between MODIS snow cover area and maximum daily runoff in different months in spring at Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station

最大日径流时段	MODIS积雪面积时段	统计公式	拟合决定系数（R²）
5月	1—2月	$Q m =$ 2.098 1e^{0.001 9}^S	0.15
5月	3月	$Q m$ =4.278 5e^-8E-04^S	0.01
5月	4月	$Q m$ =8.300 9e^{0.001 7}^S	0.21
5月	3—4月	$Q m = 8.91 e 0.003 4 S$	0.75
4月	4月	$Q m = 6.322 8 e 0.006 4 S$	0.43

图6 九条岭水文站4月最大日径流量与平均积雪面积（a）及5月最大日径流量与3—5月（b）、3—4月（c）平均积雪面积的统计关系

Fig.6 Statistical relationships between maximum daily runoff of Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station and the average snow-covered area in April (a) and between maximum daily runoff in May and the average snow-covered area from March to May (b) and from March to April (c)

图7 九条岭水文站3月最大日径流量与1—2月雪水当量（a）、4月最大日径流量与4月雪水当量（b）及5月最大日径流量与3—4月雪水当量（c）的统计关系

Fig.7 Statistical relationships between maximum daily runoff of Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station in March and snow water equivalent from January to February (a), between maximum daily runoff and snow water equivalent in April (b) and between maximum daily runoff in May and snow water equivalent from March to April (c)

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祁连山西营河流域春季融雪洪峰流量趋势预报方法研究

Study on forecasting method of spring snowmelt flood discharge in Xiying River Basin of Qilian Mountains

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